Posts Tagged ‘YouGov’

Wednesday News Review

15/09/2010, 07:16:00 AM

Closest since 2007

Factor in the usual caveats about polling so soon after a change of government, but the latest Sun/YouGov poll is still pretty eyecatching. It has the Tories on 40 percent, Labour on 39 and the Lib Dems on 12 – the smallest gap between the two main parties since the election-that-never-was in October 2007. Here’s a graph of the the two parties’ positions since the beginnning of the general election campaign:

The Spectator

David twice as popular

David Miliband is the choice of Labour voters to be the next leader of the party, according to a ComRes survey for The Independent. He is more than twice as popular as his nearest rival, his younger brother Ed, when Labour supporters are asked to name their preferred candidate; who would make the best leader of the opposition; the best prime minister and have the best chance of leading Labour back to power. The poll, conducted among more than 1,500 people who have voted Labour at least once since 1992, found that David Miliband was also the most likely of the five Labour leadership candidates to win over floating voters and those people who backed Labour in 2005 but switched to the Liberal Democrats or Conservative Party this year. – The Independent


Facebook Twitter Digg Delicious StumbleUpon

Late poll puts the cat among the pigeons

12/09/2010, 01:24:29 PM

Today’s Sunday Times poll has set pigeons among cats and tossed works into spanners. Navigating the Byzantine wiles of the electoral college, You Gov has picked perceived wisdom up by the lapels, given it a good shake, and dumped it in the recycling bin by predicting a wafer thin victory for Ed Miliband.

Although the full figures have not yet been released, the poll shows David Miliband ahead 36% to 32% on 1st preferences, with Ed overhauling him 51% to 49% when 2nd preferences, 3rd preferences and the result of the Doggets Coat & Badge are factored in.

Over at Political Betting, Mike Smithson has a more detailed breakdown of the figures, which indicate Ed M will sneak the ‘Members’ section 52% to 48%,  romp home amongst the ‘Trade Unionists’ 57% to 43%, but fall flat with ‘MPs and MEPs’, losing 44% -56% to David.

The response from the two camps has been predictable. “We are not complacent but confident” – David. “The Party is uniting behind us” – Ed.

Privately, however, there is growing concern amongst MPs and senior party activists that the disparity between Trade Union support for Ed and Parliamentary support for David raises  the spectre of a ‘nightmare scenario’ , in which one of the brothers wins with a mandate from only one of three sections of the college.


Facebook Twitter Digg Delicious StumbleUpon