by Atul Hatwal
Last year, in the aftermath of the general election it looked like Westminster had learnt that the economy and leadership are central to determining the public’s voting intention at the big electoral tests.
Now we have an EU referendum looming and there’s been a bout of collective amnesia.
Yes, I know this is not a general election but the same formula of economy and leadership is relevant for largely the same reasons as last year.
Immigration is the issue that many Brexiteers think will tip the balance their way. But just as Ukip found last year, they’re misreading the polls.
There is a very familiar gap between the number who view immigration as the most important issue facing the country and those who view it as important to their household’s well-being.
At the general election, 51% thought immigration was the key issue facing Britain but only 21% believed it mattered most to their lives.
Unsurprisingly, immigration was not a major factor in the contest.
In the last poll to ask the relevant questions, by YouGov, from last September – following a summer of daily coverage of refugees travelling to Europe – the number citing immigration as the most important national issue was the highest on record at 71%. But the number who thought it most important for their family was 24% – a gap of 47%.
Think about that for a moment.
Even after a summer of non-stop reporting of fleeing refugees entering Europe, lurid stories from the Calais “jungle” and hyperbolic headlines, the proportion thinking that immigration mattered most for their lives rose by just 3% from 21% at the election to 24% at the start of September.
In comparison, in the same poll, the number saying the economy was the most important issue for their household was 40%. That’s 16% ahead of immigration.
In every single poll conducted by YouGov in the five and half years that they’ve been asking these questions, this gap has never been less than 16%.
