by Kevin Meagher
Of course some people are asking questions about Ed Miliband’s nascent leadership. This is the Labour party. We love a good moan. In response to a poll in 1997 that showed 93% of voters were satisfied with Tony Blair, professional New Labour irritant, Bob Marshall-Andrews, quipped: “look, there’s seven per cent. We can build on that”.
So there’s nothing new in the anti-leader muttering that is going on. And it is going on. Ed Miliband has huge expectations to meet. Frustrations to assuage. Why isn’t Cameron toast already? Why hasn’t Clegg been destroyed? Why have we not landed more blows over the cuts and the splits?
It’s all still early days. It is unwise to draw definite conclusions after the first five minutes of a football match. Yet commentators do so anyway. Just as they do in politics. Of course, until Ed establishes his own clear, compelling direction, the armchair managers will continue to chirrup. It may be pointless and energy-sapping, but it is not unexpected. Few have the patience for what he is embarking on.
The truth is that Ed Miliband has taken to opposition far better than many of his colleagues. He realises that a five year stretch in opposition is just that: an unfathomable eternity for Labour hacks with political attention deficit disorder. Especially those now hooked on winning elections and running things.
And this period in the wilderness can be made even longer by false starts and poorly judged early exuberance. Pacing really is everything. “A week is a long time in politics” advised Harold Wilson. Ed Miliband knows that he has more than 200 of them till the next general election. So much can happen; proceed cautiously. Don’t leave hostages to fortune. Better to start from first principles and get that right. No point charging around making commitments that are later dropped.
He may have it spot on. But Ed needs to earn the right to take stock and move at a more leisurely pace than many in the party are used to. His mistake is to assume he has the backing for an elongated period of reflection. He does not. Yet.
MPs and members want to be reassured first. They want some early wins. They want the smirk wiped off David Cameron’s well-heeled mush every Wednesday afternoon. They want to hurry Nick Clegg’s mid-life crisis. They want to know that Alex Salmond will be trodden into the ground. They want to know that town halls across England will turn red next May. They want to know that Labour is back in the game.
So far, Ed has not shown clearly enough that Labour is back. His is a leadership in carpet slippers. No one in the real world begrudges a new dad two weeks paternity leave. But this is politics. Where two weeks off so early on in the job amounts to dereliction of duty. Not fair, but that’s just the way it is. He needs to kick off the slippers, heave on a pair of hob-nailed boots and get out there and splinter some shins.
In an elegant way, you understand. Appear to play the ball, not the man. He is not a basher. He is not a shouter. He is, however, a highly experienced insider who knows that government is a messy, disjointed business. And that was during the days of New Labour top-downery.
The mind doth truly boggle at how the country is being governed when the cabinet minister responsible for raising university tuition fees is blocked from publicly supporting his own policy because his leader lacks the “nerve” to back it. Ed should be able to gut government decisions like these and fling the messy entrails across the dispatch box each Wednesday. There will be plenty of old fishheads to choose from.
That is how he will best David “seat-of-my-pants” Cameron. Detail: well researched and simply packaged. From someone who knows.
Ed’s main problem at the moment is not strategy; it is political ringcraft. The ability to jab and move effectively. The two setbacks that triggered the current muttering about his abilities were a poor Today interview and a nightmare of a time during Wednesday’s prime minister’s questions. These are the types of slots that opposition leaders need to exploit. To say that this week’s PMQs was not a great Parliamentary occasion for him is like saying that David Cameron’s 2018 world cup failure was a close run thing.
But if he can learn, he can improve.
For a few rose-tinted irreconcilables, he is simply the wrong Ed or the wrong Miliband. But if any of his rivals were truly streets ahead of him, they would be doing his job right now. The vast majority of party members and MPs will continue to get behind him and give him a fair crack of the whip. So will the voters, given the chance.
He should not be put off. His unenviable task in returning Labour to office is a mixture of hard slog, fluke, and decent positioning. We earn the right to be heard once the government of the day has lost it. There is no great masterplan to unfurl. Tony Blair and Harold Wilson, the two best insurgent Labour leaders, both took over mid-parliament. The rhythms of a full term in opposition are completely different. The first two years are all about not mucking up. Avoiding the temptation to rush headlong into political cul-de-sacs. Struggling to build momentum and a coherent narrative.
The lazy assumption some in the party had in May that the Tory-Lib Dem government would implode within six months has proved illusory. No one knows quite where we will be in five years time. One thing is clear: David Cameron will still be prime minister.
Sure, the tuition fees issue is messy. But the government will get through it. Cameron is showing that he is temperamentally suited to living with such ambiguities. He is a man of the times. The messy, public compromises of coalition government are anathema to New Labour control freaks. But Cameron is making a decent go of it, politically speaking. The public will give this government the benefit of the doubt for a good while longer.
Ed, too, can show that he is a man of the times. Agree where it is sensible. Attack when it is warranted. Be prepared to innovate. Field test tactics until they work. Use talent across the party. Make few hard commitments (as he did during the Labour leadership contest). He will be given time and space once nerves stop jangling and trust is established with the party. He just needs to deliver a few heads on sticks in the short term.
Ed Miliband was not everyone’s cup of tea. The circumstances of his election as Labour’s twentieth leader will doubtless linger. But no one can deny that his leadership campaign showed an intuitive brilliance for understanding the centre of gravity within the party. His slightly harder task is to show that he can also feel the pulse of the British people. He deserves a decent chance to show us he can.
Kevin Meagher is a campaign consultant and a former adviser to Labour ministers.
Tags: Ed Miliband, Kevin Meagher
An awful lot of errors from him! I do not want to hear that he feels like marching with protesting students. I want a clear message regarding the squeezed middle. His language on tuition fees is far too complex – I do not want an intellectual assessment. I am not at all impressed and it is quite wrong to blame the mischievous media as Yvette did yesterday.(A tremendous performance from her – why is she not the Shadow Chancellor?) We can form our own judgements.
Of course the polls will support Labour as the coalition makes the necessary cuts. There will also be huge gains in Council seats. A false optimism will prevail. Sadly, I do not think Ed has the qualities I look for in a PM. Being acceptable to ones party is all well and good but one has to be acceptable to the country. He won the leadership in my opinion by appealing to whatever audience he spoke to. He lurched to the left for the union vote, the anti war faction on Iraq etc etc. His actions todate are more what I would expect from a student leader than a potential PM. Sorry….
“But no one can deny that his leadership campaign showed an intuitive brilliance for understanding the centre of gravity within the party”.
Jane is right. Ed Miliband danced to the tune of whichever audience he was addressing. That’s exactly why I did not vote for him. I am no Blairite but I preferred David’s consistency and willingness to actually stand by what he believed.
The country is not the party and that is Ed Miliband’s huge and inevitable, why-he-will-never-be-Prime-Minister – problem.
Jane – I totally agree . Ed Miliband wrong job – Alan Johnson wrong job . Unless labour gets a grip and makes some sense of being in opposition and opposes – there is plenty to oppose – we will lose support from new members who joined after the coalition was formed .
@Kevin
Yeh, I think I’m mostly in agreement. The trouble is that wiping the smirk of Cameron’s face is rather a hard thing to do as it seems to be tattooed on. Both times that Ed has lost PMQs is when the subject is the economy, the history of the financial crisis has been re-written to turn it from the total failure of laissez-faire capitalism to a government spending crisis; 10 years of economic growth and low inflation has been turned into 10 years of overspending. This narrative must be tackled head on.
@Jane
“An awful lot of errors from him!”
A couple of bad PMQs and a dodgy interview.
“I do not want to hear that he feels like marching with protesting students.”
Why not? Tens of thousands of students are protesting and campaigning not for themselves but for the kids a couple of years behind them. And students have a right to feel very, very angry they’ve been the victim of the biggest electoral lie perpetuated by a political party in history.
“I want a clear message regarding the squeezed middle.”
What do you want to know about them?
“His language on tuition fees is far too complex – I do not want an intellectual assessment.”
No it isn’t, his language is very simple – the coalitions plans for fees are wrong.
“I am not at all impressed”
Well, sorry to hear that but if you were expecting whoever won the leadership election to suddenly go 20 points up in the polls then you’re deluded.
“it is quite wrong to blame the mischievous media as Yvette did yesterday”
No, she was quite right too. The right wing press and establishment are attempting to drown Eds leadership at birth because he is a challenge to their extremely right wing world view. They’re wedded to the idea that
“A tremendous performance from her – why is she not the Shadow Chancellor?”
Dunno, I think she’d have made a better one than Johnson.
“Sadly, I do not think Ed has the qualities I look for in a PM.”
I’m sure Ed will resign immediately on hearing this. Pray tell us what are these qualities you look for?
“Being acceptable to ones party is all well and good but one has to be acceptable to the country.”
Ed approval ratings are higher now than Cameron’s at the same point in his leadership. But mainly the country don’t really know and aren’t really bothered with Labour at the moment, it’ll take time before people start listening again. And Ed can’t just come out with a whole new gospel of Labour thought, before that he and the party need to show some humility and talk to ordinary voters about what they think.
“He won the leadership in my opinion by appealing to whatever audience he spoke to.”
No he didn’t, he was totally consistent in his positions throughout the entire leadership campaign and still is.
“He lurched to the left for the union vote”
Utter rubbish.
“the anti war faction on Iraq”
You mean there are Labour party members who don’t think the Iraq war was a profound mistake? I’ve never met any. Iraq was a disgrace and a disaster that should never have happened and Ed was right to denounce it.
“His actions todate are more what I would expect from a student leader than a potential PM.”
Yawn.
“Sorry….”
Have you ever actually voted Labour?
And you, Chris, are exactly why Ed Miliband is doing so badly. Rather than actually address people’s concerns you choose to attack the person instead. Prior to the weekend, I was beginning to feel sorry for the continuous assault on Ed Miliband performance as leader of the opposition (even though I believed much of it was deserved) but if his team is as arrogant as you are the sooner he is replaced as leader the better.
Ed is doing much, much better than his predecessor, and he has the authority to do the job. Brown remember, did not even face and election in the party, let alone t
Chris – to confirm I have voted for the labour party on each occasion over the past 46 years. I may not next time around – tribalism is not as strong as it once was. I will be voting for AV as I love coalition government. My first choice will probably be the Lib Dems. I feel they need support as the party I have supported for all these years seek to drive a wedge in the Lib Dem ranks rather than provide a coherent policy on how to manage the deficit. I have read the review and the draft document unlike many students. I also agree with the views expressed by Alan Johnson and Nick Clegg that a graduate tax would mean that students would be paying off a similar amount over a silimar period. A reminder too that Labour introduced tripling of fees and set up the Browne enquiry which is the basis of the government’s policy. Ed Miliband is appealing to the youth vote. I feel uncomfortable with the use of words like cultural vandalism – hence I used the term essay rather than statement.
Yes there are many labour party members who supported the Iraq war. Strange that you have never met any – I know lots including myself. My husband – also a lifelong Labour Supporter is a retired Military Officer. I have always accepted that others did not but did not criticise them for holding an alternate view. You seek to do so – somehow your opinions matter more than mine? Ed Miliband sought the anti war vote in his leadership bid. Strange that he had many opportunities whilst in government to distance himself from the decision reached? Many of his back bench colleagues mentioned a similar criticism. He may not have been an MP but I do not recall him commenting on the issue at all.
People who aspire to become PM do not state in an interview that they wanted to march with demonstrators. To add insult he came up with a lame excuse why he did not. Sorry – not done. I recall him stating that he would march with TU activists during the leadership campaign too. David Miliband was the only principled contender during that particular debate as he stated he would not. I interpret that too as saying all the things the audience wanted to hear.
To be in government again, the party has to appeal to a wide audience. You must forgive me at present for considering that he is not doing so. Indeed I am in despair at opposition for opposition sake. However, I am delighted that you are pleased with his performance so he is obviously targetting your age group. Just as he appealed to those whose votes mattered in the leadership election. Me – he has left alienated.
I am surprised by some of the comments here attacking Ed for speaking his mind. Let us keep this in perspective. First, Ed is doing infinitely better than his predecessor, and has the authority of having won a party leadership election which is more than Gordon Brown ever did – he was never even subjected to a leadership contest despite being PM for three years.
After the failings of Brown, in particular, Ed will need to re-establish trust with the electorate. He must have the courage to say things he believes in and that surely means recognising the errors of Iraq – for this did irreparable damage to our party. There are other things that he needed to say also. For example, the obscenity of excessive executive pay in the last decade – again something condoned by Brown and Blair but – which caused much unease in the country – which is why Cameron set up a commission under the chairmanship of Will Hutton. You don’t have to be a socialist or even a social democrat to think that current executive pay levels are obscene – even George Osborne has condemned it. The problem as I see it is that there are some in the party who are afraid to condemn this behaviour, for fear of being anti-business. If this is the case, I would ask you what on earth is a party which supposedly puts fairness and justice at the heart of its raison-detre for anymore?
Can we please get a little bit real.
It is so patently obvious I can’t believe it even needs saying, never mind repeating, that Labour are not going to have another leadership contest before the next election.
We haven’t got the resources, or the stomach for it.
It is even more patently obvious that we aren’t going to have another coronation – do I have do even begin to explain why? I do hope not.
I get that not everyone is as enthusiastic about Ed M as I am. But I also know that if a candidate I hadn’t been backing had won, I would be behind their leadership 100%.
So while there is plenty of room for constructive advice, the kind of comments seen here and elsewhere help only the Tories. Now that may be your aim. Jane has at least had the politeness to admit it through her love for the Lib Dems and coalition government.
But if people want the Labour Party to win again and for us to be able to implement policies that will ameliorate the damage being done to the most vulnerable in society (and if you think that’s partisan or as Peter Watt would have it arrogant then I urge you to read the Government’s own impact assessments on housing benefit and local housing allowance which are hair-raising).
I don’t want to deny any other member of the Party a voice. But I would ask that you use your discomfort constructively, and remember who and what we should be fighting.
Jane, if you love coalition government then there is absolutely nothing Ed Miliband can offer you.
The vast majority of Labour’s potential voters in 2015 will be absolutely against the coalition. He cannot woo them with warm words for their work or the institution.
And there are many more people who didn’t vote Labour in 2010 who will do to get the coalition out than there are who did but will vote for the Lib Dems next time to keep the coalition going. He has to say he’s aiming for a majority, even if he ends up topping the poll but having to negotiate another coalition.
You’re going to be ignored. Not because you’re entirely wrong – coalition has some very real advantages – but because it would be political suicide to cater to your viewpoint. Sorry, that’s how it goes. Any leader of the Labour Party who doesn’t acknowledge that is doomed to failure.
@Londoner
“And you, Chris, are exactly why Ed Miliband is doing so badly.”
I didn’t know I had so much influence, I’ve never met him or spoken to him yet I’m personally responsible. Who’d have thought idly tapping out a few snotty comments could have such an affect.
“Rather than actually address people’s concerns you choose to attack the person instead.”
I didn’t attack the person, I attacked their concerns.
“Prior to the weekend, I was beginning to feel sorry for the continuous assault on Ed Miliband performance as leader of the opposition (even though I believed much of it was deserved) but if his team is as arrogant as you are the sooner he is replaced as leader the better.”
LOL, I’m not a part of his or anybody else’s “team”.
@Jane
“to confirm I have voted for the labour party on each occasion over the past 46 years.”
Excellent.
“I will be voting for AV as I love coalition government. My first choice will probably be the Lib Dems.”
Ermmmm….honesty isn’t a quality you look for in a perspective PM then?
“I feel they need support as the party I have supported for all these years seek to drive a wedge in the Lib Dem ranks rather than provide a coherent policy on how to manage the deficit.”
What? Labour have a perfectly coherent policy on the deficit and it is a far more consistent than the libdem policy. And of course we should be trying to open up cracks in the libdems, they’ve been eating into our support since 2003. We lost plenty of seats where the libdem vote outnumbered the margin by which we lost to the tories.
“I have read the review and the draft document unlike many students.”
You do a good line in condescension.
“I also agree with the views expressed by Alan Johnson and Nick Clegg that a graduate tax would mean that students would be paying off a similar amount over a silimar period.”
Yeh, the current system and proposed system is a graduate poll tax in all but name. The only difference being on whose balance sheet the debt is recorded by going down the fees route we load the debt on to the student. A great many young people and their parents, especially poor ones, very much dislike the idea of saddling themselves with so much debt so young. The current system isn’t too bad as the fees are only £3k pa and the interest rate is equal to RPI. However, the proposed system will fiddle with the interest rate to try and make it progressive by charging RPI + <= 3% on graduates earning over £21k. Not only does this significantly complicate the system with tapering, variable interest rates but it will allow very high earners to pay significantly less than middle income earners unless significant penalty clauses are included in the bill but we don't know what is in the bill because this government is so arrogant it is having a vote before releasing a white paper. The proposed system is so wrong that it is actually factored in that a majority of graduates will never actually pay all the debt back before the 30 year time limit.
It would be far easily, simpler and fairer just to introduce a straight graduate tax adding a few pence on income tax and progressively increasing the amount you pay with inline with income tax bands. Payable for 25 years, etc.
"A reminder too that Labour introduced tripling of fees."
Yeh, they did and it was your hero Tony Blair that did it.
"Ed Miliband is appealing to the youth vote."
Every progressive party in western democracy has to appeal to the youth vote as sadly many people become embittered and regressive with age. Also, with the massive number of young people going into HE they are too many to ignore.
"I feel uncomfortable with the use of words like cultural vandalism"
Well, what else is it? Cutting 80% of the university teaching budget, removing all state funding from the arts, humanities and social sciences. The LSE will be left with *zero* teaching grant!!!
"Yes there are many labour party members who supported the Iraq war."
They may have supported it at the time but do they still think it was the right thing to do?
"I have always accepted that others did not but did not criticise them for holding an alternate view. You seek to do so – somehow your opinions matter more than mine?"
Ermmmm you're the one criticising Ed for voicing an anti-war opinion. And how does your opinion on Iraq sit with your support for the libdems?
"Strange that he had many opportunities whilst in government to distance himself from the decision reached?"
No he didn't, he wasn't in government or parliament or even the country in 2003.
"He may not have been an MP but I do not recall him commenting on the issue at all."
Why would you recall him commenting on the issue? He wasn't exactly well known in 2003, he was in American lecturing at Harvard.
"People who aspire to become PM do not state in an interview that they wanted to march with demonstrators."
How very conservative.
"To be in government again, the party has to appeal to a wide audience. You must forgive me at present for considering that he is not doing so."
No, he isn't appealing to you. I don't really think you have your finger on the political pulse of a wide audience.
"Indeed I am in despair at opposition for opposition sake."
That is exactly what he isn't doing. He isn't coming out and opposing everything, he is opposing on tuition fees because it is a bad policy in his opinion and he was elected as leader with a mandate to oppose tuition fees – unlike Nick Clegg he is sticking to his pre-election promises.
"Just as he appealed to those whose votes mattered in the leadership election."
Every bodies vote mattered in the leadership election. Ed appealed to 30,000 more voters than David that is what mattered.
"Me – he has left alienated."
Well, I'm truly sorry that such a long time supporter and member of the party is alienated by Ed's leadership. But I don't think you've really given him a fair hearing and to say he doesn't have the qualities you look for in a PM is really jumping the gun.
“LOL, I’m not a part of his or anybody else’s “team”.
It doesn’t matter whether you are. My point was that if Ed Miliband’s “people” have the same attitude as supporters like you they are not going to gain the support they need anytime soon…
@Londoner
So, what? His supporters and “people” are basically supposed to go around apologising for his victory? Agree with critics who state he is unprincipled? And agree with commentators who have basically written him off already? Yeh, that will be a real winning strategy…