by Atul Hatwal
By any measure, Labour passed the Oldham West test last night. Almost an 11,000 majority, an increased share of the vote and an increased percentage lead. Job done.
So does this mean Jeremy Corbyn is in fact electorally viable?
Of course not.
Here are three takeaways from the result.
1.Politics is local if you’ve got a local candidate
Jim McMahon was a very good candidate made exceptional because of his local roots.
Often candidates will strain to demonstrate a local connection.
Having spent a couple of years at college in the town several decades earlier, lived nearby for a bit, once stopped at the motorway services – any link is seized upon to claim local authenticity and disguise the reality that the candidate actually works in London, in politics, as a party adviser, union official or lobbyist.
In contrast, Jim McMahon was the real deal.
His name recognition on the doorstep was off the charts. Through his work as leader of the council and daily family life in the town, he personally knew hundreds of voters and thousands knew someone who knew him.
The word back from canvassers was that whatever voters’ thought of Jeremy Corbyn – usually not a lot – Jim McMahon was uniformly well regarded.
Labour’s campaign was distinguished as being a Corbyn-free zone. One appearance at the start and one picture hidden on the back of a leaflet does not tell a tale of local Labour faith in the leader.
This was Jim McMahon’s win.
2.Oldham West and Royton should never have been under threat
At the general election, Labour won Oldham West and Royton with a majority of almost 15,000. Self-evidently it’s one of Labour’s safest seats.
Since May, the Tories have been in turmoil over tax credits, are split from top to bottom over Europe and are in the early stages of a leadership civil war.
That a Labour victory should even have been doubted is illustrative of the disaster which has befallen the party.
If Oldham West and Royton was to be lost in a national poll, on a uniform swing, Labour would be reduced to 60 seats.
