Remember: We don’t always know how it ends!

by Tim Carter

Life is very different for everyone at the moment and it is easy to look back on the 2016 referendum or the 2019 UK general election and jump into tribalism or blame. Politics, wherever you looked seemed to be more about blame than anything else.

But then came 2020 and the Covid-19 pandemic, to lockdown or not to lockdown, and other decisions that no one was thinking about in December replaced the more mundane political decisions usually facing world leaders. A deadly virus sweeping the world, something more likely to be seen in a Hollywood blockbuster than in real life, demanded more from political leaders than the promises made in manifestos.

The public, looking for leadership and guidance, trusted and followed advice and the rules. Different countries unsurprisingly, took different approaches, some politicians broke away from tribal politics and for a moment we were “all in this together”

Heartbreak and tragedy played out daily on our TV screens, in our newspapers and online. In the UK on Thursday nights at 8pm we clapped, cheered and banged saucepans for those on the frontline caring for our loved ones, those not ‘shielding’ supported neighbours who were, by shopping and collection prescriptions, and talk was of how a post Covid-19 society would be better than what went before.

Cooperation and looking for solutions that worked were the political agenda, low skilled was rightly replaced by low paid and those who worked to keep us safe were now seen in a very different light by many. There was a very small crack where the light appeared to be shining through but the death toll kept rising and the very real suffering continued but we continued to obey and be guided by our leaders. At the heart of all of that was trust. Trust that the truth was being told. Trust that we really were all in this together. Trust that we were following the science.

And then.

One car journey from London to the north of England became a huge UK news story, a car journey that if within the rules, was certainly not in the spirit of the rules as most understood them. Most if not all of the UK media and the public were united. The prime minister decided to stand by his man and with that, trust started to breakdown.

History will tell if that was a defining moment, but the mood of a nation had changed and as the horror of what was happening in care homes dripped out, the government appeared to be more concerned with saving the job of one man.

Where there was consensus there was now suspicion and anger.

No apologies just excuses and rewriting of the rules. The opposition parties started to probe more but answers came there none. Some Tory backbenchers spoke out but with an 80 seat majority nothing was going to change.

And of course, the news moves on and the pandemic remains. People are still suffering and dying. The lockdown is eased, and we are told this is the first step back to a post Covid-19 world.

The world we were promised would be better and different. But already the single-issue groups are gathering and shouting: cycling, universal basic income, electoral reform and other ‘pet subjects’ are pushed as the solution to a better society. Depending on your politics Johnson is either incompetent or doing a good job in difficult circumstances and Starmer is either ‘forensically’ brilliant, an opportunistic chancer or being too supportive.

And then comes the blame game and people return to beat up their traditional enemies be they experts, journalists, George Soros, Bill Gates or politicians we didn’t much care for anyway.

My fear is that this brave new world won’t be that much different from the old one, and those who have lost their lives will become statistics or names on a spreadsheet and if that happens we should all hang our heads in shame.

Perhaps we need to hear someone say “I don’t know” or “We can’t promise because we are still learning”

It is true that we don’t always know how it ends!

Tim Carter is a freelance communications advisor and is currently staring at herons


Tags: , , , ,


24 Responses to “Remember: We don’t always know how it ends!”

  1. Alf says:

    In a very uncertain world, the one thing you can count on is that Starmer’s New New Labour will be “tougher on welfare than the Tories”. Reynolds’ Tory-lite speech today was a real stinker.

  2. John P Reid says:

    Alf did you hear a different Reynolds speech to the rest of us

  3. George Kendall says:

    I’m with you, Tim. When it’s clear that the experts are still learning, the only people I trust are those who admit “I don’t know.”

    Sad to say, on social media and in the traditional media, that means I trust very few people.

  4. anosrep says:

    What is the point of this article? (Apart from signalling that you can quote The West Wing.)

  5. Anne says:

    Possibly the Cummings debacle was the point where the general public did cotton on to what a second rate lot this present government really are. Johnson is also being found out – big stile – at PMQs – when a time we really need intelligent, able politicians – we find we have a third rate government in office. We hear that trade talks with the EU are not going well with the possibility of no deal – compounding the economic downturn caused by Covoid. I read recently that our farmers are becoming concerned about some of the proposed trade deals that affects them in unfavourable ways is causing concern. America has certainly lost its way in the world. Underlying issues regarding race and inequalities have been compounded by the inadequate leadership of Trump. He has not worked to unite America but has compounded the problems. No, we often can’t predict how things will end, but we can mitigate against certain things happening by engaging the better team to achieve a better outcome.

  6. Touchstone says:

    This site’s resident pollster hasn’t been along for a while to tell us how the Tories are creaming Labour, and what a working-class hero Alexander Boris de Piffle Johnson (Eton, Balliol) is. Let me save him the trouble:

    Opinium / Observer (4-5 June): Con 43%, Lab 40%, Lib Dem 6%, SNP 5%

  7. John P Reid says:

    Although the Tory vote only went up 330,000 in 2019

    I was predicting a thousand or so people I knew of who were on picket lines against thatcher in the 80’s who were going to vote Tory for the first time who voted labour all their lives
    I haven’t seen any signs they’re coming back to labour yet
    And they’re looking on at the way labour are acting now, like what planet are these people on

    And nothing I’ve heard will make them change their minds

    The grooming gang inquiry comes out ,it’ll just show they were right to vote Tory

  8. wg says:

    @Touchstone,

    Way to go – a government that is making a complete hash of leaving the EU, a government whose handling of Covid has led to unnecessary deaths, and a government that has a history of lies and deceit – and Labour are 4% behind.

    It’s baffling, isn’t it? /sarc

  9. Touchstone says:

    @ JPR – anecdata is a wonderful thing. I know a couple of “red wall” voters who are just beginning to realise they’ve been conned – shafted by COVID and then by the government. Four more years of being s**t on and I think they will be ready to try New New Labour. Personally don’t think this is necessarily a good thing in itself, but that’s always been the more electable version of Labour.

    Not sure why Labour is “on another planet”, Starmer is walking a fine line between opposing / scrutinising the government (his paid employment) and being a statesman in a time of national crisis. Anything he does will p*** off someone.

    @wg – not claiming Labour is polling brilliantly right now, but if this was an election campaign we’d say momentum was with them. My point was that polls can change very quickly – no such thing as brand loyalty in politics any more.

  10. John P Reid says:

    Touchstone you know 2 people in the red wall great just another 2 million to go
    As for starmer the fact he’s got those 2 votes back
    While losing greens gaining libdems if you think that doesn’t mean labour is close to power
    There’s 4 reports and Paul emberys court case all will make labour look bad
    Labour don’t win vote back from that

  11. Touchstone says:

    Yeah, never underestimate the determination of the British working classes to vote themselves poorer. Not that I can talk, a Corbyn government would have probably cost me quite a lot, but I still voted for him.

    Guess it’s all about the culture wars now.

  12. Tafia says:

    These are the last 6 weeks polls. The Tory vote-average slipped during the Cummings saga in mid-May but is holding at the last General Election levels. (43.6%). Labour’s is up on the GE2019 (32.2%), but it’s coming from the wrong group – mainly the Lib Dems, whose vote-average has halved. So although Labour are gaining support, it’s the wrong voters, in the wrong places, and they are continuing to decline in Scotland. English regional cross-breaks show the rise in Labour support is almost exclusively in the south, the south west, the metropolitan areas and largely concentrated in seats they already hold or are held by the Lib Dems.

    Shortly, public attention (ever fickle even on a good day) will switch away from Covid (remember, most people in the country don’t know anyone that has had it let alone died from it), and onto the EU, the Premier League, when pubs can open and when can they go to Benidorm. Stuff that to the masses, is way more important. I live across in East Riding now and the public up here ditched all the Covid rules in the first Bank Holiday weekend in May, two weeks before the Cummings saga and so long as you aren’t causing a drama the Police don’t bother with it.

    Redfield & Wilton, 11 May
    Con: 47%
    Lab: 35%
    LDem: 9%
    Grn: 3%
    Oth/DK/WNV: 6%

    SavantaComRes, 15-17 May
    Con: 46%
    Lab: 33%
    LDem: 7%
    Grn: 4%
    Oth/DK/WNV: 10%

    YouGov, 18-19 May
    Con: 48%
    Lab: 33%
    LDem: 6%
    Grn: 5%
    Oth/DK/WNV: 8%

    Opinium, 21-22 May
    Con: 47%
    Lab: 35%
    LDem: 6%
    Grn: 3%
    Oth/DK/WNV: 9%

    Survation, 22-26 May
    Con: 46%
    Lab: 33%
    LDem: 8%
    Grn: 4%
    Oth/DK/WNV: 9%

    YouGov, 25-26 May
    Con: 44%
    Lab: 38%
    LDem: 6%
    Grn: 4%
    Oth/DK/WNV: 8%

    YouGov, 26-27 May
    Con: 43%
    Lab: 38%
    LDem: 6%
    Grn: 4%
    Oth/DK/WNV: 9%

    Redfield & Wilton, 27 May
    Con: 43%
    Lab: 37%
    LDem: 9%
    Grn: 3%
    Oth/DK/WNV: 8%

    Opinium, 28-29 May
    Con: 43%
    Lab: 39%
    LDem: 6%
    Grn: 3%
    Oth/DK/WNV: 9%

    YouGov, 29-30 May
    Con: 45%
    Lab: 35%
    LDem: 6%
    Grn: 5%
    Oth/DK/WNV: 9%

    Redfield & Wilton, 03 Jun
    Con: 43%
    Lab: 36%
    LDem: 9%
    Grn: 5%
    Oth/DK/WNV: 7%

    Survation, 03 Jun
    Con: 41%
    Lab: 39%
    LDem: 7%
    Grn: 4%
    Oth/DK/WNV: 9%

    DeltaPoll, 03 Jun
    Con: 41%
    Lab: 38%
    LDem: 8%
    Grn: 4%
    Oth/DK/WNV: 9%

    Opinium, 04-05 Jun
    Con: 43%
    Lab: 40%
    LDem: 6%
    Grn: 3%
    Oth/DK/WNV: 8%

  13. Tafia says:

    The latest Scotland and Wales polls for those interested:-

    YouGov, 01 May, Scotland Only
    Westminster
    Scot: SNP 51%, SCon 25%, SLab 15%, SLD 6%, SGP 2%, Oth 1%
    Holyrood Const/List
    Scot: SNP 54/45%, SCon 23/23%, SLab 12/12%, SLD 8/7%, SGP 2/8%, Oth 1/5%

    PanelBase, 01-05 May, Scotland Only
    (Westminster Election)
    SNP: 50%, SCon: 26%, SLab: 17%, SLD: 5%, SGP: 2%, Oth: 1%

    YouGov, 29 May-01 Jun, Wales Only
    Westminster
    Lab: 39%, Con: 35%, Plaid: 15%, LDem: 5%, Grn: 3%, Oth: 3%
    Senedd, Const/List**
    Lab: 34/32%, Con: 31/28%, Plaid: 22/24%, LDem: 5/5%, Grn: 3/3%, Oth: 5/8%
    (**16/17 year olds can now vote in Senedd elections and the sample is adjusted to contain a representative sample of those ages for the Senedd figures. The 16/17 year olds appear massively Plaid Cymru)

  14. Tafia says:

    And hot off the press today is the latest Survation polling done over the last 48 hours.

    The interesting thing is the UK one, because Survation only did one a week ago so I have put the difference between the two in brackets – same pollster, same question, same panel, same methodology. The Welsh one I put up purely out of curiosity in that BXP seem fairly well entrenched for Senedd voting and it shows how Welsh voters vote quite differently at different levels. I used to live on Ynys Mon (Anglesey) which is one of the few constituencies that the Westminster, Senedd and Local Authority boundary are all identical, so it’s the same people votong at each level. It has a Tory MP (formerly Labour), a Plaid AM, and an Independent council (though across the 45 seats Plaid are the largest party, no Tories and 3 Labour.

    Survation, 9-10 Jun
    Con: 42% (+1)
    Lab: 36% (-3)
    LDem: 8% (-)
    Grn: 4% (-)
    Oth/DK/WNV: 10%

    Survation, 11 Jun, Wales Only
    Westminster
    Lab: 35%, Con: 38%, Plaid: 15%, LDem: 3%, Grn: 4%, Oth: 5%
    Senedd, Const/List**
    Lab: 40/36%, Con: 26/23%, Plaid: 18/22%, LDem: 7/7%, BXP: 8/10%, Oth: 2/2%
    (**16/17 year olds can now vote in Senedd elections and the sample is adjusted to contain a representative sample of those ages for the Senedd figures)

  15. Tafia says:

    And another poll just released:-

    Ipsos/MORI, 5-10Jun
    Con: 43%
    Lab: 38%
    LDem: 10%
    Grn: 3%
    Oth/DK/WNV:6%

    The below is the average of every poll in June in comparison to the actual figures for GE2019 which were Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, SNP 3.9%, Grn 2.7%

    Con 42.2% (-1.4)
    Lab 37.8% (+5.6)
    LD 8% (-3.6)
    SNP 4% (+0.1)
    Green 4.5% (+1.8)

    If I was a Tory strategist, given the floods, the Patel ‘Bullying’, Javid resigning, 10 weeks of Covid, I’d be pretty satisfied with that. Likewise if I was a Labour strategist, I would be extremely disheartened that Starmers ‘honeymoon’ period sees his party trailing the government by 4.4% and because of the way FPTP works and the distortion of the SNP, the Tories would take an overall majority on the current figures. Starmer is just another Miliband.

  16. Tafia says:

    And another poll just released:-

    Ipsos/MORI, 5-10 Jun
    Con: 43%
    Lab: 38%
    LDem: 10%
    Grn: 3%
    Oth/DK/WNV:6%

    The below is the average of every poll in June in comparison to the actual figures for GE2019 which were Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, SNP 3.9%, Grn 2.7%

    Con 42.2% (-1.4)
    Lab 37.8% (+5.6)
    LD 8% (-3.6)
    SNP 4% (+0.1)
    Green 4.5% (+1.8)

    If I was a Tory strategist, given the floods, the Patel ‘Bullying’, Javid resigning, 10 weeks of Covid, I’d be pretty satisfied with that. Likewise if I was a Labour strategist, I would be extremely disheartened that Starmers ‘honeymoon’ period sees his party trailing the government by 4.4% and because of the way FPTP works and the distortion of the SNP, the Tories would take an overall majority on the current figures. Starmer is just another Miliband.

  17. Anne says:

    Tory Trolls/scammers bask in the glory of your poll lead – it does not reflect that Johnson is not popular, nor the fact that the government is ineffective in its duties. The country has to live with this disastrous government – that is the fact of the matter.

  18. John P Reid says:

    Touchstone in 1981 labour spent ages telling the public it served them right for unemployment and they should all come crawling back to labour begging for forgiveness for voting us out

  19. Touchstone says:

    @Tafia LOL went fishing for chub, caught a 40 lb pike!

  20. Carol says:

    It looks as if we are in for some vicious culture wars and that will play very badly with red wall voters. They are not ashamed to be patriotic and attacking the Cenotaph will disgust them. I have been impressed by Kier Starmer’s forensic abilities but I doubt that he can turn his party into a winning force. I doubt that Labour can ever win power again. I am glad that my kindly, tough minded, grandfather isn’t here to see the party he revered, reduced to a poster boy for media luvvies, and identity politics. The red wall voters will tire of Johnson but the Tories understand the nature of power and will get rid of Johnson, when necessary.

  21. John P Reid says:

    Carol
    Quite
    The young ones TV had a statue called penis de Milo with it hanging out the bottom of her dress
    This statue should replace Colston
    If Women have penises

    Labour has to decide to be the party of Owen Jones or the party of Julia Harley brewer or see how many of those red wall seats got Tory at council elections

  22. wg says:

    @Carol – your grandfather would have been very much like my grandfather.
    He believed in the Labour Party/trade union family.

    I remember that generation – they planted their feet in the ground in front of me and fought for my job, wage, pension etc.
    They would certainly never have fallen for this globalisation malarky that has taken the UK’s working people back 100 years.

    If your grandfather – and mine – were here today, they would be regarded as populists or nativists in the party that was set up by their parents and grandparents.

    The Labour Party need to wake up to this – it’s not the EU, or bankers, or the Tory ERG – we can deal with that – it’s about people, and their culture, and identity.

    The Labour Party see these things as dispensable: why should the dispensable come out and vote for a political party that doesn’t believe in them?

  23. John P Reid says:

    Wg Trevor Philips last 10 minutes here says the labour part feels appealing to one identity block appeasing them at the expense of ignoring the concerns of another, is Where it’s gone
    tafia hints at this in the other page https://www.spiked-online.com/podcast-episode/liberals-hate-black-people-they-cant-patronise/

  24. John Reid says:

    Austerity was a choice it was the bankers that causes it
    we lost the elections but we need to fight the argument there was another way the other way is to cut slower and to borrow to invest and spend on those who need it In cutting to quick caused stagflation and cause more money to be spent on wasted projects but they’ve spent too much time worrying about identity politics is why we lose election is just going to lose another one

Leave a Reply