MPs to vote on Libya

Audience or inquisition? Echo chamber or debating chamber? Monday’s debate on the crisis in Libya is a chance for the Commons to show that politicians learned hard lessons from Iraq and Afghanistan. We are “at war”, but this isn’t a moment of national peril that obliges MPs to button their lips and patriotically applaud the prime minister. Far from it. If we have learned one thing from the Balkans, Iraq and Afghanistan, it is that you cannot impose democracy by bombing. A second lesson is that getting into a conflict is a lot easier than getting out. I would be much happier if the media and political cacophony about Libya was less about boys’ toys – fighter aircraft and different missile systems – and more about Libya’s unusual history and the hideously difficult political choices ahead. If the air strikes have cowed Muammar Gaddafi’s forces enough to keep them from invading Benghazi and causing a further bloodbath there, then that is good news. David Cameron and the other leaders are to be applauded for that. As a senior Labour MP put it to me on Sunday, when I asked him about the danger of us being drawn into a long stalemate, “a stalemate’s better than a slaughter”. – Comment is free

Now that we know what we know about Iraq I vowed I’d never take a prime minister on trust again. Yet this is what I’m going to have to do tomorrow. My vote will be with Sarkozy and Cameron – and the united nations. I have huge reservations. I have little choice. I have to believe that they’ll be true to their words: there won’t be a ground war. There won’t be an occupation. There has to be a plan, right? Parliament will be consulted regularly. Cameron assured the House that the arab league states want this. I have to believe him. And given that allied forces are already shooting out tanks, airfields and strategic targets, a vote against military intervention on Monday only undermines our country’s political strength on the world stage. – Uncut

Budget 2011

George Orborne, the chancellor, has promised not to announce any new tax increases or spending cuts in this week’s Budget. The Chancellor said he had already “asked what is required” to turn the economy around. He would now seek to “move on” and focus on securing economic recovery. The promise will come as a relief to workers who already face increases in National Insurance next month and reductions in the higher-rate tax allowance, following the sharp rise in Vat at the beginning of the year. These rises will still go ahead but the Budget overall will not raise any extra money. Mr Osborne is hoping to promote this week’s statement as a “budget for growth” amid mounting concern over the fragility of Britain’s economic recovery. In an interview yesterday, the Chancellor said: “Having undertaken the rescue mission last year, I don’t have to come back and ask for more this year. “So I can say in the Budget this week I am not going to be asking for more tax increases or more spending cuts. We have asked what is required of the British people in last year’s Budget and that enables us in this year’s Budget to move on to putting in place the policies that will help Britain compete, help Britain create jobs and growth in the future.” – the Telegraph

There will still be something Gladstonian about the budget on Wednesday because Osborne is determined to stick to a path of fiscal rectitude that would have pleased the Grand Old Man of British politics. Sure, there will be a shift of emphasis, with Osborne saying that the “rescue” phase is over and it is now time for “recovery” and “reform” but the principles of the government’s approach will be the same. Despite the feeble state of the economy, the chancellor will reiterate his determination to eradicate the structural part of Britain’s budget deficit by the end of the current parliament. This remains the same gamble it was when Osborne first sketched out his plans the weeks following the formation of the coalition government last spring. Perhaps even more of a gamble, since back then the economy was showing signs of bouncing back from its deepest and longest post-war recession and now it is back in the doldrums. But anybody expecting Osborne to come up with a Plan B on Wednesday, the demand made of him by the shadow chancellor, Ed Balls, will be disappointed. Come what may, the government will stick to its chosen budgetary course. – the Guardian

NHS reforms “Trojan horse”

David Cameron has been warned by one of his own MPs that he is in danger of creating a “Trojan horse” that could destroy the NHS from within. Dr Sarah Wollaston, MP for Totnes in Devon, has issued a scathing reply to the Prime Minister’s boast, made in the Commons last week, that “we are not reorganising the bureaucracy of the NHS. We are abolishing the bureaucracy of the NHS”. Dr Wollaston, who worked as a GP for 18 years, forecast that a more likely set of events is that the NHS will pay out huge sums in redundancy to bureaucrats whose jobs have disappeared, only to re-employ them when when they find that they cannot get by without managers… Dr Wollaston said that doctors should not have the final decision on which patients receive treatment without an input from patients and “the wider clinical community”, and that GP consortia will need professional managers. – the Independent

Lib Dems to table amendments to health bill

Far reaching changes to the coalition health reforms are being drawn up by the Liberal Democrats, it emerged yesterday. The proposals to be circulated among senior Liberal Democrat health experts are designed to turn the motions passed at the party’s spring conference a week ago into detailed amendments to the health and social care bill before it reaches its report stage. Nick Clegg has signalled that he will support the changes in principle, and is among many cabinet ministers who recognise that the reforms need recasting if they are to survive. Those drawing up the amendments, including the former MP Evan Harris, are trying to ensure the proposals are in line with the coalition agreement. They are likely to focus on areas such as ensuring that GP commissioning boards have a duty to prevent cherry-picking by the private sector, and that the boards contain locally-elected councillors or are scrutinised by councils. They would also look at the structure, aims and membership of the proposed economic regulator, Monitor. – the Guardian

Action continues in Libya

George Osborne this morning refused to rule out putting ground troops in Libya. The Chancellor told the Andrew Marr show that the UK are “not considering ground forces at the moment” and were committed to enforcing the UN resolution. Britain’s armed forces and their international partners last night attacked “key military installations” in Libya in a co-ordinated strike, Liam Fox said in a statement. French, American and British forces went into action after a UN resolution backed a no-fly zone over the country to protect civilians. – Politics Home

Balls: Budget plans damp squib

The Government has boasted of a “big bang” Budget plan for growth. But what we have seen so far – tinkering with planning laws, reheating failed policies like enterprise zones and rowing back on workers’ rights – looks like a damp squib. We need to rebuild the strength and competitiveness of our banking and financial sector, but on the basis of business models that reward investment and sustainable growth, not short-term risk-taking. We need a modern industrial policy that supports incentives for technological, green and scientific innovation to flourish, starting with boosting R&D tax credits for small companies. And with too many employers ducking the need to invest in skills, we must ensure every company takes their responsibilities seriously and every employee gets the chance. I don’t claim Labour has all the answers right now – but it is worrying that Mr Osborne shows no sign of even understanding the questions. – Ed Balls, the Independent

Lansley hides NHS poll

Ministers have been accused of “burying good news” about the NHSbecause it will undermine their case for sweeping reforms, after it emerged that they are withholding unpublished polling data that shows record levels of satisfaction with healthcare. The Observer has learned that the polling organisation Ipsos MORI submitted the results last autumn to the Department of Health for inclusion in a government survey of public perceptions of the NHS. The data, commissioned by the department, shows that more members of the public than ever believe the NHS is doing a good job – a finding contrary to health secretary Andrew Lansley‘s insistence that it is falling short and needs urgent change. The department has had the findings for six months, but has yet to make them public – the most recent information on its website relates to 2007. The decision to “sit on” the positive information has fuelled a row over the way in which the government is rooting out negative statistics about the NHS to justify reforms. Under the plans – rejected by the Liberal Democrats at their spring conference last weekend and opposed by a small band of Tory MPs, as well as by the Labour party – GPs will be handed control of £80bn of the NHS budget, tiers of management will be swept away and the private sector will play a greater role. – the Observer

Cameron’s NHS plans are dangerous, says Tory MP

Is there something of the Trojan Horse about the Health and Social Care Bill? No top down reorganisation of the NHS promised on the outside but perhaps the greatest upheaval in the organisation’s history inside. At Prime Ministers Questions last week David Cameron said: ‘We are not reorganising the bureaucracy of the NHS, we are abolishing the bureaucracy of the NHS.’ That is part of the problem. It is one thing to rapidly dismantle the entire middle layer of NHS management but it is completely unrealistic to assume that this vast organisation can be managed by a commissioning board in London with nothing in between it and several hundred inexperienced commissioning consortia. In reality the reforms manage to be both ‘top-down’ and ‘bottom up’ but we could end up with the worst of both worlds. Stripping out primary care trusts (PCTs) and strategic health authorities is as top down as it comes. But at a recent hearing of the Health Select Committee we heard of the confusion that still exists about their replacement. – Dr Sarah Woolaston, the Telegraph

Cameron praised for Libya action

They talked glowingly of Mr Cameron’s “breathtaking courage,” and his “superb leadership.” Even those who admitted they had doubted the Prime Minister were forced to admit he had brought off a “remarkable diplomatic success”. In the eyes of some, Mr Cameron has come a long way in fewer than three weeks – from naïve novice to bold statesman. The Prime Minister took a few days to consider his options on his return from a trip to the Middle East late last month, but soon backed President Nicolas Sarkozy’s early call for a no-fly zone in Libya. He probably wished he had not as the call was waved away by serious international politicians. Mr Cameron was mocked for speaking out with no less a figure than Robert Gates, the United States defence secretary, condemning the “loose talk”. But as he travels to Paris this morning for a meeting of the European Union and Arab League, the Prime Minister has a right to feel vindicated. In No 10 there is barely-concealed delight at how the cards fell his way in spectacular fashion. – the Telegraph

If it wasn’t David Cameron‘s finest hour, it will be a miracle if he ever gets a finer. Since when did any prime minister stand up in the house and find himself sloshed with praise from every side? Even the sceptics were turned into true believers, for the moment. Tories who have been grumbling about the government’s failures were lined up to salute. The declaration of military action is by now a rite of passage for prime ministers. The prime minister must look grim, yet determined on victory. Next to him on the bench must be his closest allies – in this case Nick Clegg and William Hague – who must appear sorrowful, fearful, but equally determined. (Clegg looked particularly distraught, as if his dog had just died in an accident that also wrecked his car.) There has to be a collection of resonant phrases, Churchillian in tone. Margaret Thatcher, defending the right of the Falkland islanders to live under the crown: “That will be our hope and endeavour, and, I believe, the resolve of every member of this house.” Tony Blair sending the troops into Iraq: “Never let it be said that Britain faltered.” – the Guardian

Conservative ministers failing to deliver

Remarkable anecdote in James Forsyth’sSpectator column this week: One Secretary of State is so fed up with his department’s refusal to answer his questions that he has asked a friend of his, an MP, to put in a Freedom of Information request. The article provides an interesting assessment, suggesting that a mood close to panic is gripping the Conservative wing of the Coalition because of the difficulty of delivery. According to Forsyth, this has dangerously raised expectations of George Osborne’s ability to regain the initiative with the Budget. – John Rentoul, the Independent

Nick Clegg is Osborne’s human shield

Nick Clegg has soaked up the hatred that Osborne had expected to face: “He had predicted before the election he would be Britain’s most unpopular man within six months, but Osborne has cannily managed to avoid that fate… When asked why his prophecy about becoming Britain’s public enemy number one has not yet materialised, Osborne jokes with colleagues: “I hadn’t reckoned on Nick Clegg.” While Clegg was burned in effigy in Whitehall at the student protests last year, Osborne has yet to become a public target for eggs or worse.” – Conservative Home

The power of the civil service

This month, PR Week magazine learnt of a remarkable letter from Sir Gus to David Cameron, protesting that a Tory spin doctor working for the Communities Secretary Eric Pickles had launched a personal attack on a public servant, Jenny Watson, who now heads the Electoral Commission. That attack, Sir Gus wrote, was “unacceptable” and “will not be tolerated”. When David Cameron made a speech in Cardiff suggesting some civil servants were “enemies of enterprise”, the Financial Times reported that at the next meeting of senior civil servants, Sir Gus demanded an explanation from the senior civil servant in No 10, Jeremy Heywood. The Prime Minister is taking a foolish risk if he thinks he can do without the goodwill of the man who, because his initials are GO’D – and for other reasons – is known around Whitehall as GOD. It was O’Donnell whose steady hand made the transition to the first coalition government since 1945 so apparently simple and painless. And as the government presides over a fairly brutal regime of cutbacks, while potentially getting embroiled in a civil war in Libya, it will be O’Donnell who ensures that civil servants stick to the task of carrying out the will of the elected government regardless of their private opinions. – the Independent

UN votes for no fly zone

No more fear, no more hesitation. The moment of truth has come. That address by Colonel Gaddafi to the people of Benghazi finally prevailed on the UN security council. A body bedevilled by fear and hesitation faced its own moment of truth last night and voted for military action against Gaddafi’s troops. The resolution could, in the circumstances, not have been stronger. Whereas the magic words “all necessary means” were missing from the Resolution 1441 that Tony Blair tried, and failed, to interpret as a legal mandate for war, this authorisation sanctioned “all necessary measures”, barring ground invasion,  to protect the people of Libya. Doubters said that, if the UN ever acted, it would be too little and too late. Perhaps it will be. Huge problems lie ahead not only in helping those under siege in Benghazi but in using the levers the world has seized. It is not yet clear whether civilian protection is the only objective or whether the coming operation will not stop short of the removal of Gaddafi from power. If so, then who will take his place? – the Telegraph

RAF ground attack aircraft are ready to help impose a no-fly zone overLibya as ministers ordered defence chiefs to finalise plans enabling Britain to take part immediately in military action against forces loyal to Colonel Gaddafi. Tornado all-weather attack aircraft, equipped with precision weapons, were almost certain to be the first British assets used in any military operation, officials said. They are based at RAF Lossiemouth in Scotland and RAF Marham in Norfolk. Though due to phased out under the government’s defence their performance has been tested in operations over decades. It was not immediately clear whether they would fly from a military base in southern France or from RAF Akrotiri, in one of Britain’s sovereign base areas in Cyprus. It was also unclear whether Eurofighter Typhoons would take part in an operation. Britain has two ships off the Libyan coast, and Chinook helicopters and early-warning aircraft equipped with long-range radar based in Malta, but would need permission from the Maltese government to use them in action over Libya. – the Guardian

Darling warns Osborne on economy

Mr Darling’s thoughts now on the economy and the banking system, which we report today, deserve a wide audience. Mr Darling knows the Treasury from the inside. So his view that officials there will be working on a “Plan B”, to be used in the event that the economy crashes because of the Chancellor’s ambitious deficit reduction strategy, is significant. It raises an important question: will Mr Osborne quash Treasury suggestions of an alternative fiscal course for his own political reasons? Mr Darling’s argument that the banking sector has not fully learned the lessons from the financial crisis – and that banks are still over-reliant on wholesale funding – is also accurate. This is intimately connected to the question of the sustainability of the national finances because it is doubtful whether the state could afford another banking crisis. The Coalition will doubtless dismiss Mr Darling’s intervention as the usual partisan Labour critique of its economic policy. But that would be a mistake. Mr Darling has been proven right. – the Independent

70% favour slower cuts

British voters fear the Governments cuts are coming too fast to protect public services, but just under half blame the former Labour Government, a poll for Ipsos Mori has shown. The survey showed that 70% of people would favour cutting more slowly to reduce the impact on beleaguered public services. Just 28% of respondents said the Government had found the right balance between increasing taxes and reducing spending. Polling also revealed that Ed Miliband is the least popular party leader, with an approval rating of 36% against David Cameron’s 47% and Nick Clegg’s 40%. – Politics Home

Clegg defiant on AV role

Nick Clegg will defy calls for him to “lie low” in the referendum for voting system reform when he speaks at the launch of the Liberal Democrats’ “Yes To AV” campaign. Mr Clegg will insist the issue is not about party politics, and will set out his determination to argue the case for a change to the alternative vote (AV) “with passion”. Changing to a form of proportional representation for parliamentary elections has been a cornerstone Liberal Democrat demand for decades. A vote on AV – which is not a proportional system – was a compromise they secured in coalition negotiations with the Tories. The “Yes” campaign puts Mr Clegg into battle against Prime Minister David Cameron, who, along with most of his MPs, opposes the change. – Sky

Universities hit by cuts

English universities face a funding cut of 12% before the arrangements for tuition fees are changed. The chief executive of funding body Hefce, Sir Alan Langlands, described the reduction in spending as a “challenging settlement”. The cut includes an average 4% decrease in ‘recurrent grants’ for teaching and research, as well as capital spending cuts. Funding could also be hit by new visa restrictions on foreign students coming to study here.  The House of Commons Home Affairs Committee warns that raising the required standard of English for students could “cripple” the university sector. Universities Minister David Willetts said new funding arrangement would support “a more diverse sector” in which “the choices of informed students provide a drive towards high quality teaching and efficient use of resources”. The 1994 Group, which includes 19 of the UK’s leading research intensive universities, said the cut to capital funding poses a long-term threat to institutions. – Politics Home

Opposition to health reform grows

Hospitals will shut, others will lose their accident and emergency or maternity units, and some will be downgraded to glorified health centres because of the government’s NHS shakeup, the head of England’s leading hospitals has warned.  Sue Slipman, chief executive of the Foundation Trust Network, told the Guardian that handing GPs control of £80bn of NHS funds, letting private healthcare firms provide treatment and giving patients more choice about where they are treated – key policies promoted by the health secretary,Andrew Lansley – would increase existing pressures on hospitals so much that some will not survive. “There will be some ‘shut’ signs; I suspect there will be some closures. There will be fewer A&E departments and in urban centres there may well be fewer maternity units,” said Slipman, who predicted unprecedented changes to hospitals over the next few years. Cities, especially London, will experience the greatest loss of hospital facilities, she believes, while local hospitals in rural areas are more likely to continue to offer a traditional wide range of medical services. – the Guardian (more…)

More opposition to Lansley as BMA vote against health reforms

GPs could more than double their income to £300,000 a year under health secretary Andrew Lansley‘s plans for the NHS, according to an analysis for the Guardian – sparking calls from top doctors for the government to reverse controversial policies that would appear to reward physicians who ration care. The revelation comes after the British Medical Association voted to scrap the “dangerous” health bill and demanded that Lansley rethink his radical pro-market changes to the NHS. GPs are central to the government’s programme, and by 2013 will have to band together into consortiums before being handed £80bn of NHS funds to commission care for their patients. At the heart of many doctors’ concerns lies the possibility that, under the reforms, GPs’ pay will be linked to rationing patient care; in essence, being rewarded for saving the taxpayer money. Doctors’ leaders warned that the public would view as “unethical” any move towards a GP’s assessment of a person’s medical need being coloured by a profit motive. – the Guardian

Doctors’ leaders yesterday stopped short of a vote of no confidence in Health Secretary Andrew Lansley but demanded that he halt his plans to reform the NHS and condemned his failure to act on their concerns. In what is turning out to be a torrid week for the Health Secretary, the British Medical Association (BMA) called on him to withdraw the Health and Social Care Bill, now going through Parliament, and warned that it would lead to the “fragmentation” and “privatisation” of the NHS. However, the BMA failed to back a vote of no confidence and stopped short of condemning its leadership for pursuing a policy of “critical engagement” with the Government rather than outright opposition to the Bill, after an appeal from the chairman, Hamish Meldrum, not to “tie our hands”. – the Independent (more…)

Osborne to remove maternity and paternity rights

Firms employing 10 staff or fewer could win exemptions from strict maternity and paternity leave regulations under plans being drawn up by ministers. Leaked details of a “growth strategy” to form the centrepiece of next week’s Budget show that George Osborne, the Chancellor, is proposing a major deregulation drive which would benefit hundreds of thousands of small companies. The strategy is expected to include proposals aimed to address the staffing problems caused to such firms by strict maternity leave laws. In the future, companies with 10 or fewer employees could be given the right to negotiate maternity and paternity leave “deals” directly with their workers. Mark Prisk, the deregulation minister, will meet business leaders in the next few days to discuss the plans, this newspaper understands. The Budget will be announced by Mr Osborne on 23 March. – the Telegraph

If this is George Osborne’s growth strategy then he’s in greater denial about the state of the economy than I feared. It’s nonsense to suggest that the balanced measures Labour took in government to help parents juggle work and family life are what’s stopping our economy growing. It isn’t working parents who are holding our economy back. What’s holding back the recovery is the Tory VAT rise and cuts which go too deep and too fast, are damaging business and consumer confidence and costing hundreds of thousands of jobs in the public and private sector. Governments always have to be vigilant and everyone should want to bear down on unnecessary or badly-designed regulation where they can. But the government’s plans will cost jobs if firms with 11 or 12 people decide to downsize to take advantage and it will make it harder for mums and dads to go out to work. Ministers should not be using the cover of a flimsy growth strategy to strip away the rights of millions of workers. They need to think this one through again and come up with a credible plan to get the economy growing strongly and unemployment falling again. – Ed Balls (more…)