In its proponents’ own terms, AV is just soft porn and repeats of Minder

18/01/2011, 07:00:03 AM

by Kevin Meagher

At this time of year, it’s chilly up there on the moral high ground. But that isn’t stopping Yes campaigners for May’s referendum on the alternative vote (AV) donning their bobble hats and clambering up to pitch their tents.

They are doubtless buoyed by a poll in yesterday’s Independent on Sunday which showed 61 per cent of the electorate “could be persuaded” to make the change from first-past-the-post to AV.

This led some chap called Jonathan Bartley from the Yes to Fairer Votes campaign, to write to former Labour deputy leader, Margaret Beckett (who is President of No to AV) to demand “in sorrow rather than anger” that they hear “truthful and honest arguments” for the retention of FPTP in future.

That’s you told, Marge.

For huffy Yes-ers like Mr. Bartley, those staying loyal to our current first past the post (FPTP) system are “defending the indefensible”. FPTP, they argue, is “an analogue system in a digital age”. A strange comparison, I would have thought. Digital television is full of soft porn, repeats of Minder and shopping channels auctioning crappy jewellery. (more…)

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Dear Ed, remember that party members are not normal

17/01/2011, 01:46:28 PM

by Tom Harris

Dear Ed,

2011 will be a tough year for you and for our party.

Remember when we last spoke, you asked me what I thought we needed to do in order to win the next election? Having given the subject some thought since then, I think I can now flesh out my original, admittedly unsatisfying, response of  “win more seats than the Tories”.

Before being able to answer your question, however, it seems sensible to ask why we lost the last election. A recent YouGov poll of ordinary voters concluded that the three main reasons were Labour’s record on immigration, the damage the recession did to our economic credibility, and the personal unpopularity of your predecessor, Gordon Brown.

However, YouGov asked the same question of Labour party members, and the answers were significantly different. Neither Gordon Brown nor immigration figured prominently in their responses; instead they cited becoming out of touch with ordinary voters and failing to do enough to help its natural working-class supporters (although they agreed that the recession was an important factor). (more…)

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Fixed term parliaments means maximum two-term prime ministers

17/01/2011, 07:00:55 AM

by John Woodcock

David Cameron’s days as prime minister are numbered. But Ed Miliband is not going to last in the top job as long as Tony Blair did.

It is not that I have been afflicted with a career-limiting combination of nostalgia for past Labour leaders and naïve over-enthusiasm after a single by-election win.

My predictions on the longevity of the current prime minister and his would-be successor stem in fact from a little-considered consequence of fixed term parliaments: namely, that they may well unintentionally place a US-style two-term limit on anyone’s stay at number ten. (And before anyone starts, I am not saying that I think Mr Cameron is on course for a win in 2015. He is not).

But let’s assume for a moment that governments will not generally collapse mid-term and trigger unexpected early elections. For all the trauma currently being experienced by the Liberal Democrats, those at the top are strapped into their ministerial priuses so securely that it is very hard to see them breaking away early. (more…)

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The Sunday Review: Obama’s Arizona speech

16/01/2011, 02:30:01 PM

by Anthony Painter

On a chilly April night in 1968, America’s second greatest poet-warrior in modern times climbed onto the back of a truck and gave a speech of transcendent power in the aftermath of the assassination of its greatest poet-warrior. Largely ad-libbed, Robert F Kennedy defined the moment, eschewing violence and outrage in favour of hope and healing.

“What we need in the United States is not division; what we need in the United States is not hatred; what we need in the United States is not violence and lawlessness, but is love, and wisdom, and compassion toward one another, and a feeling of justice toward those who still suffer within our country, whether they be white or whether they be black”.

The words could almost have been uttered by Martin Luther King himself. Perhaps in a strange way they were channeled through King – at a conceptual level at least. The theatre of modern politics is less chaotic, more stage-managed, and more crafted. Even in the context of higher production values, words can retain their moral force. President Obama’s challenge in the University of Arizona on Wednesday was to comfort a moment of national tragedy and set a new course. He did so and reminded the US of his poet warrior status at the same time. (more…)

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Ruthless, brutal, heartless: our attacks are music to Tory ears

15/01/2011, 10:23:16 AM

by Dan Hodges

The trouble with politics is there’s never a ragin’ Cajun around when you need one.

Ed Miliband has begun the New Year by springing from his corner with the speed and ferocity of Jake LaMotta. Cameron and Clegg have been pinned to the ropes as the punches rain down. VAT. Banker’s bonuses. Oldham. One killer blow and they’ll be eating canvass.

But something’s holding Raging Ed back. The final hay maker feels heavy in the glove. For some reason, he can’t quite put them down.

James Carville would know the reason.  Bill Clinton’s campaign manager had the answer to every political conundrum. And it was the same answer.  “It’s the economy, stupid”.

Ever since the graphic, “Conservatives retain Basildon”, flashed across our television screens that cold morning in 1992, Labour strategists have held one truth to be self evident. The party that is not trusted to run the economy will not be entrusted with running the country.

Bill Clinton’s election victory later that year confirmed it. For the first time for over two decades a progressive party had taken on the right, and bested them, by selecting the economy as their battleground. As we watch Barack Obama move to heal his nation, and look back wistfully at three consecutive election wins, it’s easy to forget the significance of that victory.

But some have forgotten. To them it’s no longer “the economy stupid”. Now, it’s “the cuts stupid”. Polly Toynbee’s “red carpet of opportunity” lies enticingly before us. As the Tory led coalition scythes through our public services a terrified electorate prepares to leap gratefully into the arms of their Labour protectors.

Possibly. The Lib Dem’s are already in free fall as a result of their cynical act of appeasement. The Tories cannot indefinitely defy the laws of political gravity. Ultimately, the cuts will take a toll of the architects as well as the victims.

But a word of warning: if we have learnt anything about this Government it is that their callousness is underpinned by a low cunning. Cameron and Osborne are not fools. They have a strategy. And we are playing to it.

Ruthlessness implies competence. Brutality; strength. Heartlessness; decisiveness. (more…)

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Oldham win lifts Labour out of relegation zone

14/01/2011, 07:00:32 AM

by Atul Hatwal

It’s a tough stage of the season in both football and politics. The threat of relegation stalks struggling teams. Managers are desperate for some breathing space. Only one thing can help: a win. Every game is like a cup final.

Last night Ed Miliband lifted the coveted Oldham East and Saddleworth cup. For once, the morning’s newspapers provide decent reading for Labour. There will be no need for hastily arranged media interviews to stamp on rumours about losing the dressing room. Victory has bought the Labour leadership time.

The question is: how will they use it?

Learning from a win can be difficult. The temptation is to take it as a vindication of all that has gone before. But booking the open-top bus would be premature. There is plenty of cause for caution.

Recent polls paint a picture of an electorate that has not changed its mind on the fundamentals since the election. 40% of people think that the cuts are Labour’s fault. 52% think that they are necessary.

The most relevant polling is on the impact of the cuts. 51% believe the cuts will only affect their family’s income a little and 16% not at all. 63% do not think their job is at risk.

Two-thirds of the electorate think that it’s all going to be ok. (more…)

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Is it ok for socialists to pay for private education and healthcare?

13/01/2011, 07:00:37 AM

by Peter Watt

Like many other parents, we have spent the last two weeks trying to sort out a school for our four-year-old. Coming straight after the Christmas break, it means I have had lots of reasons to reflect on how my family, and my children in particular, are the most important thing in the world to me.

I am at one of those transition stages in life. I have just finished one job and start a new one in February. It has made me a bit introspective, to be honest. I look back with sadness at the sacrifices that my family, my older children in particular, made so that I could pursue a career in politics. I thought about the school plays and the messy pasta and paint pictures that I chose to miss. All in order to work long hours. I am lucky that they don’t seem to hold it against me. But I am sad at the shared experiences that we missed and grateful for the things that we do now do together.

My now better-balanced life means spending more time with the younger children. This year I saw three nativity plays, went to four Christmas parties and cannot count the number of times I bumped into Father Christmas.

Seeing and thinking about my children develop, change, explore and grow is incredible. It has made me think of every other family, across the country, doing whatever they can to put their family and children first. (more…)

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A snap election promises Cameron the glory he craves

12/01/2011, 07:00:05 AM

by Tom Watson

The Conservatives are preparing for a general election in May. That is what a devilishly well-placed conservative insider told me in response to my “Operation Detach” column last week.

My source has been spot on in the past. He also told me that the working assumption for Andy Coulson’s departure announcement was now 25th January. He told me this to help justify his argument that an election in May was a strong possibility. Clearing the decks and all that.

I immediately dismissed the idea of an early election, but it has gnawed at me since. And the more I think about it, the more I think the logic is impeccable. It was Peter Oborne’s brilliantly incisive new year’s eve column that firmed up my thinking.

Here’s the rationale within the Cameron camp: (more…)

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It was the risk not the spending that Labour got wrong

11/01/2011, 04:15:34 PM

by Anthony Painter

Ed Miliband is in a bind. He is tied to a fiscal policy that the public believes was profligate and irresponsible. His strategy so far has been to defend that record to the best of his ability. That is not enough. It may be time to switch tack.

The debate is homing in on the question of whether Labour was spending too great before the 2007 turbulence. And actually if you pull out the figures the answer is marginally on the side of ‘defend the record’- on the face of it. Current spending was in deficit ahead of the crisis though not catastrophically so- 0.3% of GDP in 2006-2007. The public sector net debt was lower than in 1997 at 36.6%.

None of this looks irresponsible in fiscal terms. Public sector productivity and inefficiency tell a slightly different story- there is no doubt that the money invested in public services post-2001 failed to raise output as it should have done. Steve Richards in his articulation of the case for the defence in the Independent this morning acknowledges that fact:

“Labour failed to address inefficiencies in the public sector and some of the additional investment was wasted needlessly, but the overall spending was necessary at the time, as Blair discovered then and some senior Tories discover now.”

So the case for the defence seems to exonerate Labour for imprudence but is more ambiguous on wastefulness. (more…)

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The Piers Morgan of politics – 30 years since the birth of the SDP

11/01/2011, 02:30:05 PM

By David Seymour

Can it really be 30 years since the formation of the SDP? What a torrent of political water has flown under the bridge since then.

Younger readers will not have experienced that extraordinary mix of violent bitterness between those who left the Labour party and those who stayed (not to mention the internecine hatred between many of those who remained) and the thrill of something momentous happening in British politics.

The infiltration of the organised left – particularly the Militant tendency (note to younger subs: keep as lower case t) – and the chaos of the disorganised left was tearing Labour apart. Thatcher was in power but deeply unpopular.

It was such an exciting time to be involved in politics, but looking back on it now, you can’t help wondering what all the fuss was about. Was the result of all that angst and agony simply the creation of New Labour and this coalition government? (more…)

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