Today’s Sunday Times poll has set pigeons among cats and tossed works into spanners. Navigating the Byzantine wiles of the electoral college, You Gov has picked perceived wisdom up by the lapels, given it a good shake, and dumped it in the recycling bin by predicting a wafer thin victory for Ed Miliband.
Although the full figures have not yet been released, the poll shows David Miliband ahead 36% to 32% on 1st preferences, with Ed overhauling him 51% to 49% when 2nd preferences, 3rd preferences and the result of the Doggets Coat & Badge are factored in.
Over at Political Betting, Mike Smithson has a more detailed breakdown of the figures, which indicate Ed M will sneak the ‘Members’ section 52% to 48%, romp home amongst the ‘Trade Unionists’ 57% to 43%, but fall flat with ‘MPs and MEPs’, losing 44% -56% to David.
The response from the two camps has been predictable. “We are not complacent but confident” – David. “The Party is uniting behind us” – Ed.
Privately, however, there is growing concern amongst MPs and senior party activists that the disparity between Trade Union support for Ed and Parliamentary support for David raises the spectre of a ‘nightmare scenario’ , in which one of the brothers wins with a mandate from only one of three sections of the college.
