by Kevin Meagher
Is Labour going to win on Thursday? I spent a big chunk of Sunday canvassing in the Denton and Gorton by-election. Hand on heart, it feels eminently winnable. Canvassers report the surge for Reform they noticed in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election last year – where Farage’s gang won by just six votes – is absent this time. The talk is of a genuine three-way split, with the Greens also in contention.
But Labour is still in the game. This is the party’s sixth-safest seat, encompassing south Manchester and the westernmost wards of Tameside, bifurcated by the Denton island roundabout on the M60. In appearance, both areas are similar: long roads of red-brick semis, interspersed with new builds. Family homes. Owner occupiers, in the main. Nice cars. Respectable people. Pride in place. Labour’s upper-working-class base.
On the ground, Reform and the Greens are throwing everything at it and no doubt meeting with a fair degree of success, but there is no sense of either pulling miles ahead. Only the main parties have put the years into developing their ground game. In such a short campaign, enthusiasm and money aren’t as important as know-how. Reform and the Greens are newer at it – and it shows.
Yes, there are garden stakes – split fairly evenly between the parties – with Labour just edging it on my count. Window posters too. But Reform’s were simply unfolded election leaflets with a small picture of their candidate, Matt Goodwin, while the Greens posters were generic ‘Vote Green.’ It felt like no-one had enjoyed a head start.
On the doorstep the reaction was a mixed bag. One elderly gentleman made it to the door to give me a ticking-off. Was there any particular issue that had generated his ire? ‘Keir Starmer and genocide,’ he replied without further elaboration as he waved me away.
Another man, a bus driver, was a bit disgruntled with Andy Burnham’s major public transport improvements. He had been moved to a different depot and didn’t see his mates as much. He sighed and said that he would still be voting Labour.
Burnham came up again with an elderly lady in Denton. She was generally cheesed-off about the cost-of-living, especially the proposed cut to the winter fuel allowance. ‘But we rely on it,’ she kept insisting, grateful that the decision to chop it for pensioners like her had been rescinded. ‘I’m not sure what I’ll do,’ she said. ‘But I would have voted for Andy Burnham, I like him.’
A woman of around forty was thinking of voting Reform. That was certainly her father’s advice, but her brother was ‘a socialist’ and was telling her to stick with Labour. ‘We don’t get everything right, but we’re on the side of people like you,’ I said. Again, the cost of living reared its head. ‘We’re increasing the minimum wage in April,’ I mentioned. That was the key. ‘I’m on the minimum wage. Go on then, I’ll vote for you.’
A couple in their sixties came to the door. The woman had already sent her postal vote back. She was solidly Labour. Her husband was erring. He felt ‘let down’ but disliked Reform and thought the Greens were ‘mad.’ He was definitely going to vote and as he processed his options concluded that he would also stick with Labour.
Among the more politically committed there was a strong sense of ‘stopping Reform.’ That came up again and again. The Greens received the benefit of the doubt more readily, but their position on legalising hard drugs was strongly opposed. The vibe felt more positive in the Gorton part of the constituency. Later in the afternoon, the reception in Denton was more mixed. It felt colder – metaphorically and literally – with the chilly Peak District just a few miles away. This is where Reform is hoping to capitalise.
My experiences may of course be totally wayward, but it felt like voters were looking over the precipice but hesitating before jumping. With the benefit of a good candidate in Angeliki Stogia (a local councillor for more than a decade) years of fighting tough byelections and with a lot of voters willing to vote tactically against both Reform and the Greens, Labour remains highly competitive. Its going to be close though, everyone agrees on that.
Having been rash and already staked out my colours, I will repeat that Labour will hold the seat. Expect a low turnout and recounts into Friday morning.
Kevin Meagher is Associate Editor of Labour Uncut
Tags: by-election, Denton and Gorton, Greens, Kevin Meagher, Manchester, reform
