Revealed: New poll shows 1 in 4 non-Labour voters considering backing Starmer but they want a decisive break from the Corbyn era – 60% say expel Corbyn if he doesn’t apologise over anti-Semitism

by Atul Hatwal

New research conducted for Labour Uncut by pollster Yonder (the new name for Populus) reveals that just over 1 in 4 non-Labour voters (26%) would consider voting Labour at the next election. But Jeremy Corbyn is still a huge negative with 66% of this group worried about the continued influence of Corbynites in Labour and 60% saying his expulsion from Labour, if he doesn’t apologise over anti-Semitism, would make them more likely to vote Labour.

The polling, conducted by Yonder between the 13th and 14th September with 2,010 respondents, revealed that 1 in 7 Conservative voters (14%), over half of Lib Dems (53%) and 1 in 4 SNP (26%) are considering voting Labour. Based on Labour’s current standing in the polls, attracting even half of those thinking about backing Keir Starmer and Labour would send the party into government with a vote share in the mid-forties.

However, Labour’s potential voters want a clear break from the Corbyn era.  A series of statements articulating potential reasons for not voting Labour, drawn from previous research, were put to this group and despite a clear appetite for policies such as higher spending on public services and a higher minimum wage, Jeremy Corbyn and his legacy remain toxic.

A net +39% agreed with the statement “I didn’t want Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister and worry that people like him are still too influential in Labour”

Next week, at Labour conference Jeremy Corbyn will once again be in the spotlight and much of the debate about Labour will be defined through the prism of the former leader.

He’s currently suspended from the parliamentary party for saying that the extent of anti-Semitism in the party was “dramatically over-stated” following the publication of the EHRC report into Labour and anti-Semitism, but he had already been readmitted to the party at the point the report was published and so, as a party member not a Labour MP, will be speaking at various Labour conference fringe events. He’ll have a political and media retinue trailing along after him, distracting from the main conference, in the manner that Boris Johnson used to at Conservative conference in the early to mid-2010s.

For Labour’s potential voters, Jeremy Corbyn and anti-Semitism are likely to be a major part of what they see about Labour on their screens. On behalf of Uncut, Yonder polled non-Labour voters considering backing the party on the question that will be raised repeatedly – should Jeremy Corbyn be expelled from the party if he doesn’t apologise for what he said. The results were unequivocal – 60% said that they were more likely to vote Labour if he was expelled, 19% said they’d be less likely, a net majority of 41%.

Current Labour voters were similarly clear that Jeremy Corbyn should be expelled if he does not apologise. In response to the same statement, 35% said they would be more likely to vote Labour, 16% less likely, a net majority of 19%.

Noone in the Labour party believes the current impasse over Jeremy Corbyn is sustainable. How can it be that he’s crossed a red line in terms of membership of the Parliamentary Labour Party because of his position on anti-Semitism, but somehow this doesn’t matter for his Labour party membership? Questions over his status will continue to suck oxygen from the issues that Labour wants to talk about, trapping the party in debate that should have ended when he left the leadership.

A decision at some point, is inevitable, likely in the coming months. Either Keir Starmer stands by his commendable stance on anti-Semitism and expels Jeremy Corbyn from the party (assuming there is no last minute apology) or he hands a victory to his opponents on the left by giving Jeremy Corbyn the parliamentary whip back, prompting a huge revolt in the PLP and pushes a significant proportion of the 1 in 4 non-Labour voters considering Labour, back towards their current parties.

The polling was conducted as part of the research for a new book “Labour’s reset: the path back to power” which Uncut will be launching at Labour conference next week. The book looks at the barriers for voters in picking Labour, what the party can do in opposition to tackle these issues and the type of policy platform that would attract switchers to Labour at the election. Contributors range from former MPs to former senior officials to elected representatives. Over the coming days we’ll be publishing pieces from the book and articles based on the polling.

Atul Hatwal is editor of Labour Uncut


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23 Responses to “Revealed: New poll shows 1 in 4 non-Labour voters considering backing Starmer but they want a decisive break from the Corbyn era – 60% say expel Corbyn if he doesn’t apologise over anti-Semitism”

  1. A.J. says:

    First Berger has to travel to a Labour conference under escort. Now Rosie Duffield says she’s too apprehensive to attend. Might the electorate not wonder what is happening? Might they not expect an answer? First anti-Jewishness, now this trans nonsense. Someone may as well hand Labour a rope then point the way to the nearest tree.

  2. A.J. says:

    What passes for thinking on the Left is all over the place. Even the likes of Paul Mason suggest that Labour cannot win alone but must look for support from the various fruitcakes that still wear socks with their sandals, like to boast that their best friend’s friend is, you know, a chap who enjoys his peeing in a female ‘rest room’ and is furrow-browed to discover his imported vegan meal has left a carbon footprint the size of Stoke Newington. In England, I suppose, a bit of a timid ‘Green’ or a wavering Liberal Democrat (well, that pretty boy Clegg did climb into bed with that naughty Mr. Cameron, you’ll remember).
    Still, they can all take comfort from the fact that what passes for thinking in the so-called ‘Conservative Party’ is more or less non-existent and probably has been since the likes of Alan Walters were doing the advising.

  3. A.J. says:

    Corbyn should not be expelled, he should be cherished. It was wonderful having him around, if only to remind us of the 1970s. He should be simply tidied up a bit then put inside a glass case and sent to the Museum Of Socialist History, where post-graduate students can gaze upon him in awe, just as if he was one of the Bog People.

  4. John P Reid says:

    The more Corbyn won’t apologise for his dismissal of the EHRC and jon a mcdonnell and co. Saying Daft things like re instate Corbyn to unite the party
    Which isn’t true

    The more Corbyn will make him unbpopular with his local party

    He orobsbly won’t be selected by his party and will stand as independent
    But they can re select him while he’s not got the whip

  5. Tafia says:

    I don’t know who taught you maths at school Atul, but if I was you I would ask for a refund.

    You obviously do not understand polling, not to mention Yonder/Populas are somewhat ‘off the beaten track’.

    You really need to drill down into the data tables (if they’ve bothered providing them) and comapre with similar by oyjer pollsters other wise you don’t even reach the grade of pathetic.

  6. steve says:

    Surely, the major concern for the LP must be what would happen to the Labour Party if it is only associated with the befuddled, policy-lite Starmer and his lacklustre PLP colleagues?

    Go ahead, do Corbyn a favour and dump him. But, when the Left is gone, the LP will still be without the political talent needed to develop and convincingly present a credible alternative.

  7. Tafia says:

    By the way, the Tories wobbled a bit during and straight after the NI hike, but since then they’ve stabilised at a couple of decimal places under 4% lead and are now increasing again and back above 40, and Labour are declining again. Conference season starts very soon as well, each party always increases just after it’s conference, then slowly slips again. You also know (or at least you ought to), that we are now mid-term, and the government will now do the unpopopular stuff, before easing off into the run-in to the next election, hence why it is traditional for the Opposition to overtake the government at this time, by as much as 20%. This does not bode well for Labour, because the Tory lead is remaining despite the unpopular stuff now being done.

    Tell you what Atul, we’ll stick a bit more detail up from a couple of more reliable pollsters shall we? (You’ll have to pass of course because you’ll be a bit out of depth.
    Morons look at one poll in isolation and only look at the headline part. You need to look at a series of polls both in date order and date order by pollster – some pollsters, such as Opinium for example, have an in-built Labour bias for some reason and routinely poll Labour higher than where they are and the Tories lower.)

    ——————————–

    These are from this week, Tory figure first then Labour:-

    Best PM:- 31/26
    Manage the economy:- 33/25
    Respond to Covid:- 32/23
    Manage foreign affairs:- 31/24
    Tackle crime:- 29/24
    Support NHS:- 27/31
    Support education:- 26/28
    Deal with immigration:- 25/25
    Deal with housing:- 22/28
    Tackle poverty:- 21/32
    Environment:- 91/20

    —————————————————–

    Which do you consider are the three top issues for next next GE:-

    Healthcare:- 53%
    Economy:- 38%
    Education:- 29%
    Welfare spending:- 23%
    Covid:- 20%
    Housing:- 20%
    Environment:- 19%
    Taxes:- 18%
    Police & Crime:- 18%
    Brexit:- 17%
    Immigration:- 16%
    Pensions:- 14%
    Foreign policy:- 4%
    Transport:- 4%
    Scottish Indepenence:- 3%

    ————————

    By Age (and remeber, over 25’s are far far more likely to vote)

    Top Five Issues for under-25’s :-
    Mental Health (36)
    Environment/Climate change.(34)
    BAME rights (27)
    NHS (26)
    Gender equality (23)

    Top 5 for 25 and over :-
    NHS ( 41)
    COVID ( 28)
    Mental Heath ( 22)
    Immigration ( 20)
    Poverty ( 19)

    ——————————————–

    These are usually revisited every week, using a similar sample base by age, gender, ethnicity, socio-economic group & circumstance etc etc and are, taken in a series, highly indicative of public mood and what’s trending and what isn’t (for example as autumn sets in and the number of channel crossers drops, immigration drops as well. Get a couple of big stories about grooming gangs or stabbings etc that week and Police/Crime increases etc etc. The voting public are highly fickle and remarkably shallow and will re-prioritise just because of a couple fo news stories that week.).

  8. A.J. says:

    I think steve touches – even hits – upon an interesting point here. Yet, must he not ask himself: what kind of shape would Labour be in now had it opted for the Momentum candidate? ‘Becky’ is even more of a bottle of pop and a biscuit figure than ‘Ang’. (Lisa Nandy might just about manage a Diet Lucozade). Britain’s Got Talent? Labour ain’t, other than Bridget Phillipson. As for the so-called ‘Tories’ (those evil monsters that cause Owen Jones to wet his bed each night before texting Polly for solace) they have Dishy possibly waiting in the wings. Will voters vaguely remember his name, his actions, the smug expression on his face? Did they savour their Eat Out To Help Out chicken nuggets?
    A ‘credible alternative’, though. When are we talking about?

  9. Anne says:

    For goodness sake Uncut MOVE ON. Why spend time on this subject. Corbyn is not going apologise because he believes his statement to be true. Now accept that, and by the way people are entitled to hold opinions. Corbyn is not in a senior position nor ever will be again. We have to start looking to the future – not back. Addressing governance and policies – that is what people want – what does Labour stand for. Corbyn is past – do not waste any more time on this subject.

  10. Ye, welcome back Atul. Where have you been? Change UK has been gone for more than a year now. You should be a bit careful on your advice and predictions after so many failures on this website. When you read that 1 in 4 non-Labour voters may vote Labour if Corbyn is expelled, didn’t you at least think it would be interesting to think about how many Labour voters wouldn’t vote Labour again? Certainly the would be the end of any meaningful youth vote coming Labour’s way. Have you and Rob both rejoined the party now or didn’t either of you actually leave?

    A.J. you have only made 4 comments. Are you sick?

  11. A.J. says:

    ‘Labour’s front bench is decent and serious’ (Toynbee).

    ‘People are entitled to hold opinions’ (Anne).

    Goodness me, what a thought.

    Peter Mandelson might yet disagree with you.

    As for Toynbee’s contribution, well, you can draw your own conclusions. Doubtless, if you ferret around a bit, you’ll find someone who ‘liked’ a tweet from some gay hip-hop type in Chicago. That might well be the condition of mainstream English politics today.

  12. A.J. says:

    Toynbee’s article is attracting a fair amount of attention and a good deal of flak. Some of her readership got her measure years ago: same old same old etc. Well, you know Polly. Now, does anyone seriously believe that Labour will be in sufficient shape to win the General Election, whenever it comes? I mean, even with rising gas prices, a lack of toys for the kiddies for Christmas and no courgettes in Waitrose you’d have to be pretty bloody desperate. Even with Johnson the arse that he is.
    So, let’s say Labour lose. What then? What narrative will Polly adopt and string out? Same old same old very likely. And there will be the usual yelps about abolishing FPTP etc etc. and as little contextualising as she and her cry-baby supporters can get away with. Even Paul Mason is talking about rainbow coalitions – something Hobsbawm was wittering away about years ago re the alleged anti-‘Conservative’ majority across the UK. It might be the way to go but Labour have already been put on notice they might have to play second or third fiddle – to the Greens and the SNP?
    Can’t see that going down well with the party faithful.

  13. A.J. says:

    Danny, Tafia and I are taking it in turns.

    Meanwhile I’m reading a dodgy book on Northern Soul.

    Which Paul Mason may also have looked into.

  14. A.J. says:

    Some little sweetie called Harriet Williamson is laying into Rose Duffield in ‘The Independent’ Apparently Rosie isn’t entitled to voice her opinion. I thought that approach wouldn’t last long. Anne?
    Some of this smarty-pants types in the ‘Independent’ ought to try talking to a woman who has had to undergo surgery to have – shall we say – her uterus or a breast removed.
    Labour will not gain many converts in the middle-class enclaves around me by pushing this line.

  15. Tafia says:

    The Labour Party was fined £1820 at the start of the month for failing to deliver accurate quarterly donation reports.

    In addition, Labour Together – a group for Labour activists, was fined £14,520 for the same offence plus two others.

    The fines were paid without contest.

  16. John P Reid says:

    Danny Speight
    Well excluding all those who died or post brexit and ukips death
    Labour got 800,000 more votes in 1019 than 2015
    So assuming eveyone who voted labour in 2015 didn’t vote labour Cos of Corbyn

    And Labour’s gone down 3.2million votes in the last 4 years

    So even if everyone whos came over to labour since 2015 quit it’s, the same as those who’ve stopped voted labour in The last 5 years

  17. John P Reid says:

    Danny Speight
    Well excluding all those who died or post brexit and ukips death
    Labour got 800,000 more votes in 2019 than 2015
    So assuming eveyone who voted labour in 2015 didn’t vote labour Cos of Corbyn

    And Labour’s gone down 3.2million votes in the last 4 years

    So even if everyone whos came over to labour since 2015 quit it’s, the same as those who’ve stopped voted labour in The last 5 years

  18. Re. John P Reid says:
    As quite often happens John you have lost me. Corbyn got 3,531,187 more votes in 2017 than Miliband got in 2015. Even in the disaster that was 2019 Corbyn got 921,778 more votes than Miliband. Maybe have another go at explaining your point. The numbers back to 1992 are below. The percentages of the popular vote are also shown which takes out population growth somewhat.

    2019 10,269,051 32.1% Corbyn
    2017 12,878,460 40% Corbyn
    2015 9,347,273 30.4% Miliband (the younger one)
    2010 8,609,527 29.0% Brown
    2005 9,552,436 35.2% Blair
    2001 10,724,953 40.7% Blair
    1997 13,518,167 43.2% Blair
    1992 11,560,484 34.4% Kinnock (the older one)

  19. John P Reid says:

    AJ
    I wasn’t gonna read Toynbee article on how well Labour’s doing but you convinced me
    She says Keir Starmer was unknown so it’s not his fault Labour’s not doing better
    He wasn’t hardly known he was the key architect of labour policy a 2nd referendum for remain that’s why he’ll never be PM

    The bit that was interesting was The fuel protesters in 2000 nearly bring us down
    I remember it
    Not giving info bullies another reason why we won in 2001

    Seems my last comment went out twice, lol

  20. wg says:

    I really do wish that both sections of the present Labour Party could split up and form their own parties.
    Can’t we have a Socialist Party (Corbynistas) and a Social Democratic Party (Blairite globalists) and leave a representative Labour Party for the rest of us.
    It seems to be either the Islington mob or the IPPR/Fabian NWO mafia – all we want is representation in our Parliament.
    At present most of us feel ourselves being forced into the hands of another party or not voting at all.

  21. A.J. says:

    Bernard Ingham is talking Boris Johnson up in the ‘Daily Express’. Why? What does Johnson have in common with Ingham’s old boss? Oh, yes, of course, they both belonged to the so-called ‘Conservative Party’. As it’s being said elsewhere, vote ‘Conservative’ get Labour. That’s the way it’s shaping up. A new Butskellism anyone?

  22. John P Reid says:

    Danny I was pointing it as labourvkist lots of the vited it gained in 2017, in 2019 it assumes that the Tories haven’t also gained as many votes snd labour also only gained a few seats in 2017

    Dragging your the statistics of the last 30 years is irrelevant
    There’s 6 million more people on the electoral register noe then there was 24 years ago

    It’s like saying Wilson got 11.44m votes in Oct 74
    17 1/2 years later Kinnock got 11.56m votes snd 4% less of the vote than 74 and lost but Wilson won

  23. John P Reid says: “There’s 6 million more people on the electoral register noe then there was 24 years ago”

    John which is why I point towards the percentage of the popular vote. Did you read where I did that. “The percentages of the popular vote are also shown which takes out population growth somewhat.”

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