by Kevin Meagher
I can only assume the plan was for Morgan McSweeney to stay in his role until the morning after the disastrous May elections, acting as a human flak jacket for the Prime Minister.
Or perhaps until the loss of the Gorton and Denton by-election (which I rather think Labour should hold). But the departure earlier today of Keir Starmer’s most senior and trusted aide over the Peter Mandelson imbroglio serves to underscore the sheer precariousness of the Prime Minister’s position.
Number Ten is on fire and Keir Starmer’s position is terminal. But here’s the thing – so are the fortunes of every PM. There is a beginning, middle and end for every career. And if to govern is to choose it is also to become unpopular for those choices. His critics would say Starmer’s tenure is in the final act, but what if it isn’t?
What if rather than chucking him out, panicking Labour MPs got a grip of themselves and thought strategically, rather than tactically for once – allowing the prime minister to make the necessary reforms to his Downing Street operation and to get on with it. For a while at least.
Labour still has two abiding and substantial advantages. The first is time. We are only a third of the way through this parliament with no need for a general election until summer 2029. Things as the New Labour anthem used to have it, can only get better.
The second is that Labour has an insanely large majority and could afford to lose a by-election a month for the rest of this parliament without having any material effect on the government’s sustainability. The May elections in Scotland and Wales will be grim, but subsequent rounds of local elections in 2027 and 2028 are less important.
None of which is to avoid the essential truth: There is no one suitable to replace Keir Starmer right now. His would-be replacements lack the stature, experience or star quality to make a better job of it. Despite the Prime Minister’s limitations as a communicator, he is still better at it than nearly anyone else in his cabinet.
And any successor inherits the same dreadful hand that Starmer has – and it is not clear from any of the names bandied about how they would play them any differently. In all probability they would find themselves in the same situation within 18 months.
While his personal popularity ratings might sit at the bottom of the Mariana Trench, Keir Starmer still has a vital role to play. His service is to carry the weight of the government’s failings. To act as a ‘bad bank’ accumulating its debts. To stay on for another couples of years, at which point the cabinet should have better replacement options and the economy should have sufficiently recovered to change the government’s fortunes.
During this period, Starmer should have two overriding aims: The first is to steer Britain through the cost-of-living crisis, grow the economy and get taxes down. The second is to keep Europe in lockstep over the Russian threat, while keeping the US engaged in the region. His unflashy diplomacy being a real strength in this regard.
Keir Starmer’s service to his country and his party is to take more blows. To soak up the criticism. To allow the government to grow a cadre of serious replacement options. To allow Labour to switch gears at the right moment, rather than panicking over short-term unpopularity. To endure until winter 2027 or spring 2028, thus allowing Labour to reinvent itself and win a second term in office.
What is now abundantly clear is that he will not be Labour leader at the next general election. At 63, he is already the fifth-oldest PM of 17 holders of the office since the Second World War. Labour only has one shot at changing leader and it would be foolish to waste that advantage at this point. It might well be true that Keir Starmer is holed below the waterline, but this is no time to scuttle him.
Kevin Meagher is the associate editor of Labour Uncut
Tags: Angela Rayner, Keir Starmer, Kevin Meagher, Labour leadership, Morgan McSweeney
