by Rob Marchant
“And you call that statesmanship? I call it an emotional spasm.”
Aneurin Bevan to the Labour Party Conference, 1957.
This week has been an extraordinary one, and one for which Nye’s famous line might easily have been written.
A party which still enjoys a majority of 164 in the Commons has, for some reason, collectively decided to lose its mind.
After some dire local election results, it began with a short meeting between the PM and the Health Secretary, followed by the latter’s resignation, and ended with the calling of a by-election, so that a more-popular colleague can return to parliament and challenge for the leadership. A more convoluted script you could not find in The Thick Of It.
Now, if Labour wins that by-election, it may have a route to a new leader. But that route is fraught with unpredictability. There are, as they say, a great number of moving parts.
First, Burnham needs to win in a seat where every one of its eight wards has just been won by Reform, and by a good margin in each case. As Mayor and former MP for nearby Leigh, he has previously enjoyed a good personal vote, yes, but he is betting the entire farm on that fact (for comparison, individual MPs are usually felt to make a difference of plus or minus 3% to the vote garnered by the colour of the rosette). It is as if the turquoise wave of the 7th of May had never happened.









