by Atul Hatwal
Remember the general election, when most reports on voting intention turned out to be total tosh?
Well, here we go again.
The general election hopelessly wrong-footed most commentators for two reasons: dodgy polls and shouty lefty Twittervists.
The polls created an illusion that Ed Miliband and Labour were a nose in front. Labour’s voluble activist base on Twitter then leapt on every iffy poll and each tweet describing yet another great session on the #Labourdoorstep to amplify and broadcast the narrative that Ed Miliband was about to become prime minister.
Understandably, most journalists looked on and followed the crowd. The pollsters and the Twittervists seemed to be saying the same thing.
A self-reinforcing spiral of delusion took hold that was only broken when the public’s actual votes shattered the Westminster’s conventional wisdom on the evening of May 7th.
Now, it’s happening again in the Labour leadership race.
YouGov have provided the poll and the Twittervists have been hard at work since news of it broke last night (though in truth, this process was already under way, with the equally misleading CLP nominations being used as the metric of choice by Corbyn’s online barmy army).
The problem, as at the general election, is that the polling is misleading.
In the case of the Labour leadership race, the capability of any polling company to accurately sample members is highly questionable.
For online polling, the problem is particularly acute.
Online polls, such as YouGov’s, are based on people opting in to take part in a panel and answer questions. The self-selecting aspect of this process is normally mitigated by the sheer size of the panel and the rigour that can be applied to make the samples statistically representative and significant.
But when polling comparatively small groups – like members of political parties – problems inevitably emerge.
Because there are a limited number of Labour party members in the population – roughly 0.4% – it’s difficult to ensure there are enough participants in the panel, let alone that they are representative of the group being polled. In fact, it’s not clear how a polling company would know the right demographic profile of Labour members to adjust its sample, even if it could, without Labour’s membership lists.
The unrepresentative nature of the sample is evident in the detail of the poll. The figures seem to suggest that almost two-thirds of members and supporters have joined since 2010, a third the election in May!
This is ridiculous.
Yes, there will have been churn, but two-thirds new in the past five years? One third new in a couple of months? A Labour staffer I spoke to this morning laughed out loud when presented with these figures.
It seems likely that the element of self-selection has led to a massive over-representation of fervent new recruits, eager to share their views.
The YouGov poll, in common with the previous emphasis in reports of CLP nominations, seems to have been skewed by representing activists’ views, rather than those of typical members.
In contrast to street-pounding, leaflet delivering, phone-banking stalwarts of activist endeavour, most members are passive, verging on the inert.
They don’t fall over themselves to give their views. For most, politics is pastime not a passion; the last election was a disappointment not a disaster.
Members are normal people and as such, they’re not that different from – god forbid – the legions of ex-Labour voters who opted for the Tories in May.
They are silent majority, similar to the silent majority of voters who regarded Ed Miliband as wholly unelectable and the Labour party as unable to manage the public purse.
And as at the election, it’s a silent majority that appears to have been largely missed in the polling.
These people are not going to vote for Jeremy Corbyn. He is going to finish fourth, just as everyone expected when he first squeaked into the contest.
The silent majority is also why Liz Kendall will surprise many people with her result – the concerns about electability that she is articulating, echo what the vast majority of typical Labour members think.
And it’s why Andy Burnham’s baffling welfare hokey cokey earlier this week, will have lost him votes – flip flopping is not leaderly and tacking to the left on welfare is neither in line with mainstream public opinion nor builds confidence in Labour’s electability.
The real unwritten story of this leadership election is the widening gulf between the majority of passive party members and activists.
This is a division that exists in all parties, but not since the early 1980s has the chasm been so great within Labour. Large swathes of Labour’s activists are much closer to the Greens than the views of the ordinary members, or indeed, the leadership.
The depth off this divide will be evident when the results are announced on September 12th and yet another media inquest begins on how the polls and social media got it all so wrong. Again.
Atul Hatwal is editor of Uncut
Tags: Andy Burnham, Atul Hatwal, Jeremy Corbyn, Labour leadership election, Liz Kendall, polls, Twitter, YouGov, Yvette Cooper
Most Labour members have got to the point of sheer desperation and… ‘Oh what the hell! Don’t trust the others; lets give JC, who looks and sounds a decent chap a chance’
So Atul will be proved, wrong again.
Firstly Atul, by saying that Corbyn will finish fourth you have probably just destroyed your own credibility. Just as if Burnham wins after second preferences he will forever be taunted in PMQs about mid-Staffs, you will forever be taunted on these pages as the man who said Corbyn will be fourth no matter what it is you are writing about.
Here in Wales party members are well known to each other – often mixed within families. In this seat at least, the MP favours Burnham, virtually every member is going for Corbyn. Virtually every union member you ask? Corbyn.
They don’t want any Blair-type leaders anymore. The thing with Corbyn is you know exactly where he stands on a whole range of issues. Just out of curiosity ask people randomly – you’ll find they know where he stands on loads of stuff, but absolutely nothing about where the others stand.
I hope you’re right on this Atul. I honestly don’t know whether the “other 3” can win but I know with absolute certainty that Corbyn can’t & won’t.
It is worth remembering that the polls were predicting that the Tories would be the biggest party and Labour would be wiped out in Scotland. They were wrong about there being a hung parliament, so the latest poll might be wrong about Corbyn’s support. What is clear, however, from the nominations is that Corbyn is doing a lot better than Abbott in 2010. Atul does not seem to realise that many moderate Labour supporters were alienated by New Labour and some of them will be voting first for Corbyn. In my view, the silent majority of Blairites is a figment of Atul’s imagination.
You’ve lost the plot. New £3 supporters are turning 2/3 for Corbyn. They will all vote. The unions are recruiting like mad. Your like some deluded Roman emporer with the barbarians at the gate.
Where’s this assertion that Labour is out of step with the public on welfare cuts come from? The most recent poll I can find says that more people oppose them than support them.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/27/public-split-camerons-welfare-cuts/
I believe we the labour members need to go back to the original rote where the labour party was started from, I believe we have moved from our original rotes
Jeremy will be able to bring us back therefore we should support him
Sincerely hope you’re right, Atul.
But I’m fairly certain you’re not.
There are too many indicators (YouGov, private polling, CLPs, social media, anecdote) all pointing to Corbyn doing very well indeed. There’s not a lot pointing in any other direction. God help us but I think Corbyn will actually win.
The establishment is going crazy at the thought of a “left winger” being in charge of the opposition, someone who will dare bring up issues such as poverty and inequality on the national TV networks. The panic has started and the attack dogs are unleashed, including the war criminal. Lets not forget its only 24% of the population running this country right now, Corbyn has a chance. Only 24% Tory voters, just a quarter.
On the question of membership churn Atul isnt the only one making this mistake. Membership in the Yougov poll means members of the Labour Electorate which includes about 10,000 £3 joiners & about 50,000 Trades Unionists. Add to those the 40,000 actual members who have joined since & you have about a third of the total Labour electorate, in line with the Yougov figures.
In fact, this is the third poll putting Corbyn ahead, remember the private polls done for 2 of the other 3 candidates. The CLP nominations only add to the evidence.
I declare an interest as a Libdemtroll.
Listened to the LBC debate – courtesy of the magic of digital radio.
Corbyn was streets ahead of the others. He was the only one that sounded genuine and honest. The other three came across as shifty, self-centred and cowardly non-committal.
And you are still left in a position that you know what Corbyn stands for but you have no idea what the other three do.
I’m actually thinking now that Corbyn isn’t just going to win the first round then lose on second preference, he’s actually going to win the thing outright and possibly in round 1.
Moderator where are my comments? was I censored because I used the words war criminal?
Apologies, my comment now appears. It could be my browser. I withdraw my accusations.
Silly to suggest that Corbyn will come 4th. You’re right to be sceptical of the polling, but for it to be out by such a huge margin would be extremely unlikely.
However, Corbyn would be an unmitigated disaster for Labour. The hateful leftie twitter-mob will go into overdrive with him as a leader, alienating more and more ordinary voters. But remember, the kind of people who would vote for JC *don’t want power*. It would shatter their self-righteous image, forcing them to accept that their view of the world is completely barking mad as the policies of the hateful far left, one by one, are shown for what they are. As such, they’ll do anything/everything to drive the party into the wilderness before the next election so they can spend another five years doing what they really want: whinging about the ‘evil tories’. I can’t wait!
This arch-Propagandist for New Labour, Tory Blair and all that’s wrong with Britain is so stuck up his own arse he fails to see the wood for the trees, never mind the reality.
First contention, the Polls got it wrong: This is utter poppycock to say the least, the only thing the Poll got wrong was the wrong Government given only 24% of all eligible voters actually voted for the Tories, that’s right, 76% hate the fuckers and still we have a Tory government – time to abandon support for First Past The Post me thinks.
For the other nonsense this nonentity espouses, got tell your Red Tory friends to actually join the Conservative Party, which is where they belong – New Labour is dead, people see through Blair as the war crazed greedy fucker that he and his deplorable wife are – YES GREEDY FUCKERS, coining it at ours, the taxpayers expense – how sick is that.
We want our Peoples Party back, we want a genuine Opposition, not a Tory lapdog doing Tory tricks as the majority in this nation get arse-fucked royally by the Tory scum.
With this is mind, all adult members of my family, all over 40 years of age have now joined Labour as party supporters – five of us – and each will cast a vote for Mr. Corbyn – so far from the Poll being wrong, its probably right.
Now please get back into your pram, get someone to push you off a cliff and go propagandise somewhere else!
It’s Old Labour that is dead, it has been 31 years since it won a General Election and 39 since it had a majority of more than 3!!
Hopefully the polls are wrong and Labour will elect the one viable candidate in Liz Kendall, or face another 2 decades in the wilderness.
I think Christopher D. Rogers above sums up the Corbyn supporters in one brilliant post.
He rants about the Conservatives 24% of the vote , somehow ignoring Labour got less.
Tells anyone who disagrees with him to leave the Party.
Swears at the Tories.
And ends up with personal remarks.
As for claiming he is an “adult”, his words suggest otherwise.
It’s too late, even if Corbyn comes dead last and is tarred and feathered as part of the winner’s celebrations. By slipping in the comedy candidate, and then getting in a panic when he does well and falling out about it, Labour comes over more like a student debating team than a potential partyof Government. Could you imagine the Tories engineering Bill Cash onto a list with the real contenders to “widen the debate”? It’s beyind hilarious, it’s just sad. His presence has forced the other candidates (with the honourable exception of Kendal) to tack left away from where the electorate clearly are; and it has shown to floating voters that the Reds are alive and well under Labour’s bed. The, probably irreconcilable, split between what Labour wish to put in the shop window to achieve power and the views of large parts of the activist base is there for all to see – and if that wasn’t enough Toxic Tony, electorally successful but morally lower than a snake’s belly button, rises from the grave to stick his oar in. If you’d have asked Tory central office to script it they couldn’t have betterd this amateurish car crash. Do you laugh or cry? One thing is certain, the general population really don’t pay that much attention to politics, but general impressions stick. The impression of Labour as a clown car, careering round with no driver while bits fall off can only be reinforced.
bizarrely both the tories and the left want Corbyn.
now given just how wrong we got the GE and how right they got it … might this be a moment to consider that we are holding a loaded gun pointed between our eyes shouting one false move and the labour party gets it … this isnt blazing saddles and its a pretty poor bluff because the audience is just going to laugh itself sick if Jezzer is voted in. he’s already talking about increasing the take take by 20% and increasing the public sector. the electorate said it didnt want more tax/more benefit … once more we demand they take it on … and all those people we just insulted in the spasm of grief after the GE walk away just like scotland did from our empty lies.
20+ years in the wilderness rather than just 5 or 10.
welcome to opposition … permanently.
Everyone is entitled to an opinion. But really, who knows. What did it for me was the welfare bill amendment vote. Jeremy is the only one I find credible.
I hope you are right Atul! Labour has litteraly no chance of winning the next election unless it moves to the centre.
Seems that a part of Labour supporters prefer to shout from the sides than actually be in power and make real change!
I think the one factor not taken into account is the Undecideds. Generally, JC supporters tend to know they are JC supporters and are enthusiastic about it; on the other hand, there’s an enormous cohort of moderates (perhaps more than half of members) who can’t decide between YC, AB and LK. Of these, there is a decent cohort who are “I don’t care who it is as long as it isn’t JC”. JC is the “marmite” candidate which is why he’ll struggle on 2nd preferences.
@christopher d Rodgers
Clearly maths isn’t your strong point and your grasp of the real world seems tenuous at best.
However, from a personal perspective it has confirmed to me that I did the right thing in voting Tory, as politics dominated by dim loony left shouty fuckwits like you was everything I wanted to avoid.
Probably best if you pop back to Labour List and give them the benefit of your obvious qualities.
Blair needs to but out. A ‘lurch to the Left’ is the only thing that can save Labour. Unless you DO move to the Left I and millions more will not vote for you. Someone like Jeremy Corbyn is what the party needs. It is precisley because you are no longer seen as a proper Left-wing Socialist party that you lost the last election. We don’t want Tory Lite or Blue Labour, we want a far Left Commie in charge! Someone who wil stand up and fight our enemy the Tory Scum. Someone who will oppose Welfare reform and the dismantling of our State. BUT OUT BLAIR.
Yes, YouGov did call the GE wrong but they were only 3% out on the Labour share. If the recent Labour poll is as wrong Corbyn is still on 40%. For Corbyn to come fourth his campaign would have to implode over the coming weeks (possible); no way is he fourth at the moment.
and the YouGov poll wouldn’t have even included all the Tory members masquerading as Labour members by paying £3.
he will win in the first round and labour can kiss good bye to 2025 as well as 2020 but don’t worry. you will be alright. you will be alright.
@Medasafish,
I must say your actual analytical skills resemble those of the author of this crud, and obviously its too much to miss the stinking white elephant in the room when talking about the percentages of posts cast by the electorate for most of the legacy parties – you learn zero lessons from the Scottish Referendum and the SNP wiping the floor with all Westminster legacy parties regardless of colour.
But let us point out the obvious first, which you seen unable to comprehend, a full one third of the UK electorate did not vote, contrast this to Scotland’s Referendum and the May 7 turnout – strange is it not?
Further, as someone who is now half a century old I remembers well Thatcher and the unnecessary destruction she wrought on our land, not to mention the greed she unleashed, a greed that resulted in the GFC of 2008.
Far from being the left-winger you accuse me of being, when i joined Labour in the early 80’s I was a Healeyite and opposed to Tony Benn – I’m Pro-nuclear, as was Bevan and Bevin and follow a Bismarckian/Gaullist line as foreign affairs go – please go and read it up to understand what that’s all about.
Now, i have Principles, I have a moral philosophy and one upholds those, i do not abandon them, I do not abandon the working class from which i originated, despite being a businessman who travels the world – no sir, I expect Labour to be a Party of protest, a Party of Progression a Party of equality, a Party of Truth and Honest and none of that I see imparted from any of the contenders, with the exception of Corbyn.
Please look up PFI, please look up house flipping on taxpayers expense, please go and check the expenses claims of those you say represent Labour – they do not represent Labour, they are neoliberal CADS SIR, with one exception, Mr. Corbyn.
If the truth is too much to stomach or you don’t like a party with balls, then please leave and join the Lib Dems or Tories, but I want zero of Tory lite and zero of the Tories and my main reason for this is that far from being good for small business, these cretins represent “Big Business” and the worst form of capitalism one can imagine, namely Socialist bailouts for the mega rich in bad times and full privatisation of profits in good times, at the same time the senior managers are robbing their own businesses, shareholders and pensioners who pensions are invested in these firms, blind.
Now, if you desire to talk about the Centre ground all three legacy parties are to the right of that centre, to say otherwise means your stark raving mad and another propagandist like the author himself.
Ha ha ha
Christopher D Rogers has got to be the epitome of the screeching,howling losing Labour left. How dumb is he? 76% hate the Tories ! Really? So using his own deluded logic even more people hate Labour. Oh and in true ultra leftie style he got the numbers wrong too. Don’t worry though all us ijiots will be proved wrong because his family all joined Labour to vote JC. Jeez what a dumbass.
One BIG reason that Labour lost is this type of screeching from the ultra left. They do nothing but bang on about benefits, so called poverty and the laughably invented meaningless “austerity” from a government who have just spent even MORE money, borrowed MORE money and RAISED taxes again. Most ordinary people are fairly sensible, can see whats actually going on and vote accordingly.
Please please please let JC win, we can consign Labour to the dustbin of history and just maybe we will get a centre left party that recognises the importance of business who make money pays their tax creates jobs and makes the economy work so that those least well off can be helped by the rest.
There is a lot of fantasising going on in the Labour Right. This is not 1983, 1997 or 2010. This is a different world from the one before the 2015 election. Osborne is moving the goal-posts in a direction that could cost him his life. None of the non-Corbyns have a clue about how to deal with this new world. I believe Jeremy has the mental agility to confront a future where, by 2030, half the jobs will have been automated away &, unlike past techno-revolutions, will not be replaced. The other candidates are living in the past. I am 72 & ran a high-tech business, which is more than the candidates & most fellow-lefties did.
@Robert:
The establishment obviously censored your comment because it was going crazy at your attack on you-know-who. It only lifted its gag in far of mass protest when you exposed what was going on. Who’s actually behind these browsers, eh?
@Christoper D. Rogers:
Right on, comrade! Labour government is the cause of all that’s wrong with Britain! Anyone who doesn’t agree is a Red Tory, and should obviously be advised by Labour supporters to join the Conservative Party. It all makes perfect sense.
I’m pretty relaxed about JC winning the ballot, Why, because he’s promised us that he will be stepping down in 2018 when he’s done the job of putting the Party right. And I believe him. He is not going to be PM, and has had no ambition to be PM.
@ Christopher D. Rogers
You go on about those who did not vote. And then are rude about my use of statistics.
I will forgo the personal remarks you pepper your lebgthy diatribes with and quote you some facts:
At the 2015 GE, “ All 20 of the seats in Britain with the lowest turnout in the general election were won by Labour.
It is a reminder of how apathy and disillusionment permeate many of the party’s heartlands. Even in Doncaster North, Ed Miliband was re-elected on a turnout of just 55.7 per cent: here, the number of Labour voters has collapsed from 34,135 in 1992 to 20,708 today”
http://tinyurl.com/mllwfvw
So you could get 100% turnout in those 20 seats and it would make NO change to the number of seats Labour hold.
So your analysis is fatally flawed. Because you make assumptions not bourne out by detailed analysis…As the people who don’t turn out TEND to be Labour supporters in Labour strongholds where a red rosetted donkeys could win a seat.. And used to in Scotland until the Scots woke up.
So all your wonderful analysis is founded on a lie…
See : it’s possible to disagree without swearing. You should try it.
Oh my word, that’s the tone I remember from the 70s and 80s, what a fantastic nostalgic read that was. Shabash Christopher D. Rogers, a wonderful and note-perfect pastiche. I really do hope your wishes are fulfilled and that your chosen guy is elected – and that the pathetic Red Tories get out of Labour and join the Conservatives as you require.
…but then I voted Conservative last time and am pretty OK with what they’re doing now.
You lost. People didn’t want even the very mildly Leftist narrative you had going on in May, I very much doubt they’ll want something harder in the coming years. That’ll suit you and the extreme Left just fine, of course, you can keep baying from the sidelines and congratulating yourselves on your ideological purity while the grown ups get on with proper politics. Perhaps the new SDP when it forms can be the Opposition, even a good government like the one we have needs an Opposition to keep it honest and Labour’s sure as hell not looking like a worthwhile candidate for the role.
I hop you Right in case you not and Liz Kendall wins but i dot think Jeremy Corbyn will come forth he is Doing Wall if he not First he will be 2ad or 3ad my hop is Labour Choice Liz Kendall for Ledare and Tom Watson for dupty
Swat,Ed Miliand was aware by private polling that he was going to lose in 2015, a year before hand after the 2014 EU elections when Ukip won,and Labour didn’t do as well as could have outside London, Andrew Mckinaly hardly a new Labour man, wrote a article saying resign ,he ignored it
Michael foot was told By Gerald Kaufman, that he was heading labour too disaster asked him to resign he didn’t and A young Supporter of tony Benn, who was part of Banns campaign team, said had Benn Won deputy in 1981 he would have ousted Foot in 1982 and labour would have done worse in 83 ,than foot had, what makes you think that Had Corbyn becomes leader that if labour are behind in the polls,in a couple of years it’ll be a clue for Him to resign, If corbyn becomes leader Labour win get 15 of the vote in 2020
I just can’t get any information about Liz Kendall regarding any policies at all. Where does she stand on railways? on tuition fees? on welfare cuts? She doesn’t seem to have any policies at all so I just can’t make any judgement about her. I am voting for Corbyn but not because he is on the left, just because he has policies and I agree with some of them.
I am starting to think that Corbyn will win outright with a majority in the 1st round. The only way to stop him in the weeks left would be if large numbers of Burham & Cooper supporters switched to Kendall, polarising the contest. Labour has to decide if it wants to be a social-democratic Party or a British Syriza; Cooper & Burnham are just obscuring the real choice.
The bookies don’t often get it wrong and they have Corbyn to win. The chances of his finishing last are just about zero. Let’s be realistic about this.
In the remaining weeks let’s have a debate about policy and economics. Austerity economics needn’t be a right-wing position if it is clearly shown to be incorrect. So let’s look at the evidence from around the world and make that decision. Keynes was Liberal not a Socialist.
The Labour right are backing a loser if they choose Friedman or Hayek over Keynes.
Nonsense eh?
Will you eat one of Paddy Ashdown’s hats if it turns out to be right?
corbyn 6/4 fav with burn ham, cooper 7/2 kendall 100/1
Christopher D Rogers
The ‘unelectable’ narrative of the Blairites rests on a selective use of statistics as Bernard Shaw said, like a drunk man uses lampposts: for support, not enlightenment.
Other numbers are in a post on Bella Caledonia. Michael Foot was winning till the Argentine War started; the Left is far from unelectable in Scotland, and crucially, Blair governments and Labour since have garnered votes from a smaller proportion of the electorate each time. What has happened is that the disengagement of many – slightly faster on the labour side – has determined the results.
Conservative’s did not win in 2015 or 2010. They just lost less badly.
In Scotland, the SNP did nothing to deserve their success. They didn’t need to. When Jim Murphy was appointed branch manager, I asked nationalists of my acquaintance whether the SNP now had the SLAB leader it wanted, the seventh since devolution, each one less successful than the last. I didn’t get many clear answers, but none of them was ‘No’.
The Liberals went into coalition sacrificing their anti-Tory Highland support with the insouciance of WWI generals, trashing decades of hard work and incremental growth in localism. Hitherto, only one party in any nation of the UK had ever got a majority of the popular vote, the Conservatives in Scotland. Now they get less than the 17.1% rebranded DDR communists in the first elections in the reunited Germany.
Tony Blair’s analysis is that two parties significantly improved their position in the election: – UKIP and SNP. (Actually, from a low base, so did the Greens in England but that doesn’t fit with his argument). Both these parties are Nationalist. Nationalism is bad (risking Godwin’s law here) we must ‘fight’ it.
These two very different parties (and the Greens) are fronted by people who come across as WYSIWYG. That’s why they did well.
As Bob Monkhouse and Hughie Green used to say “If you can fake sincerity, you’ve got it made”
Jeremy Corbyn may well not be selected, and if selected may be removed, but if leads Labour at the next election will be elected with a surprising majority to lead a Labour government.
The Blairite analysis is wrong. As Sherlock Holmes often explained,
“How often have I told you, Watson,” he said, “that one must take into account all the factors relevant to a particular situation before making an assessment”
Interesting analysis – of course, Labour will be finished if Corbyn is not elected. His platform on moderate and sensible equality measures equivalent to what Nordic countries have, will be popular, and electable, if people can screw their heads out of the establishment for a minute to breathe the air and smell the coffee.
Hey Nostradamus, how did the result go?
Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Bit awkward really.
Oh dear this is rather embarrassing.
Just saw this bloke on The Daily Politics and thought who the hell… Then I read this and couldn’t stop laughing about how wrong he gets things
Ha ha ha ha ha, you told us!