by Atul Hatwal
Yes, you read those words correctly. Hope. Labour election victory. More likely. The standout moments from the last year might seem like disasters – freebiegate, Winter Fuel Allowance, disability benefits – but away from these high impact political car crashes, the basis of future success is there and currently being largely ignored.
The case for optimism comprises three parts: what actually matters to the public, signs of improvement in these issues and the level of popular expectation of government and politics.
The various political woes that have befallen the government are real. They are largely self-inflicted and they do impact the public’s view of Keir Starmer’s competence. None of this deniable. But in terms of what really matters to voters , there are two preeminent issues: the cost of living and the NHS. The latest release from the Office for National Statistics’ public opinion survey is for May and the cost of living was cited as the most important issue by 86% of respondents, narrowly ahead of the NHS which was selected by 85% of respondents. For comparison, Immigration was at 59%. Wider data suggests that if voters are forced to only pick one issue (multiple issues could be selected in the ONS survey) the cost of living is the highest ranked issue by a wide margin over the NHS.
This is where voters will make a judgement on whether the Labour government has delivered for them. Most of the noise of politics is immaterial to the public. Either there’s good news in these two areas that is felt by voters, in which case, Labour will be well placed (as would any incumbent government) or there is not, and Labour will likely lose.
The evidence is that there has been solid progress on both fronts over the last year. This article by Tom Calver, Data Editor at the Times provides an excellent summary of the reality on the ground: Wages rising ahead of inflation and waiting lists coming down.
Rising wages, falling waiting lists: an unpopular take, but in a few ways, life in Britain has been (slowly) improving over the past year.
But it doesn’t feel that way — and that’s a problem for Labour
Free to read: www.thetimes.com/article/33c0…
— Tom Calver (@tomcalver.bsky.social) 29 June 2025 at 11:42
