by Jonathan Todd
Labour doubters should become believers about our general election prospects. Here are five reasons for optimism:
- Boris Johnson will never again be the political force that he was in December 2019
Labour misfired in enabling the December 2019 election and in the campaign, proving that something (Get Brexit Done) beats nothing (Labour’s implausible Brexit policy).
Johnson was fortunate in his opponents but ruthless in seizing the opportunities that they afforded him. He will never be so lucky or commanding again.
“All wars are fought twice, the first time on the battlefield, the second time in memory.”
Patrick Radden Keefe opens his bestselling book about Northern Ireland with this quote from Viet Thanh Nguyen.
We have all fought on the battlefields of Covid. These painful memories now meet the troubling reality that our sacrifices were not matched in Downing Street.
Johnson secured this residence by telling a battle-weary country that he would end the Brexit wars. Now Lord Frost has resigned from his government because Brexit is not done.
- The next general election will not be about Brexit
Liz Truss has added Lord Frost’s Brexit responsibilities to her Foreign Policy portfolio. She might come to the same conclusion that Johnson came to when holding that office: the best way to promotion is to resign and attack the prime minister from the right on Brexit.
This manoeuvre might work for Truss with the Conservative Party. It won’t work with the rest of the country.
We are tired of Brexit. We do not want to refight old battles. We just want things to work properly.
Covid is now, of course, the biggest barrier to normal life and Johnson’s inability to meet this challenge is central to his diminishment. It remains to be seen whether Covid will be the core issue of the next general election. Hopefully, because we will have decisively moved beyond Covid’s pandemic phase, not.
But Brexit, the issue that galvanised the Conservatives 2019 voting coalition, won’t be.
- Johnson’s kingdom of sand bequeaths little to the next Tory leader
John Major could take the rough edges off Thatcherism and win in 1992. There are plenty of rough edges for a Tory successor to Johnson to polish. But little coherent mission.