by Paul Richards

THERE’S Labour jubilation at the news that the Liberal Democrats have slumped to single figures in the latest opinion polls. Their current nine per cent standing would give them just 11 seats in the Commons – a return to the old jokes about taxicabs and telephone boxes. It reflects the proper sense of outrage at the behaviour of Nick Clegg and his colleagues – ditching any policy necessary to stay in the government, and revelling in the perks and trappings. It reflects too Cameron’s Saddam-like use of the Lib Dems as human shields (‘after you, Danny…’), fronting up every piece of Tory thuggery and vandalism. The unknown perpetrator of what the Wandsworth Guardian calls a ‘campaign of hate’ against the Putney offices of the Liberal Democrats, daubing ‘whores’, ‘fakes’ and latterly ‘Tory Fags’ (no sniggering at the back) on their windows, speaks for tens of thousands of people who voted Lib Dem.

All those students, or well-meaning people in the voluntary sector, or teachers, who voted for the Liberal Democrats have watched their cherished policies torn into little pieces by Huhne, Clegg, Cable, Alexander and the rest. People in independent-minded Lewes, who believed they were voting for a radical maverick, ended up with a junior minister in a government prosecuting a war in Afghanistan, cutting local voluntary groups, and putting rail fares up. Yes, even Norman Baker, the man who believes Dr Kelly was murdered, has swapped his high horse for a ministerial car.

We tried to warn them of course. There are enough people with direct experience of the Liberal Democrats in local government to know that they are lying, back-stabbing, gutless, unprincipled charlatans, prepared to jump on any bandwagon, pander to any prejudice, promise the moon on a stick, and make a pact with Satan to win council seats. We know that Focus is full of distortions and lies, from the distorted bar charts to the fake endorsements. We tried to tell people that the Lib Dems would do a deal with the Tories if it put them into government. At least next time, our warnings will be backed with cold hard evidence.

So why shouldn’t we be popping champagne corks at the latest polls: Labour neck and neck with the Tories, and the Liberals in single figures?

The fact is that so much can happen between now and the next election that these polls are irrelevant. Worse, they give people false hope. They create the illusion that somehow Lib Dem ministers will be punished at the polls by some coalition of brassed-off students, anti-war campaigners and Guardian readers who hoped the ‘liberal moment’ meant something other than Hayekian economics. By 2015, all current students will have graduated. British involvement in Afghanistan will have ended. The deficit will have been paid down (at who-knows-what social cost), and the Tory chancellor will have some space for tax cuts. We may or may not have the alternative vote. Lord alone knows what will have happened inside the Labour Party by then. The political situation will look very different in five years’ time.

You can’t underestimate the Liberal Democrats’ capacity for survival. Lib Dem parliamentary candidates in 2015 won’t have to campaign on the government’s record. Neither will Lib Dem Ministers and MPs. Each will tell lies to the voters about what they agreed with and what they didn’t. Like the defendants at Nuremberg, they will say they were just following orders. They will claim credit for things they stopped the Tories doing. They will repeat the oldest lie of all: there is no alternative.

It’s the okey-cokey electoral strategy – Lib Dem candidates will be part of the government, and opposed to it, at the same time. If we hope that voters pursue vengeance and justice at the next election, rather than self-interest, we will be in opposition for another five years. To win council seats, and win new party members, from the Liberal Democrats is gratifying and welcome. But it is not the same as winning the argument, winning back the five million we lost since 1997, or winning the general election.

My advice is to keep that bottle of Pol Roger in the fridge a little longer. Save it for some other cause for Labour celebration in the not-too-distant future, if you know what I mean.

Paul Richards’s latest book Labour’s Revival is out now.

Tags: David Cameron, Liberal Democrats, local government, Nick Clegg, opinion polls

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