Support for Tories and Lib Dems drops

Support for Britain’s first peacetime coalition in 70 years has fallen dramatically since David Cameron and Nick Clegg launched the government in the Downing Street rose garden last May, according to the latest Guardian/ICM poll. The poll finds that after six months of Conservative-LibDem rule just 43% think coalition government was the right decision for Britain while 47% now disagree. In May, in answer to a slightly differently worded question, 59% backed the coalition while 32% disagreed with the decision to form it. Rising Labour support has cut into the government’s popularity. Other results from the poll, published earlier this month, put Labour support at a three-year high of 39%. Lib Dem support was at a five-year low of 13%. The Conservatives were on 37%, up one point from November. – The Guardian

Trouble in paradise

Nick Clegg, the Lib Dem Deputy Prime Minister, is understood to have ordered his MPs to embrace their Coalition partners amid fears that strains between the two sides could begin to undermine the Government. Last week, a number of ministers were embarrassed after making highly critical remarks about the Tories to reporters from The Daily Telegraph posing as constituents. With both sides said to be bruised by the row, John Redwood, a former Conservative Cabinet minister, rejected angrily suggestions that the role of the Liberal Democrats in government was to “bridle the instincts” of the Conservatives. He accused the party’s MPs of seeking to claim the credit for policies which the Tories had also campaigned for, such as cutting income tax for the low paid, channelling funding to poorer pupils and restoring civil liberties. – The Telegraph

‘Patchy’ results expected from Lansley’s reforms

A “complacent” Department of Health will face an annual £10bn shortfall unless it speeds up efficiency savings across the NHS and considers cuts to social care and cancer research charities, according to a secret Whitehall report leaked to the Guardian. The damning report warns that ministers will face an “unpalatable trade-off” between longer waiting times or a massive increase in the NHS budget unless dramatic savings are found. It also warns that the central reform proposed by health secretary Andrew Lansley – to devolve 80% of the NHS budget to GPs – could have “patchy” results. The findings are outlined in a blunt letter to Danny Alexander, the Treasury chief secretary, from the Independent Challenge Group, which was set up at the time of the budget in June to question Whitehall thinking. – The Guardian

The letter, sent to Treasury Chief Secretary Danny Alexander, questioned whether efficiency savings from quality, innovation, productivity and prevention (QIPP) would be achieved. It also raised concerns about the cost of the switchover to the government’s flagship policy of GP commissioning. The letter said: “Taken together, the NHS could therefore face a significant budget shortfall by the end of the SP [spending] period. “The NHS typically deals with such shortfalls by limiting treatments, leading to increased waiting times. “The government will be faced with a choice between dealing with the fallout from increased waiting times or increasing the DH’s budget, perhaps by as much as £10bn per year.” – BBC

Axing of free books is ‘gross cultural vandalism’

Philip Pullman, the children’s writer and author of the His Dark Materials trilogy, and Sir Andrew Motion, the former poet laureate, are among a number of figures in the arts’ world to condemn the Government’s decision to withdraw funding from the Bookstart scheme. The charity, which has run since 1992 and been Government-funded since 2004, was told a week before Christmas that it would lose its entire £13 million grant in England. Booktrust, which runs Bookstart and whose co-founder Wendy Cooling was awarded the MBE in 2008 for services to children’s literacy, provides a pack of books to parents when their babies are born, and more books as they get older. Describing the cuts as “wanton destruction,” Mr Pullman said that ministers were guilty of: “…sheer stupid vandalism, like smashing Champagne bottles as a drunken undergraduate”. He went on: “If you miss the first years of a child’s development, nothing can clear it up. It’s gone. It won’t happen. A whole generation will lose out. “Bookstart is one of the most imaginative and generous schemes ever conceived.” – The Telegraph

Decision on Bookstart “repugnant, foolish and pointlessly destructive”

Leading writers today rounded on the government for its “repugnant, foolish and pointlessly destructive” decision to axe all funding for a free book scheme that benefits 3.3 million youngsters a year. Children’s author Philip Pullman attacked the move as an “unforgivable disgrace”, while the former poet laureate Sir Andrew Motion described the cut as “an act of gross cultural vandalism”. These uncompromising views were echoed by Viv Bird, chief executive of the Booktrust charity, who said she was “astounded and appalled” when told all government support for their work was going to be scrapped. “There was no dialogue. It was completely devastating,” she said. – The Observer

It is impossible to know what return the state might be getting on its investment in Booktrust. The system hasn’t been running long enough to tell whether the beneficiaries are more literate than they otherwise might have been, or whether they have more vivid imaginations, or whether they love books more. Only a minister inspired by Thomas Gradgrind, the crudely utilitarian headmaster in Dickens’s Hard Times, would attempt such a calculation. In fact, the decision to axe Bookstart over Christmas suggests education secretary Michael Gove gets his inspiration from a different Dickens character… Free books for children? Humbug! – The Observer

Tories and Lib Dems attempt to paper over cracks

A senior Conservative minister has become the first member of the government to back proposals to field coalition candidates at the next general election.His comments to The Sunday Telegraph came as both parties began a battle to bolster the coalition in the wake of a week of damaging revelations made by Vince Cable and other Lib Dem ministers to undercover reporters. Nick Clegg, the Lib Dem leader and Deputy Prime Minister, signalled his “irritation” over remarks made by his party colleagues, several of whom hit out both personally at Tory ministers and politically at Conservative-inspired policies, including removing child benefit from higher earners. Amid efforts to mend broken fences, the minister, often seen as one of a tight inner-circle of “Cameroons”, went further than any member of the government yet has in endorsing joint candidates. He said: “I’m sure you can find plenty of Tories who would say similar things to what the Lib Dems have been saying. People say this is a sign that things are falling apart, but the amazing thing is how well the Coalition has worked together. – Sunday Telegraph

With tricky political challenges ahead – the Oldham and Saddleworth by-election on 13 January; votes on control orders, the scrapping of which was a Lib Dem priority; the local and Scottish and Welsh elections; the referendum on the alternative vote in May – do they make a merit of creative tension and disagreement from now on, because it is impossible to cover up, or do they seek to put a lid on it? Clegg, who wants Lib Dems to “own the coalition” and not endlessly list their own victories and “trophies”, clearly believes they must do the latter. Paul Goodman, a former Tory frontbencher now working for the ConservativeHome website, agrees: “I think that with the modern media, trying to have a public conversation would lead to endless reports about splits and it would become impossible.” But many in Clegg’s party disagree. The coalition’s real difficulty is that even on the issue of how to manage their own division, they are split. – The Observer

Jeremy Hunt’s links with Murdoch

Labour MP Tom Watson said: “It seems unprecedented that such a high level and legally significant meeting would not have civil servants present taking notes. I will be asking the chairman of the culture, media and sport select committee to ask Jeremy Hunt to explain himself to us as soon as possible”. Mr Hunt also attended a dinner hosted by News Corp on May 20, within weeks of coming into office, with his aide Adam Smith. Labour has questioned whether Mr Hunt’s relationship with News Corp and BSkyB made him a “fit and proper person” to take over Vince Cable’s powers to approve the £8billion bid which was made on June 10. – The Telegraph

Tories in Europe “nutty”

Jeremy Browne described some of the Conservatives’ partners in the European Parliament as “nutty”. He said foreign diplomats were delighted that the Lib Dems had ensured the Government was “far more amenable and civilised” towards the European Union than a Tory administration. The disclosures are made on the fourth and final day of The Daily Telegraph investigation into the true feelings of senior Lib Dems towards the Coalition. Speaking to an undercover reporter posing as a supporter in his Taunton Deane constituency, Mr Browne, who is regarded as being on the Right wing of his party, disclosed that he and colleagues had been engaged in a struggle to persuade the Tories to relax a planned cap on immigration. – The Telegraph

Tories U-turn on hunt vote

The Government is to shelve a promised vote on repealing the ban on foxhunting until 2012 at the earliest, in a move likely to dismay countryside campaigners as they attempt to set out for Boxing Day meetings. David Cameron, a self-confessed “country boy”, has condemned the 2005 ban on hunting with dogs as a “mistake” which intruded into part of rural life “where the criminal law shouldn’t go”. However, the Conservative election pledge to hold a free vote on repeal “early” after polling day has been abandoned, senior officials at the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs admitted on Friday. With major reforms of the health, education, and welfare systems being piloted through Parliament, no vote is expected in 2011. “There are many greater priorities facing the Government at the moment,” said Jim Paice, the Agriculture Minister. – The Independent

Vince: I could bring down the government

Vince Cable has privately threatened to “bring the Government down” if he is “pushed too far” during fractious discussions with his Conservative colleagues, The Daily Telegraph can disclose. The Business Secretary also claims that David Cameron will seek to scrap or reduce the winter fuel allowance paid to pensioners from next year. He believes that policies are being rushed through by the Conservatives and that ministers should be “putting a brake on” some proposals, which are in “danger of getting out of control”. Mr Cable says that, behind the scenes, the Tories and Liberal Democrats are fighting a “constant battle”, including over tax proposals. Likening the conflict to a war, he says he can always use the “nuclear option” of resignation. His departure from the Government would spell the end of the Coalition, he claims. – The Telegraph

What on earth did Vince Cable think he was doing being so frank with two people he had never met who turned up in his constituency? They were from the Daily Telegraph and now he’s all over its front page. Was there an element of showing off? Perhaps. But for him to have unburdened himself, as though he was on the psychiatrists couch, is a little odd. He understands that he is the glue in the coalition, rather than Nick Clegg. Cameron simply cannot afford to lose him. If Vince were to go then this government would struggle to survive. Cable isn’t threatening to walk right away, just making it clear that he has the power to disrupt and destroy the coalition if it comes to it. But beyond his potentially explosive “I’m so tough I could bring the government down” comments, Vince Cable’s answers contain some fascinating and revealing insights. – Wall Street Journal

Lyndon Johnson famously said of J Edgar Hoover that it was better to have him inside the tent p***ing out, than outside the tent p***ing in. I wonder if David Cameron still feels the same way about Vince Cable after his latest gaffe? Of the senior Lib Dems included in the Cabinet, Cable has proved to be the least impressive. He manages to combine a ludicrously inflated sense of his own political importance – “I can walk out of the government and bring the government down” – with a lack of core political skills. Listening to him drone on at Cabinet meetings must be nigh on unendurable. – The Telegraph

Cameron meets union leaders

Union leaders told the PM that ConDem cuts were “dangerous and divisive” during a mince pie summit at Downing Street yesterday. It was the first meeting for 25 years between a Tory government and leaders of Britain’s biggest unions. TUC General Secretary Brendan Barber said: “We warned the Prime Minister that next year promises to be even bleaker for millions.” The unions also took David Cameron to task over Royal Mail privatisation and public second pensions. Mark Serwotka, from the Public and Commercial ­Services Union, said: “We’ll not be drawn into accepting cuts with the occasional promise of tea and a cosy chat in Downing Street.” Unite’s Len McCluskey, who missed the meeting due to the weather, threatened a “general strike” over cuts. But he was slapped down by Labour leader Ed Miliband for “overblown rhetoric”. – The Mirror
Threat of Tory rebellion over high speed rail

Ministers announced a series of changes yesterday to plans for a £12bn high-speed rail link from London to Birmingham in an effort to avert a Conservative rebellion against the scheme. The connection, to be built between 2016 and 2026, will cut the journey time between the two cities to less than 50 minutes. A second spur would eventually link Birmingham to Manchester and Leeds by the 2030s.The proposed scheme has provoked fury among Tory MPs with constituencies along the proposed route. Critics include Cheryl Gillan, the Welsh Secretary, and David Lidington, the Europe minister, as well as John Bercow, the Commons Speaker. Philip Hammond, the Transport Secretary, insisted there was no prospect of the plans being dropped. “It is my view that a high-speed rail network would deliver a transformational change to the way Britain works and competes in the 21st century,” he said. “It will allow the economies of the Midlands and the North to benefit much more directly from the economic engine of London.” – The Independent

School sports U-turn

Education Secretary Michael Gove will today confirm a £70m funding reprieve from cuts to School Sports Partnerships, saving the jobs of 2,000 school sports coordinators and support staff. The move follows a high profile campaign supported by Olympic athletes, sports personalities and Shadow Education Secretary, Andy Burnham. David Cameron stepped in after Conservative MPs warned cuts to sport would be detrimental to the Government’s image ahead of the 2012 Olympics. – PoliticsHome

Cameron & Osborne are wrong. The IFS is right

Cameron and Osborne have contemptuously dismissed the just-published predictions by the independent Institute for Fiscal Studies. Based on complex modelling and government policies, the IFS forecasts that over the next four years both relative and absolute poverty will rise for children and work-age adults – between 800,000 to 900,000 are expected to be affected. A designer who makes stupidly expensive handbags, Anya Hindmarch, now a government business champion, said recently that she quite liked recessions – or “clean-up times. That is how this lot think. The Chancellor says airily that their cuts and “reforms” will have “… no measurable impact on child poverty over the next two years”. Believe that and you really believe in a white-haired, beardy bloke comes down chimneys bringing sackfuls of pressies. The real plan was revealed by insider MP Nicholas Boles this week. It is to create a “chaotic” environment where, presumably, the fittest make it. – Independent

Strike warning

The UK faces the prospect of widespread and co-ordinated industrial action in the new year, with the leader of the largest trade union today warning that it is “preparing for battle” with the government over its “unprecedented assault” on the welfare state. Len McCluskey, the newly elected leader of Unite, says union leaders will be holding a special meeting in January to discuss a “broad strike movement” to stop what he described as the coalition’s “explicitly ideological” programme of cuts. Writing in the Guardian, McCluskey praises the “magnificent student movement” that has seen tens of thousands of young people take to the streets to protest at the government’s plans for post-16 education, saying it has put trade unions“on the spot”. “Their mass protests against the tuition fees increase have refreshed the political parts a hundred debates, conferences and resolutions could not reach,” he said. – The Guardian

White out

Labour spokesmen, such as shadow chancellor Alan Johnson, have been accused of political opportunism because they are asking if the government is doing enough to deal with the snow. Johnson’s critics are missing the point — of course there is opportunism involved. The  Tories know this, and used to do the same themselves during snow, floods etc. There isn’t all that much fun to be had in opposition, but after 13 years of being the party that had to produce spokesmen to go on TV to look out of touch Labour is currently enjoying playing “I blame the government”. There aren’t all that many votes in it when something like the weather is involved (unless there is obvious incompetence, as there was with the SNP’s  transport minister who had to resign). But apply the right kind of pressure — as the street-wise Johnson is — and all kinds of temporary havoc can be created in a government. – Wall Street Journal (more…)

Cameron tells activists to hold back

The Prime Minister called off a planned campaigning push in the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election in order to boost Liberal Democrat chances, this newspaper can reveal. Mr Cameron secretly instructed activists not to undertake a major leafleting drive because of fears the party could do so badly in the by-election next month it could destabilise Mr Clegg. As support appears to drain away from the Lib Dems, two of the party’s prominent backers – Bella Freud, the fashion designer, and Kate Mosse, the author – told The Sunday Telegraph they were no longer supporting it. The embarrassment comes days after Colin Firth, the actor, announced that he was leaving the party. On Saturday a senior Liberal Democrat councillor put the coalition under fresh strain by calling two senior Tory ministers “Laurel and Hardy”. – The Telegraph

The big overnight Old & Sad story is a report from Melissa Kite in the Sunday Telegraph saying that David Cameron personally asked party activists in the seat not to campaign too hard in order to help his coalition partner, the Lib Dems. As can be seen from the general election above the constituency is very much a three-way marginal that was won by Phil Woolas on less than a third of votes cast only 103 ahead of Elwyn Wilkins – the man who was to take the former Labour immigration minister to court. But the Tories were not that far behind and must have been in with a fair chance had they mounted a robust campaign – a move that could have had big consequences for the coalition. Cameron has apparently decided that beating Labour is the key objective and his statements on Friday are just about as far as he can go in suggesting that his party’s supporters should vote tactically. – PoliticalBetting

No more “coalition”

Ed Miliband has banned the shadow cabinet from using the word “coalition” to describe the government because it sounds too moderate and reasonable, and fails to convey what he says is its true “ideological, rightwing agenda”. In a memo to his front-bench team, obtained by the Observer, the Labourleader’s director of policy, Greg Beales, says that from now on they must use the term “Conservative-led government” to describe the alliance of Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. “This is not a partnership and it is not a centre-ground coalition,” the memo says. “To highlight this, we are changing how we talk about the government. It is wrong to talk about their policies as coalition policies when so many are right-wing Conservative ideas.” – The Observer

Lib Dems continue poll decline

LABOUR have kept their lead over the Tories as the Lib Dems slumped to a new low, our exclusive poll shows today. The ComRes/Sunday Mirror survey puts Labour down one point at 39 per cent, ahead of the Tories who are up one point at 37 per cent. Nick Clegg’s Lib Dems also dropped one point to just 11 per cent – their lowest rating since the start of the ComRes poll in 2004. The Lib Dems have now lost more than half of the people who voted for them in May. The findings follow a week of bad news for the Government, which saw the jobless total rise by 35,000 to 2.5m and the cost of basic goods soar in the shops by 4.7pc. But it got even worse for Mr Clegg. Almost half of those quizzed did not believe he was doing a good job as leader after he failed to unite Lib Dem MPs over tuition fees. Just over one in four supporters thought he was doing well. – The Mirror

David leaves the door open

Aside from his constituency work in South Shields and his desire to stay in touch with foreign policy, what will he do with his time? For the merest moment, he looks confused. “Once you take away good dad, good husband, good politician…” Well, what about books and films? What is he reading? “I’m reading an incredibly frightening murder mystery by someone called Longbow or Legbow.” Does he mean The Snowman by the Norwegian writer Jo Nesbø? “Yes! That’s it. And someone gave me Jonathan Franzen’s book, so that’s nice. We downloaded a film the other day. Now, what was it? ProbablyPeppa Pig or something. Ah. I know. It was an episode of Mad Men. Bit out of date. Sorry. But we’re catching up.” There is something slightly forlorn about this wild clutching at cultural straws. My strong feeling is that the drama that began last spring, when Ed Miliband so dramatically entered the race for the Labour leadership, is not over yet. There will be a second act. David, of course, won’t comment. But nor, in spite of my best efforts, can he be persuaded to rule himself out. “I don’t want to think about being an ex-something,” he says. “I’d much rather think about being a future something.” – The Observer

Government tax and benefits cuts dragging people in to poverty

Hundreds of thousands of people will be dragged into poverty by the Government’s tax and benefit reforms, according to research. The respected Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) forecasts an overall rise in poverty among both children and working-age adults over the next three years. Its findings contradict Chancellor George Osborne’s claims that the spending review will not increase child poverty over the next two years. His claims were “totally unacceptable” and “disastrous”, according to campaign groups, who demanded a re-think of the coalition’s cuts programme. – Evening Standard

New forecasts from the Institute for Fiscal Studies show that the government’s claim that child poverty will not increase over the next two years as a result of changes announced in the Spending Review is broadly accurate. However, poverty among both children and working-age adults is likely to increase significantly from 2013/14. The IFS has projected the number of children and working age people that fall below both the absolute poverty line (measured at 60% of real terms median income for 2010/11) and relative poverty line (measured as 60% of the median income of that year). They give forecasts up to 2012/13 and up to 2013/14. – Left Foot Forward

Between 2010–11 and 2013–14 average incomes are forecast to stagnate and both absolute and relative poverty among children and working-age adults are expected to rise, according to projections published today by the Institute for Fiscal Studies. The IFS researchers forecast absolute and relative income poverty amongst children and working-age adults for each year to 2013–14, using a static tax and benefit micro-simulation model combined with official macroeconomic and demographic forecasts, taking into account current government policy. They also forecast poverty under a scenario where the coalition Government simply implemented the plans for the tax and benefit system it inherited from the previous administration. – Liberal Conspiracy (more…)