Archive for July, 2010

Julia Gillard has got what it takes to win, writes Sue Regan

19/07/2010, 05:40:40 PM

The Australian federal election campaign is already proving to be a hard fought contest. Australian elections tend to be volatile and unpredictable and it is far from certain who will come out on top on 21st August. But it does look increasingly promising that the current Labor government could be returned to power – a prospect highly unlikely less than a month ago. So what’s changed? Two bold moves have pushed Labor’s poll ratings from the doldrums to an election winning (just) lead.

The first move was a change of leader. On 24th June, Kevin Rudd, the then Prime Minister resigned in the knowledge that he had fatally lost the support of the parliamentary Labor party, the Labor caucus. Julia Gillard, the then deputy prime minister, stepped up and became Australia’s first female prime minister. It was the first time the Labor caucus had removed a leader in their first term as prime minister. The move was rapid, certainly ruthless and many would say premature. Polling released the day after the coup suggest Rudd could have won the coming election. But most commentators agree that the poll lead now enjoyed by Labor is the result of the Gillard-factor.

Julia Gillard (born in Wales and citing Nye Bevan as one of her political heroes) commands wide public support. Tony Abbot (most famously known for his choice of swimwear) is the leader of the opposition (a coalition between the Liberals and the smaller National Party) and consistently lags in double figures behind Gillard in ‘preferred prime minister’ polling. 

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Ignore the bookies, the Australian election will be a close run thing says Tom Cameron

19/07/2010, 05:36:36 PM

For the first time ever an Australian Prime Minister who’s not a bloke has taken the charming five minute drive from Parliament House to the Canberra residence of the Governor General and advised the Queen’s representative of a Federal election date.  That in itself is a terrific thing. 

Interestingly, for the first time since 1993 neither of the two main party leaders – Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott – have previously faced the people in their bid to become the nation’s leader.  It’s also unprecedented that a Prime Minister has challenged and successfully deposed their first term colleague as party leader and sought their own mandate from the people only a few weeks after such a coup. 

And this coming contest will be only the second August election in Australia’s history, the last being back in the 1940s.  So there are quite a few rarities on offer in this 2010 Federal election, but not nearly so many predictabilities. 

If there is one tried and tested way to smartly pick Australian election results at the start of the campaign, it would be to check the bookies odds.  Rarely if ever do the punters end up getting it wrong.  So it is some surprise to concentrate one’s attention Down Under now and find not just a swiftly changed political landscape of the post-Rudd type, but an election scene that the book makers believe Labour will dominate. 

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As Australia goes to the polls, Labor hope for a narrow win

19/07/2010, 05:26:53 PM

On Saturday, after just three weeks in office, Labor Prime Minister Julia Gillard has called a General Election. She has moved rapidly since deposing Kevin Rudd. Neutralising negatives on climate change, immigration and on the mining tax she has seen a turn-around in Labour’s fortunes in the polls. The most recent poll gives Labor a 10 point lead over the opposition – 55-45, with votes coming almost equally from the Tories and from the Greens.

This is a high-stakes election, there hasn’t been a one-term government in Australia since the Depression. The (extraordinarily short) three year term gives a virtually automatic re-election to governments. And Labor should be riding high – Australia hasn’t had a recession, the minerals boom continues and the government have done well on issues from health care reform through to the Apology to the ‘stolen generation’ of Aboriginal children. But, as Gillard has admitted, the government lost its way. Rudd called climate change the ‘greatest moral challenge of our time’, and the voters responded strongly to this. Unfortunately, the legislation stalled and rather than attack the Greens and the Liberals who would have blocked it in the Senate, Rudd took all the blame on himself.  The Labor Party fell in the polls and looked unelectable. That’s when the ruthless unsentimentality of Australian Labor kicked in.

And it’s a important election for British Labour. The sister party relationship with the ALP is the closest we have – it’s not just the shared language and the historic links. There’s a living, vital connection. The modernising of Australia led by Hawke and Keating in the 80s an early 90s gave a policy inspiration to New Labour and a friendly home for visitors. In turn when we were in office over the last 13 years many Australians have visited. In 2007 I was able to work on the Australian election and afterwards helped to facilitate links between Australian and British ministers.

To kick off coverage we’ve go two voices. Tom Cameron is an Australian special adviser who worked in Victoria Street before and during the General Election. Sue Regan was until recently Chief Executive of the Resolution Foundation.

John McTernan is guest editing Labour Uncut for the next ten days. He writes for The Scotsman and The Daily Telegraph.

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Labour must start to make its case on the economy, says Nick McDonald

19/07/2010, 12:46:46 PM

The leadership contest offers the chance for a debate about the future of our party. That debate is important; it will define us for the next decade. But whilst we must reformulate what it means to be a progressive party, and be seen to do so, debate will not win us the next election.

To do that we have to convince the electorate once again, not that we are progressive, but that we are trustworthy and that we have the right economic polices. Moreover, we must persuade the public that the economic decisions the Coalition Government is now taking will be disastrous for this country in the long-term. That is largely how Labour won power in 1997 and it is how we will win again. It is natural and necessary that we turn inwards after defeat and re-evaluate what the Labour Party stands for, but let’s not equivocate too long; we need to get back at them, and soon.

The party that develops the best lexicon to explain its economic position will win the next election. Voters do not necessarily care that cancelling the Future Jobs Fund is simply wrong, or that cancelling school building projects, or transport projects, is wrong. However, they will care if they believe that cuts will harm growth, or remove confidence, or adversely affect the housing market.

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John Woodcock argues the defence spending row exposes Osborne’s spin

19/07/2010, 09:19:51 AM

George Osborne may be flavour of the month in Conservative associations and media comment pages, but the latest spending row between him and Defence Secretary Liam Fox has underlined a major weakness that Labour must exploit.

This appears to be an administration intent on learning from New Labour’s mistake of coming too slow to the table with fundamental reform. There is a speed and ferocity with which the Tories, aided and abetted by the Lib Dems, are seeking to embed a new presumption that public spending is bad while eye-watering cuts are wholesome and necessary.

What has been signalled so far surpasses the shrillest of Labour’s pre-election warnings – warnings that were rubbished as scare-mongering. Prior to victory, the Conservative leader gave the impression you could get spending back into balance simply by taking a Kim and Aggie approach to government waste.

Yet for all they could rightly protest to have been deceived, the public are hardly manning the barricades or demanding a re-run of the election. Attitudes may change substantially once the cuts begin to bite, but Labour cannot just sit back and wait for that to happen.

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Monday News Review

19/07/2010, 07:35:54 AM

Time for a chair?

John Cruddas wants to be chair of the Labour Party

Jon Cruddas, who has announced he would like to run as chairman of the Labour Party, admitted he found the politicians’ attempt to distance themselves from the Gordon Brown’s administration “unedifying”. He told Sky News’ Adam Boulton he was concerned by the “velocity by which people are running from their own involvement in some of the decisions” saying he would respect them more for standing by the choices they had made. – Sky News

Left-wing Labour MP Jon Cruddas has called for the party to have an elected chairman in future. Mr Cruddas told Sky News that he and stand-in leader Harriet Harman both backed the change, and that he would be interested in running for the job. It was time for the party to hold a thorough debate on policy following its “second-worst defeat since 1931” at the recent general election, he said. – The BBC

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The week Uncut

18/07/2010, 07:06:04 PM

Are we nearly there yet? The road trip to party conference in Manchester rolls on and the kids have started to get a bit tetchy in the back. 

This week Ed M made some newfriends, Ed B kept his aim firmly on Gove, Andy went after Lansley, David came out as anti-zombie, Diane picked on the boys (again). And Peter managed to upset just about everyone else.

In case you missed them, here are half a dozen of Uncut’s best read pieces of the last seven days:

Dan Hodges defends the man we love to blame

Guest editor John McTernan stirs it up

Sadiq Khan rebutts John Woodcock’s critique of Ed Miliband’s labour market views

Kevin Meagher predicts tears for the Yes campaign

Sunny Hundal says we should play to win

Tory sub editors make £200 million vanish without a trace… almost

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Sunday News Review

18/07/2010, 07:56:14 AM

Have you seen this man?

Where’s Gordon?

Some ex-prime ministers take years to get over being ejected; some never come to terms with the withdrawal of power. I don’t blame him for holing up in Kirkaldy and trying to bury his anguish by sitting at his keyboard thumping out a tome on the financial crisis. But I do criticise his colleagues for continuing to flinch from confronting the truth about him. – Rawnsley on Brown, The Guardian.

Since Labour left office their ­successors have finally been able to go through the books. And they make for uncomfortable reading. Of course it is difficult to fathom the labyrinthine bureaucracy that under-pins the NHS. But it would be hard to imagine any private business accepting without question a supplier increasing the price of a product by almost 1,000 per cent over two years. –Daily Mail.

Leadership news

The widow of John Smith, the former Labour leader who died of a heart attack in 1994, has thrown her backing behind Ed Miliband in the party’s leadership battle. Baroness Elizabeth Smith said she was sure that her husband would have done the same thing if he had been alive. “I am backing Ed Miliband because I identify with Ed’s values and principles, and I know that John would have done so too. Ed is also the candidate who I know has the ability to unify the party going forward,” she said. – The Guardian.

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Saturday News Review

17/07/2010, 09:51:43 AM
The great survivor 

Leadership candidates call on Mandelson to exit stage left

In interviews with The Times, the candidates – David Miliband, his brother Ed and Andy Burnham – suggested it is time for the peer to leave the political stage. David Miliband, former foreign secretary, said Lord Mandelson’s book The Third Man is “destructive and self-destructive” and should have come “after retirement, not before…”. Ed Miliband, the former climate change secretary, said the peer is “his own worst spin doctor” and had “offended just about everyone”. He said: “I think this is sad and damaging to Peter, not just to the Labour Party”, adding: “It’s time for a new generation.” Mr Burnham, who was health secretary in the last Labour government, said: “Peter loves the spotlight but it’s time to leave the stage.” – Press Association.

Mr Campbell, victim of a coded kicking in the book, had counterstruck this very day, in this very newspaper, by calling Mandelson a liar, or manager, over an arcane point regarding the Lib-Lab coalition talks he attended. But then he’s one of so many, Mr Blair in the vanguard, to have put the boot in. Having so little experience of internecine strife, this must all be terribly painful for you. “It’s not the end of my world,” says the Gloria Gaynor of British politics laconically, as his taxi draws to its halt. “I will survive.” – The Telegraph.

Balls acknowledged that both men in their different ways are in fact tribal Labour and powerfully described a “commonality” between the two. “Putting that big issue aside, Peter was Labour and I was Labour, we wanted the government to succeed, we wanted to win the election, Peter and I were always the people who, at key moments, were willing to go out and defend the government. I was never part of any plotting and I don’t think anyone suggests Peter particularly was. We were both, as we saw it, trying to do the right thing and doing the right thing meant coming together. We were more effective than we would have been opposing each other; just not effective enough sadly.” – The New Statesman.

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We campaign in poetry, said Mario Cuomo, here’s Gordon Watson’s take on the Coalition Budget

16/07/2010, 05:23:52 PM

Where on earth’s Horatius …….?
 
[After Horatius: A Lay made about the Year of the City CCCLX’.]
 
Dave Cameron and George Osborne,
  By Bullingdon they swore,
The cost of Public Services
  Should blight the rich no more.
By Bullingdon, George swore it,
  And named his Budget day,
And sent his minions scurrying forth
East and west and south and north,
  To make the poor man pay.
 
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