by Tom Harris

Dear Ed,

2011 will be a tough year for you and for our party.

Remember when we last spoke, you asked me what I thought we needed to do in order to win the next election? Having given the subject some thought since then, I think I can now flesh out my original, admittedly unsatisfying, response of  “win more seats than the Tories”.

Before being able to answer your question, however, it seems sensible to ask why we lost the last election. A recent YouGov poll of ordinary voters concluded that the three main reasons were Labour’s record on immigration, the damage the recession did to our economic credibility, and the personal unpopularity of your predecessor, Gordon Brown.

However, YouGov asked the same question of Labour party members, and the answers were significantly different. Neither Gordon Brown nor immigration figured prominently in their responses; instead they cited becoming out of touch with ordinary voters and failing to do enough to help its natural working-class supporters (although they agreed that the recession was an important factor). (more…)