Posts Tagged ‘electoral college’

New analysis of post-election PLP erodes Yvette’s leadership front-runner status

05/06/2014, 05:29:20 PM

Signs that preparations are being made in earnest for a future leadership campaign. The talk at the fringes of the Progress conference last Saturday was of succession and as John Rentoul has noted, the likely Chuka versus Yvette contest, if Labour loses the next election. The universal consensus is that the one racing certainty is that the next leader will not be an A.W.M. – Another White Male.

Now, Uncut has seen a detailed analysis compiled by consultants involved in the last leadership election, but unaffiliated at this stage for 2015, which suggests that one of Yvette’s big advantages might not be quite so advantageous after all. While Chuka leads on almost all poll measures with voters and non-activist members, Yvette has been assumed to hold a commanding lead in the PLP.

Partially, this is a consequence of the residual strength of the Brownite machine and partially the time Yvette has had to lobby and persuade her parliamentary peers. As a member of the 1997 intake she has had far longer to build a personal base of support in the PLP than Chuka.

However, according to this new analysis, the likely influx of new MPs will erode some of this advantage. If Labour does not become the largest party, but still does make some progress – as is flagged the most likely scenario in the analysis – the party will likely win between 270 and 290 seats (it currently holds 257 seats). This is based on various permutations of Lib Dem, Labour and Conservative performance.

It would entail Labour gaining 13 to 33 new seats. Added to the 82 Labour MPs elected in 2010 or after this would mean 95 to 115 MPs were from Chuka’s intake or later. On this basis there would still be a significant pre-2010 PLP majority of 175 MPs.

But these figures do not incorporate the large numbers of Labour MPs who have either confirmed they will stand down, or are currently considering their position. At the next election 64 Labour MPs will have been in service for over twenty years with 30 or more current MPs expected to stand down.


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Late poll puts the cat among the pigeons

12/09/2010, 01:24:29 PM

Today’s Sunday Times poll has set pigeons among cats and tossed works into spanners. Navigating the Byzantine wiles of the electoral college, You Gov has picked perceived wisdom up by the lapels, given it a good shake, and dumped it in the recycling bin by predicting a wafer thin victory for Ed Miliband.

Although the full figures have not yet been released, the poll shows David Miliband ahead 36% to 32% on 1st preferences, with Ed overhauling him 51% to 49% when 2nd preferences, 3rd preferences and the result of the Doggets Coat & Badge are factored in.

Over at Political Betting, Mike Smithson has a more detailed breakdown of the figures, which indicate Ed M will sneak the ‘Members’ section 52% to 48%,  romp home amongst the ‘Trade Unionists’ 57% to 43%, but fall flat with ‘MPs and MEPs’, losing 44% -56% to David.

The response from the two camps has been predictable. “We are not complacent but confident” – David. “The Party is uniting behind us” – Ed.

Privately, however, there is growing concern amongst MPs and senior party activists that the disparity between Trade Union support for Ed and Parliamentary support for David raises  the spectre of a ‘nightmare scenario’ , in which one of the brothers wins with a mandate from only one of three sections of the college.


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