Uncut predictions for 2017 (and beyond): George Osborne is the next Prime Minister

In the event of train wreck Brexit, or something near to it, the economic costs of Brexit are likely, unfortunately, to hit back pockets. This would have far more powerful political consequences than any slogan. But Osborne has put forward one of the best slogans since 23 June.

“Brexit won a majority. Hard Brexit did not.”

This slogan, in itself, does not change reality – but it positions Osborne to benefit when reality changes. The steeper the costs of Brexit, the sharper the political price paid by Theresa May, and the more dramatically political reality will shift.

As Nigel Farage cedes notions of a Brexit betrayal, blaming immigrants and foreigners for the costs of the unravelling that he so vehemently pushed for, it is hard, sadly, to rule out British politics taking an even sharper turn to the right. As much as this would benefit UKIP, PM Farage remains implausible.

As much as President Trump was also not so long ago unthinkable, a perhaps more likely scenario is a PM Osborne. He will be untarnished by any Brexit costs experienced under May. His opposition to hard Brexit would allow him to personify a change of direction, a return to the management deemed competent enough only 18 months ago, to deliver the Conservatives their first majority in nearly a quarter of a century, and more smoothly and credibly reach compromise positions with EU partners.

Misjudged party management drove David Cameron to a referendum. Its loss sparked a revolution in his party, requiring that a quiet remainder, May, can only wear its crown as an ardent Brexiter. If the costs of Brexit are large enough, they may power a counter revolution, and resurrect Osborne.

This series of events would have dramatic consequences for the UK and the EU but to a significant extent, this revolution was about the internal dynamics of the Conservative Party. Any counter revolution would be too.

A natural party of government with somewhat bipolar tendencies. It is their country. We just live in it. Till we can offer a better party to govern it. It shouldn’t be that hard, should it?

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14 Responses to “Uncut predictions for 2017 (and beyond): George Osborne is the next Prime Minister”

  1. John P Reid says:

    If you really think Geoge Osbourne view is best, it’s either because you think labour can’t even win again, or even if Corbyn was ousted there’s ,not Wooly minded liberal, you could see replacing him, from your wing of the party
    And to answer Osborne quote

    The reason hard Brexit didn’t win the vote was because we weren’t asked that, if you define hard Brexit as out the single market, Yes we’d have won that too

  2. John P Reid says:

    Apart from the rubbish in this article would actually ,make sympathy for Farage, I would sue you for printing this ,if I was him,

  3. John P Reid says:

    The idea that if Goeorge Osborne become PM, was still against Brexit, and then had a election,it would be the only way , the Tories could win, by beung ine nation ones, is silly, many of the ex labour remain people like Dan hodges,have expressed , satisfaction with Theresa May, over Jeremy

  4. Leslie48 says:

    Indeed we are but watchers on the sidelines ( not with standing Starmer’s best efforts) as the popular Conservatives are now both the ruling party and Opposition. Our polling and Corbyn ratings are shockingly at early 1980s levels and indeed our best people and orators have melted away;would that the defenders of our EU, internationalism and such like could come out the shadows and blast this economic self harm not hide behind Corbynite ambiguity, retreat and collusion with Brexit ideology. At least or voters should know what ‘Brexit means Brexit’ means to their futures and family.

  5. Malc says:

    Tory-lite policies failed in 2010 and 2015. Ed Balls even lost his seat! This is no time to return to the bad old ways of New Labour.

  6. paul barker says:

    For now Labour exists to keep The Tories in power, if you dont want to offer an Alternative to Brexit that your business but get out of the way of people who do.

  7. John. p Reid says:

    Tory lite policies in 2010 and 2015(lol)
    Even if this was true we still did better in those elections that when we had hard left manifestos like 1983(27.2% Tory MJority of 144) and it wasn’t just the SDP or the Falklands, as if the SDP didn’t exist, those people would just have voted liberal, who as a party were around before labour were ,so had a right to stand

  8. Forlornehope says:

    Oh ye of little faith: Jeremy is going to be the next PM and anyone who says differently is a Tory.

  9. madasafish says:

    “Till we can offer a better party to govern it. It shouldn’t be that hard, should it?”

    Any Party which votes for Corbyn twice – and has MPs stupid # enough to allow him to stand in the original ballot for Leader – really has no hope. Full of dumb useless MPs and a membership who clearly hold Venezuela as a model to aspire to.

    You really need a near death experience to force you to rebuild. Corbyn is going to give you that.

    # Margaret Beckett’s words – not mine..

  10. John P Reid says:

    Madasafish, Beckett had rhand David Cameron idea on the referndum,only allow a vote if you think your going to get the result you want, Beckett and Cameron thought there would be another result,

  11. Tafia says:

    Madasafish – a truly relevant democratic party is not dictated to by it’s MPs – it is dictated to by it’s membership. I’m no Corbyn fan, but on that principle he and momentum are correct.

  12. Harris says:

    The Mps represent the voters, the people, rather than being dictated to by party members.

  13. Tafia says:

    And Harris, who selects the MPs as candidates. The party members.

  14. john P Reid says:

    Actually Michael gove may yet b PM after the scoop of the trump interview, and as the Spectator said Gove is the greatest leer the labour party ,never had, then if he was leader, labour ought to be really worries

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