Brexit means austerity and the death of Corbyn’s hope

by Jonathan Todd

The Mandibles – Lionel Shriver’s latest – is a gripping and darkly hilarious story of a family and an America, over the years 2029 to 2047, in spectacular decline.

In our imploding chimney of a country, collapsing in on itself, we, too, feel precipitous descent. The appalling suffering and injustice of Grenfell. The banality of Islamic and right-wing evil. The biggest governmental challenge since World War II, with the least convincing prime minister since the last one.

Oddly enough, as everything that could go wrong goes wrong, The Mandibles reveals an optimistic core. This hope doesn’t come from institutions, abstractions, or politics. It is created by the visceral self-sacrifice and resilience of individuals, driven by love for those around them.

Oh, Jeremy Corbyn.

Like the Mandible family, Britain yearns to hope. Unlike them, we haven’t given up on politics as its source.

I was too young for Blair and am too old for Corbyn. Still up for Portillo but too wide-eyed to really absorb its historic significance. Not wide-eyed enough to have any anticipation of Kensington and Chelsea turning red.

Hope is what unites Corbyn with the Blair of 97. Much of the country looks into their eyes and sees a better tomorrow. Others scoff and are certain of disaster. My A-Level Economics teacher won £10 on a pub bet that there would be a recession within six-months of PM Blair.

New Labourites are misremembering if they think that Blair did not suffer doubters, as Corbyn does now. They would be lacking in generosity to not concede that Corbyn, as Blair did then, has, for those who have suspended any disbelief, become a canvass for disparate, even contradictory, hopes.

I’m not the first to draw comparisons between Corbyn and Blair. The left’s instinctive trust in Corbyn allows him, according to Matt Bolton, to successfully triangulate, that most Blairite of things. But Brexit is a triangulation too far.

“While Corbyn’s much derided ‘0% strategy’ on Brexit proved to a be a short-term electoral masterstroke,” Bolton observes, “assuring Red Kippers that he was committed to pulling out of the single market and clamping down on immigration, while allowing Remainers to project their hopes for a softer landing onto him, at some point a decision has to be made.”

When making that decision, Corbyn should remember that the hope that he holds most dearly, and which many more have invested deeply in him, is to end austerity. In the real world of debt and deficits, this goal is incompatible with weak and deteriorating public finances. The harder the Brexit, the more likely this outcome.

Of the hardest of the hard, the UK exiting the EU with no deal, the Financial Times anticipates, “disruption on a scale rarely seen in peacetime affecting almost every business in Britain”. When our prime minister says no deal is better than a bad deal, she is as implausible as when she claims 80% of us support Brexit.

NHS nursing recruitment from the EU is down 96%. Forget Eurozone breakup, sterling is now deemed riskier, as Reuters explain. From banking to the creative industries, investment and jobs are moving out of the UK. Rolling chaos and constitutional crisis at home, laughing stock abroad. No street parties on the first anniversary of our “Independence Day”.

This is just the beginning but Project Fear is becoming Project Life, while the claims of Brexiteers are exposed as lies, without which they concede that they wouldn’t have won the referendum.

If four in five of us want this, we are the fools that Theresa May has taken us for. The past that May embodies is dying but the future that Corbyn promises is not yet born.

Those that cheer loudest for Corbyn – the Glastonbury kids – reject Brexit as vehemently as they do May, our diminished Queen Boudica. Equally, perhaps to a lesser extent than is sometimes suspected, Corbyn’s coalition includes Brexit voters. But what such voters most urgently need is a Corbyn government to end austerity, not a Brexit induced recession to continue it.

Corbyn being cool with Brexit – even of a softer variety – would go down as well with many as a Gary Glitter comeback on the Pyramid Stage. Those for whom Brexit holds more attraction will dwindle as its costs become more apparent, which Corbyn should be energetic in highlighting.

Ed Miliband told the Labour party that we could win to the left of Blair. Corbyn might prove him right. The main thing that Miliband told business was that he wouldn’t expose them to an EU referendum. This wasn’t enough to make Labour the party of business in 2015 but all that Miliband said that the Tories risked has come to pass, meaning a pro-EU Corbyn might now get a surprisingly enthusiastic response from business. Especially if flanked by the Labour voices most fluent in the language of business, such as Chuka Umunna.

The prize that Miliband held out to the UK – of being a northern European social democracy – is within Corbyn’s grasp. But, in political and policy terms, the EU remains a vital ingredient of this mix.

If Corbyn does not see this, if the UK does not change course, we’ll be forced to look for hope exclusively in the places that the Mandibles found it. The message of The Mandibles reflects Shriver’s libertarian politics. Socialists hope for more.

Oh, what a responsibility.

Jonathan Todd is Deputy Editor of Labour Uncut


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16 Responses to “Brexit means austerity and the death of Corbyn’s hope”

  1. NHSGP says:

    Austerity is a result of the debts.

    30% of taxation goes on the debts, and even though state spending is in line with inflation spending on services has been slashed because of the debt servicing costs.

    Personal austerity, taking home less is after all what you want, you want more tax.

    What do you expect when the welfare state owes 8.5 trillion with no assets?

    What do you expect when the civil service pension fund owes 1.5 trillion with no assets?

    1.5 trillion of borrowing?

    0.3 trillion of PFI?

    Debts come with consequences.

    You should have invested the money rather than spend it.

  2. buttley says:

    “Especially if flanked by the Labour voices most fluent in the language of business, such as Chuka Umunna.”

    Yawn, yawn, & thrice yawn.

    A talent we can merrily do without.

  3. Tafia says:

    NHS nursing recruitment from the EU is down 96%

    That was shown to be factually incorrect more than a week ago hence why Labour no longer mention it (nor does James O’Brien on LBC). For you not to know this renders the whole article pointless.

  4. Anne says:

    Kier Starmer has said he wants the UK to have tariff free trade with the EU and to remain within the customs union – to leave access to the single market on the table. Chuka has said that we should be part of the single market. These seem more sensible approaches than what David Davies is suggesting – a most boring uninspiring man. I don’t think it is in the interests of the country for one man to be undertaking these negotiations- there should be a group set up of business people, trade unions and legal minds to work out the best way forward – jobs and the economy should be the priority.
    A word must also be said about the Conservatives buying the DUP votes – is this legal? It looks like a bribe to me. Will Mrs May be giving The Scots and the Welsh a billion for their projects – buying votes to stay in power.

  5. Rob says:

    Yet another anti-Brexit polemic……I voted Remain but it’s time to look to the future, making the best of Brexit not standing on the sidelines pointing out all the negatives.

  6. Tafia says:

    Anne Kier Starmer has said he wants the UK to have tariff free trade with the EU and to remain within the customs union – to leave access to the single market on the table. Chuka has said that we should be part of the single market.</i

    This just sjhows the complete rubbish that Labour’s position on BREXIT is.

    Both McDonnell and Corbyn (amongst others) said the position is leaving the Single Market including the Customs Union (the Customs Union is an integral part of the Single Market, as is Freedom of Movement) .So the question is, who is lying – Corbyn/McDonnell & Co, or Starmer, Umanna & co. Because both positions are totally incompatable and one side or the other are bald-faced liars and deliberately misleading either the new young voters or the UKIP returnees. Labour’s Manifesto said likewise. As a reminder, the Single Market consists of 4 pillars, non of which are negotiable – you are either in the Single Market totally or out of it totally and only the replacement of the Lisbon Treaties can change that.

    1. Free movement of goods, persons, services and capital between member states
    2. The approximation of relevant laws, regulations and administrative provisions between member states
    3. EU-wide competition policy, administered by the commission
    4. A system of common external tariffs (CET – also known as the common customs tariff)

    As the EU has made plain, before we can negotiate special deals for Tariff Free access etc, we must first leave the EU and the Single Market. We are mebers of the Customs Union by virtue of the fact we are in the EU and not – as is the case with Turkey etc, because we have negotiated any stand-alone deal not withstanding that the EU are admant that we cannot negotiate a stand alone deal until after we leave.

    I don’t think it is in the interests of the country for one man to be undertaking these negotiations
    Starnge as it may seem, this is possibly why their is a Commons Cross Parety committee chaired by Labour’s Hilary Benn , along with a full negotiating team and hundreds of Civil Servants.

    there should be a group set up of business people, trade unions and legal minds to work out the best way forward
    That will happen the day after you can find a common position between Jacob Rees-Mogg, Yvette Cooper, Nicola Sturgeon, Leanne Wood, whoever ends up leading the LibDems, the Ulster unionists, the Ulster nationalists etc etc – there isn’t one. What’s actually needed is the acceptance by Parliament that this is going to happen, it isn’t going to be de-railed and that their job is to support HM Government’s position in international matters and make it work – not constantly nit-pick and carp. If they did that they may find Theresa May will include them more – but at present a substantial chunk of them are being deliberately obstructive, working against the government and making the country look weak. They are also rapidly making themselves irrelevant. It’s happening – and if you don’t work with it then once we are out you are no longer politically relevant.

    We are going to have a ‘Hard’ or ‘Full’ Brexit and it will happen within the two years. Business is preparing for it mainly on account of the fact that succesful businesses rarely delude themselves. Which is more than can be said for a substantial chunk of Remainers. Even the SNP today now accept that Brexit must happen and be complete before they can have IndyRef2.

    A word must also be said about the Conservatives buying the DUP votes – is this legal? It looks like a bribe to me. Will Mrs May be giving The Scots and the Welsh a billion for their projects – buying votes to stay in power.
    Yes it is perfectly legal. And before you mention the Barnett Consequential, that was & is purely advisory and not binding. I dare say May would quite happily offer similar deals to the SNP and Plaid in return for a binding 2 year Confidence & Supply agreement.

  7. Tafia says:

    Oh, and can we get something straight about austerity and cuts? Adjusted for inflation and GDP movement the Austerity/cuts amounts to a collasal 0.7% (yes, zero point 7 %)

    Benefits were ring fenced and have risen faster than inflation as have pensions, NHS spending again ring-fenced has increased faster than inflation.

    In a sensible economy, state spending would rise or fall in line with GDP- ie as GDP rises, public spending rises at the same rate, not faster. If GDP falls public spending falls with it. You’ll never pay the debt off (in fact it will still grow marginally but inflation should limit that). In a Keynesian/Austrian School model the excact opposite – ie as GDP rose pubic spending falls and vice versa. The economy would basically flat-line but it would limit the effects of overheating and recession. But again you’ll never pay the debt off.

  8. Tafia says:

    Buttley “Especially if flanked by the Labour voices most fluent in the language of business, such as Chuka Umunna.”

    Yawn, yawn, & thrice yawn.

    A talent we can merrily do without.

    I used to be a member of the Manchester Chamber of Commerce at the same time Umanna was in the Labour government. Most of what he said was met with howls of laughter and the considered opinion of succesful business people that he didn’t know his arse from his elbow about business and wouldn’t last 5 minutes even running a whelk stall.

  9. @Jonathan Todd is right to fear Brexit. Its consequences are only very slowly being felt, and the real risk is that the pain will come too late, when we’ve reached the point of no return.

    But I am also deeply worried about the damage that a Corbyn government would do.

    Some of his supporters say he’s really a social democrat, and not of the hard left. If he were, he’d have accepted the offer of leading Labour social democrats to be part of his shadow cabinet. He didn’t.

    You can know a man by his friends, by the people he appoints, and those appointments are deeply troubling.

    For just one example of this, see this video of McDonnell from 2012. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zEuKBxdyy-Q And it’s not just McDonnell. Dodgy appointments are rule, rather than the exception, for those who Corbyn appoints to have very dodgy pasts. One, might be a mistake, but there are so many that there is a clear pattern.

    I can understand the despair of Labour moderates in the current political environment, now that May’s incredibly incompetent campaign has given Corbyn a success, and with it ownership of Labour.

    I believe Corbyn will eventually be found out. But, to prepare for that day, we need to do a much better job of creating a workable social democrat alternative, both those in Labour, and those like myself outside.

  10. John P Reid says:

    I know venemant opponents of Corbyn only voted labour as they thought he get us out the single market, didn’t care if he won as it would destroy labour for 2 generation so but that was a price worth paying if we got full Brexit,

  11. Landless Peasant says:

    The author makes the mistake of assuming that Austerity is both necessary and inevitable, it is neither. Austerity is purely a choice of Tory policy, designed to take money from the public purse and transfer it to the Rich. Borrowing has increased under the Tory regime so Austerity cannot be about reducing debt.

  12. Landless Peasant says:

    Tafia, Benefits were not ringfenced they were frozen, which in real terms is a cut, especially also considering that Council Tax is now deducted from unemployment benefit (albeit reduced rate) whereas there used to be full Council Tax reduction for those on JSA.

  13. Anne says:

    I do share some of George’s concerns. I do think we have started on a path with Brexit that is now difficult to control – I do believe we as a country will be damaged economically in the long term, and we are in a position of damage limitation. I listen to all main players in the negotiations- some Tories are changing their position but they are still all over the place – it is also concerning that David Davies is their main negotiator. I am still of the opinion that Kier Starmer is the better negotiator and we would achieve a better deal with him in charge.
    You are also correct George in that you do judge a person by the company they keep and statements made. So I listen very carefully to what JC says. There were many other factors in why Labour gained ground in the last election – a big factor was that the Tories, especially TM were just really poor and, at the moment, continue to be so. Labour has the ‘momentum’ at the moment but that must be built upon, and I believe this can be helped by bringing in talent from the moderate wing of the party – to unite the party – JC has said he is a generous man so he should act on this promise.

  14. Tafia says:

    Landless Peasant Tafia, Benefits were not ringfenced they were frozen, which in real terms is a cut,

    Single person, over 25, per week

    2017 – £73.10
    2010 – £65.45
    That’s just two of the years from the crash to the present. Now go in the internet, find how much it was year by year from 2008 through to this year and tell us all why the figure changes upwards every year if it’s frozen there’s a clever chap.

  15. John. P Reid says:

    2 things can happen a the next election labour wins we’ve run out of so many other peoples money that we’re out of power for 30 years ,or the tories realising they put up the sores campaign ever, put up a good one, labour is complacent and we have our worse result ever

  16. Landless Peasant says:

    Tafia, jsa has been frozen by the Tories. Look it up.

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