by Jonathan Todd

Gordon Brown, then chancellor, was travelling on an RAF flight when he found out that Ed Miliband had been selected as Labour’s candidate in Doncaster, according to Mehdi Hasan and James Macintyre’s biography of Jeremy Corbyn’s predecessor as Labour leader.

“Brown was seen in a rare moment of real joy, punching the air as if his local football team had just won the FA Cup, and punching it so hard that his hand hit the luggage compartment above his head with a crunch.”

Brown was also pleased when Ian Austin and John Woodcock, like Miliband ex Brown aides, were selected as Labour candidates. Now, after the Tories have reversed the public spending that Brown increased, deepened the poverty that Brown tackled, and sought a Brexit that Brown resisted, Austin and Woodcock advise voting Tory.

After all that the Tories have done, to return them to Downing Street would not just rub salt in the wounds, it would invite their deepening.

Nothing about Boris Johnson’s campaign launch made sense. We were meant to believe that it was in a crowded hall in Birmingham; it was in a half-full one in Solihull. He insists he wants to get Brexit “done”; he will have it drag on, pulling the UK apart, country-by-country, business-by-business, family-by-family. He wants to unleash the UK’s potential; that will be forestalled by the monstrous distraction that he wants to get “done”.

Of course, it is not reverence for Johnson that drives Austin and Woodcock but deep suspicion of Corbyn. Phil Collins, writing speeches for Tony Blair when Brown was punching luggage compartments, last week categorised Labour MPs in The Times based upon their feelings towards Corbyn.

“The first group, those who are favourable to, loyal to or reconciled to Mr Corbyn, tell no untruths when they advocate a Labour government. The second group are those, and I salute them all, who have decided they would rather quit than perjure themselves in an election campaign. Then there is the third group, the stay-and-fighters.”

The second group subdivides. There are: those making careers removed from party politics (e.g. Michael Dugher, another ex-Brown adviser, at UK Music); those contesting the election as independents (e.g. Chris Leslie, once a Brownite MP); those fighting it as Liberal Democrats (e.g. Luciana Berger and Chuka Umunna, first elected as MPs when Brown was leader); and those advocating voting Tory (Gisela Stuart, albeit she stood down in 2017, might be added to Austin and Woodcock) and maybe even the Brexit Party (has anyone checked on Kate Hoey?).

These are very different choices, but Austin was likely right when he said during his Today interview last week that either Boris Johnson or Corbyn will be prime minister after 12 December.

While Berger and Umunna insist Jo Swinson can be, this remains implausible. The best that their party can hope is to have a decisive influence over which of Labour and Tories forms a government.

It appears that the Liberal Democrat price for backing Labour will be the replacement of Corbyn as leader. This will pose a dilemma for the stay-and-fighters (who include Ed Miliband and another ex-Brown staffer Jonathan Ashworth): remain loyal to Corbyn or, incurring the wrath of members, find a way to indicate that the Liberal Democrat price is worth paying.

But it might be that, rather than risk being blamed for letting Johnson back in to Downing Street, the Liberal Democrats blink: supporting PM Corbyn for six months, simply to allow him to deliver on his Brexit referendum and somehow constrain the rest of Corbyn’s agenda. In which case, other dilemmas would emerge for the stay-and-fighters: back Remain or Corbyn’s Brexit; accept the Liberal Democrat constrains on Corbyn or resist them.

After this referendum, the Liberal Democrats would withdraw their support from PM Corbyn, possibly tipping the UK in to another general election and another dilemma for the stay-and-fighters: allow Corbyn to fight this election or not.

Alternatively, the Tories win a majority on 12 December (in which case, the stay-and-fighters must seek Corbyn’s resignation) or Labour do (when it would be useful to have as many stay-and-fighters as possible as ministers). Looking at the polls, the former appears more likely.

Nonetheless, the road to national renewal runs through averting Brexit and the road to this, pace the “Remain alliance”, runs through Labour. 50 MPs is probably the limit of Liberal Democrat ambition, meaning that Labour’s referendum is the only road to ending Brexit.

This referendum is probably where we end up if Tory victory can be prevented – which is what will happen if the SNP take the Scottish Tory seats, the Liberal Democrats take Tory seats in the south west, and the “red wall” holds in the north, the Midlands and Wales.

After the pain of austerity and the mendacity of Johnson, the reasons for repelling the Tories are just as strong in these Labour citadels as in Brown’s day. Equally, Brown’s boys articulate powerful concerns about what Labour has become. Austin sees the party as “poisoned by extremism and racism”, while Woodcock sees Corbyn as being so dangerous that he has to be prevented from “getting his hands on the levers of national security and defence”.

While we do not know what Brown’s most valued counsel, Ed Balls, thinks, his wife, Yvette Cooper, is among the stay-and-fighters. On the scenarios suggested here, they have much to fight for. The dismal experience of Change UK, improbability of PM Swinson and disaster of PM Johnson means that winning these battles remains the quickest – if fraught and uncertain – way to a better tomorrow.

Jonathan Todd is Deputy Editor of Labour Uncut

Tags: Ed Balls, Ed Miliband, general election 2019, gordon brown, ian austin, John Woodcock, Jonathan Todd, Yvette Cooper

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