by Jonathan Todd
Throughout Ed Miliband’s leadership there have been those at Labour Party conference prepared to mock and criticise him. There have also been Milibelivers. In between these pessimists and optimists have been pragmatists, seeing both positives and weaknesses in Miliband, seeking to accentuate the former and minimise the latter.
Milibelivers felt thin on the ground this week. I made a point of asking everyone I spoke to how they assessed the mood. “Flat,” was the usual response. After Miliband’s speech, I also enquired what they thought of it. The elderly delegate from a Labour constituency in the north east of England who described it as “the icing on the cake of his week” was the exception in speaking wholly warmly about it.
The dearth of Milibelivers had the effect that pragmatists felt less conference peer pressure to align themselves with the optimists and more to mirror the concerns of the pessimists. We entered a spiral of negativity. The conference vibe was much like twitter where the cheerleading tweets of MPs during Miliband’s speech were drowned out by the mirth of others.
The grounds for optimism cited by elected representatives, however, were not always without foundation. One told me of a Labour business breakfast attended by many more businesses and senior business people than in previous years. Public affairs agencies informed me that they were bringing more clients to conference than in recent years and clients were keener to attend.
Business is preparing for Labour government. They are right to do so. After Douglas Carswell’s defection to UKIP, presuming he succeeds in retaining his seat in the upcoming by election, the idea that UKIP will poll something in the order of 10 per cent in 2015 seems plausible. While an effective ground game is likely to secure the Liberal Democrats many more MPs than UKIP, probably somewhere between 30 and 40, their national polling has been on the floor for so long that it also seems plausible that they might poll somewhere in the same 10 per cent region. Both the persistence of UKIP and the non-recovery of the Liberal Democrats favour Labour over the Conservatives. As do the parliamentary boundaries. As does the incomplete nature of David Cameron’s half-baked detoxification of his party.
Nigel Farage will lick his lips at this prospect, particularly if prime minister Miliband can only be sustained with Liberal Democrat support. With every cycle of elections, the Liberal Democrat activist base is further hallowed. It may well be that this trend isn’t reversed till they are again in opposition. Therefore, if they hang on to a reasonable number of MPs in 2015 and are again in government in the next parliament, they may lack the activists to hang on to this extent in 2020. Meanwhile, if prime minister Miliband is slow to meet the hopes that he has raised in the north, UKIP will be a sponge to this disappointment and will fancy their chances of becoming the opposition to Labour in much of this region.
To avoid this scenario, Miliband would need to prove what he stressed in his speech: that Labour government can make a difference. His faith in governmental capacity belies the extent of government failure and the complexity of the challenges that we now face. He’s been right, for example, to consistently make much of median wage stagnation. But his speech contained little by way of a growth strategy, certainly not one calibrated to the complex interactions between technology and globalisation that explain the wage depression that he is rightly agitated by.
Leadership was also deferred on key issues. He’s effectively subcontracted to the UN his position on Iraq and Syria. He appears no more prepared to confront evil there as English votes for English laws (EVEL) here. EVEL is a flawed response to a genuine constitutional problem. Miliband didn’t acknowledge this problem, highlight these flaws or propose a better solution. He asked us to have a chat. While replacing the Lords with a Senate, as he advocated, sounds sensible, it also risks the impression that Labour will only take a definitive position on constitutional reform when it suits our narrow interests.
National leadership demands the ability to rise above sectional concerns. Closing the deficit will require such leadership. Notwithstanding the omitted section of his speech, we have learnt less from Miliband on how he’d provide this leadership than we might have done. What his speech offered rapidly started to fray under scrutiny. Andy Burnham endured a car crash interview with Andrew Neil immediately afterward. “He’s an empty suit, all eyelashes and no trousers,” lamented the activist next to me.
As businesses are alive to the possibility of Labour government, activists need to be prepared to fight for such government. But conference has provided little to enthuse them. There is a sense of trepidation about life after next May, whether this finds Labour in government or not.
Jonathan Todd is Deputy Editor of Labour Uncut
Tags: #Lab14, Ed Miliband, general election 2015, Jonathan Todd, Milibelievers
Ah, the smell of desperation……
Keep talking yourself round Jonathan.
The Labour conference and Miliband’s efforts have been truly panned by everyone….even Labour attendees.
“Yesterday I bumped into an ordinary working person called Gareth in a park. He told me ‘ this Labour party is doomed and that numpty in charge…’. Well Gareth…..To be continued as a SpAd dragged Ed away at this point.
Oh come on, I expect a bit more realism fomr this site. Youmust realise that Labours Polling figures are puffed up with Protest Votes & people who wont vote at all. The real level of Labour support is probably somewhere in the high twenties.
Yes, UKIP look set to do The Tories real damage but suppose they take a Seat from Labour as well, or even come a close 2nd. The Labour team in Heywood seem suddenly nervous if the rumours are to be believed.
Voting next May is going to be heavily fragmented, even a Coalition with The Libdems may not be enough.
“a Labour business breakfast attended by many more businesses and senior business people than in previous years.”
Whoopeedo. I’d have come along myself if I’d known, and brought a few thousand starving fellow Benefit Scroungers with me. Breakfast is something I can only dream of.
“Whoopeedo. I’d have come along myself if I’d known, and brought a few thousand starving fellow Benefit Scroungers with me. Breakfast is something I can only dream of.”
And Tories wonder why they’re rightly so hated.
@Paul Barker
Tories in denial.
Let’s get real shall we: all the Tory leaning pundints expected the Tories to be in the lead in the polls by now.
But they’re behind!
And instead of asking why, their supporters come onto sites like this to denigrate Labour’s poll share – which is superior to their own.
Work out why the Tories are loathed before you pontificate on Labour’s problems (of which there are many).
Because if Labour are beating you now, you have some big big issues to sort out yourselves.
And instead of asking why, their supporters come onto sites like this to denigrate Labour’s poll share – which is superior to their own.
You mean they come on here to denigrate Labour’s pathetic poll share even though theirs is marginally more pathetic thanks to UKIP as opposed to Miliband..