by Atul Hatwal
Just over two weeks ago I posted a projection of huge losses for Labour – over 90 seats – based on dozens of conversations with activists, candidates and officials who cumulatively had sight of tens of thousands of canvass returns.
Since then, I’ve continued those conversations as Labour has apparently surged in the polls.
The result is a marked improvement in London but precious little to cheer about outside the capital.
The last few weeks have seen a strong rise in Labour promises in key seats across London, although constituencies such as Dagenham and Eltham remain very difficult.
But in the West Midlands, Yorkshire, North West and the North East, any improvement has been nugatory.
One campaigner from London who spent time in the North East last week described it as a “nuclear winter for Labour.”
The doorstep returns outside of London are saying that Labour is still running substantially below its 2015 vote, that Ukip votes are transferring in huge numbers to the Tories with losses in prospect of the mid-60s to mid-90s and a lingering possibility that the situation could be even worse come Thursday.
What on earth is happening? Are the doorstep results wrong? Or is it the polls?
