Uncut predictions for 2017: We are heading for train-wreck Brexit

Nigel Farage is pushing for hard Brexit – a rapid severing of all ties between the UK and the EU. George Osborne prefers a soft Brexit – moving at a slower pace to minimise the risk of economic disruption, quite likely entailing an acceptance of some form of ongoing free movement of people between the UK and the EU. Philip Hammond, the man carrying the can for Farage’s push for a referendum and Osborne’s failure to persuade enough to vote Remain in it, is displaying signs of fearing train-wreck Brexit. Under this scenario, we fail to agree terms for the UK’s exit from the EU in the two-year window afforded by Article 50. Neither hard nor soft; just in limbo.

Given that this would only require one of the 28 EU member states to black ball the terms offered to the UK, privileging the capricious whims of domestic politics over economic calm and fidelity to perfidious Albion, the train wreck is not hard to spot. It is generally assumed, though, that the worst that could then happen is that the UK trades on WTO terms with the EU states, meaning that economically damaging tariffs would be paid on goods and services moving from the UK to the continent. It could, however, be worse than that. The UK is only a member of the WTO via EU membership and would, therefore, need to reapply to join the WTO; an application that could be blocked by any WTO member, including Russia, which might make mischief.

Some form of transition arrangements between the UK and EU would help avert this train wreck, which is why Hammond is supposedly sensibly keen on them.

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8 Responses to “Uncut predictions for 2017: We are heading for train-wreck Brexit”

  1. Alf says:

    This is no time for Tory-liteness. We need a proper socialist Brexit. The Blair cultists must get behind Jeremy and stop messing about.

  2. John P Reid says:

    Following from Jon Cruddas recommending Adrian Pabst ,controversial book ,on the views of trade union friendly working class

    He’s nice praised this article
    , whether he doesn’t are he will lose his seat, due to labour’s current unpopularity or, he’s seen the light of, what the blue collar working clas think, hallelujah

  3. Delta says:

    @John P Reid

    Lol thought you might be posing a real threat then.
    As usual with anything Cruddas or Cruddas related it is abstract, vague nonsense – Cruddas is more concerned with trying to appear to be an academic, throwing out spurious theories Right, Left and Centre without anything worthwhile to utilise.
    I remember well his teaming up with James Purnell who wrote the most inconsistent drivel on the mechanics of beliefs systems (he did not include a single solitary value lol).

    Stupid is as stupid does and the march for a Conservative victory in 2020 continues.

    Try again – try harder.

  4. paul barker says:

    Voters will understand & (mostly) respect Parties that campaign for or against Brexit but not Parties like Labour that faff about in the middle, trying to please both sides.

  5. john P reid says:

    delta ,name some values then

  6. Ydoethur says:

    Actually the U.K. (like every EU country and indeed every sovereign state) is a full member of the WTO, as is the EU separately. I have seen the claim to the contrary oftenbut I have never seen any actual evidence as opposed to ill-informed speculation and I am sorry to say wishful thinking to support it.

  7. J. Holt says:

    I don’t believe there’s any such thing as Brexit limbo – if we fail to agree terms within 2 years we will undergo a hard Brexit by default, i.e. trade under WTO. I don’t believe the government can reach an agreement within 2 years, but it might be able to agree a transitional arrangement giving it time to conclude a proper deal; the latter scenario requires that the R27 want to play ball, I can’t say I’ve seen much evidence of that.

    Hard Brexit is the default option under A50, unless we agree to free movement it is the option the EU will prefer. There aren’t going to be any sweetheart deals, this is a divorce settlement and at least one party has a grudge against the other – it is intent on humiliation.

  8. Delta says:

    @john P reid

    Lol No I do not have to…though I did back in the day.

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