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What would JFK have made of the Tories’ duplicitous weakness on 28 days detention?

19/01/2011, 10:30:27 AM

by Tom Watson

Tomorrow marks 50 years since John F Kennedy’s inaugural presidential address. When David Cameron attends the Nordic conference on behalf of the nation later in the week, his handlers will no doubt try to mark the anniversary by enveloping him in Kennedy stardust. My hunch is that he will want to talk tough, as JFK sometimes did: “let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill”.

Cameron is still looking for international recognition equivalent to that of Blair and Brown and Thatcher. Those television images of statesmen shaking hands in exotic places are the particles of political legacies that politicians crave. In all of Cameron’s grasping hunt for glory, he can only dream of a legacy as enduring as JFK’s. Yet there is a grim reality for our prime minister, one that is only now beginning to reveal itself to him. If you want to leave a positive political legacy in the age of the internet, you probably have to be shot or spend 30 years in jail for a crime you didn’t commit.

And if you don’t believe me, think about the nearest thing the Labour party has to JFK, Tony Blair. That man used to walk on water. The day after tomorrow he will be at the Chilcot enquiry for the second time, wading through misery, as the detail of his decision to take us into Iraq is surgically examined. It wasn’t meant to be this way.

It’s probably an understatement to say that I’ve had disagreements with Mr Blair, but his humiliating second appearance before the committee in some way seems an unworthy way to treat a former prime minister. (more…)

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Do we have to self-immolate to start a revolution against the British Pol Pot?

19/01/2011, 07:00:41 AM

By David Seymour

The swift and partially successful revolution in Tunisia was started by an out-of-work graduate who set himself on fire. Now others under the yoke in despotic regimes are doing the same.

Self-immolation has repelled me since I saw the pictures of Buddhist monks on fire in Vietnam but I have to admit that it has an impact which no other form of protest does. Not that I am volunteering to lead the revolution.

But the impact of what has happened in Tunisia does make me wonder what we have to do to get the British people to realise what is going on in this country.

I am baffled by the Tories, particularly David Cameron. I have no doubt that he genuinely believes in and treasures the National Health Service. He has personal experience of it which few Labour MPs have. When you spend a night a week sleeping on a hospital floor by the bedside of your severely disabled child, you see too clearly the magnificence of NHS staff.

So why is he introducing “reforms” which will destroy the health service? It doesn’t make sense. Even if he has been suckered into believing the nonsense propaganda of the Taxpayers’ Alliance, he can’t be so stupid that he doesn’t understand what the ultimate effect of Lansley’s changes will be. (more…)

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The real middle – and what it really wants

18/01/2011, 02:00:56 PM

by John Spellar

Target voters have been described as Worcester Woman, Mondeo Man and now the “squeezed middle” or “alarm clock Britain”. However, far too much of the discussion has focused on describing the groups rather than trying to assess what this very substantial and important group of voters think, feel or are looking for from politics. In particular, too many commentators seem to believe that they are looking for constant innovation, change and excitement. They would do better to heed Mark Twain, who is reported as saying “I’m all for progress; its change I don’t like”.

With his usual acute observation he encapsulated the attitude of a huge block of voters and particularly those swing voters among the C1 and C2s. They are crucial for elections, not only in the UK, but across the English speaking world. Indeed, I suspect, in much of the rest of the world, particularly the Nordic countries.

In Britain, they have been the backbone of Labour victories, but also the key to victories for Conservative leaders who can tap into their psyche and articulate their concerns. Elsewhere, Ronald Reagan was probably the most adept at this. While the Australian leader, John Howard, and Margaret Thatcher built their success on this group in their earlier years, both were probably too much radical revolutionaries pushing instability, John Howard with “work choices” and Thatcher with the poll tax. (more…)

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The other kind of trade union cuts battle: saving cost within Unite

18/01/2011, 11:29:42 AM

by Richard Horton

At the end of this month, Len McCluskey will officially become general secretary of Unite. The Simpson-Woodley or Woodley-Simpson era of joint leadership will pass. It will be the end of the union’s first post-merger era.

At face value, McCluskey will be inheriting a financially robust organisation. In 2009, the union recorded an operating surplus of £9,384,000 from the income it receives from its members. However, Unite has not been able to shield itself from the rigours of the credit crunch. It has been affected by the recession as much as any other body. For instance, in 2008 it had to write down the value of its properties and investments to the extent that it recorded a deficit of £28,114,000. While even now the union’s cash flow is being negatively impacted by an increase in its net pension liability – which is affecting almost every organisation that sponsors final salary pension schemes.

The merger of amicus and the T&G in 2007 was heralded as a means of generating greater industrial and political benefits for the membership of the two unions. Cost savings would be captured through the merging of two sets of staff, two sets of properties and two sets of campaigning operations. Beyond anything, cost savings would be captured through the sheer scale of the new union. Unite would be more efficient as an organisation and therefore more efficient in campaigning for its membership. (more…)

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In its proponents’ own terms, AV is just soft porn and repeats of Minder

18/01/2011, 07:00:03 AM

by Kevin Meagher

At this time of year, it’s chilly up there on the moral high ground. But that isn’t stopping Yes campaigners for May’s referendum on the alternative vote (AV) donning their bobble hats and clambering up to pitch their tents.

They are doubtless buoyed by a poll in yesterday’s Independent on Sunday which showed 61 per cent of the electorate “could be persuaded” to make the change from first-past-the-post to AV.

This led some chap called Jonathan Bartley from the Yes to Fairer Votes campaign, to write to former Labour deputy leader, Margaret Beckett (who is President of No to AV) to demand “in sorrow rather than anger” that they hear “truthful and honest arguments” for the retention of FPTP in future.

That’s you told, Marge.

For huffy Yes-ers like Mr. Bartley, those staying loyal to our current first past the post (FPTP) system are “defending the indefensible”. FPTP, they argue, is “an analogue system in a digital age”. A strange comparison, I would have thought. Digital television is full of soft porn, repeats of Minder and shopping channels auctioning crappy jewellery. (more…)

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Dear Ed, remember that party members are not normal

17/01/2011, 01:46:28 PM

by Tom Harris

Dear Ed,

2011 will be a tough year for you and for our party.

Remember when we last spoke, you asked me what I thought we needed to do in order to win the next election? Having given the subject some thought since then, I think I can now flesh out my original, admittedly unsatisfying, response of “win more seats than the Tories”.

Before being able to answer your question, however, it seems sensible to ask why we lost the last election. A recent YouGov poll of ordinary voters concluded that the three main reasons were Labour’s record on immigration, the damage the recession did to our economic credibility, and the personal unpopularity of your predecessor, Gordon Brown.

However, YouGov asked the same question of Labour party members, and the answers were significantly different. Neither Gordon Brown nor immigration figured prominently in their responses; instead they cited becoming out of touch with ordinary voters and failing to do enough to help its natural working-class supporters (although they agreed that the recession was an important factor). (more…)

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Fixed term parliaments means maximum two-term prime ministers

17/01/2011, 07:00:55 AM

by John Woodcock

David Cameron’s days as prime minister are numbered. But Ed Miliband is not going to last in the top job as long as Tony Blair did.

It is not that I have been afflicted with a career-limiting combination of nostalgia for past Labour leaders and naïve over-enthusiasm after a single by-election win.

My predictions on the longevity of the current prime minister and his would-be successor stem in fact from a little-considered consequence of fixed term parliaments: namely, that they may well unintentionally place a US-style two-term limit on anyone’s stay at number ten. (And before anyone starts, I am not saying that I think Mr Cameron is on course for a win in 2015. He is not).

But let’s assume for a moment that governments will not generally collapse mid-term and trigger unexpected early elections. For all the trauma currently being experienced by the Liberal Democrats, those at the top are strapped into their ministerial priuses so securely that it is very hard to see them breaking away early. (more…)

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The Sunday Review: Obama’s Arizona speech

16/01/2011, 02:30:01 PM

by Anthony Painter

On a chilly April night in 1968, America’s second greatest poet-warrior in modern times climbed onto the back of a truck and gave a speech of transcendent power in the aftermath of the assassination of its greatest poet-warrior. Largely ad-libbed, Robert F Kennedy defined the moment, eschewing violence and outrage in favour of hope and healing.

“What we need in the United States is not division; what we need in the United States is not hatred; what we need in the United States is not violence and lawlessness, but is love, and wisdom, and compassion toward one another, and a feeling of justice toward those who still suffer within our country, whether they be white or whether they be black”.

The words could almost have been uttered by Martin Luther King himself. Perhaps in a strange way they were channeled through King – at a conceptual level at least. The theatre of modern politics is less chaotic, more stage-managed, and more crafted. Even in the context of higher production values, words can retain their moral force. President Obama’s challenge in the University of Arizona on Wednesday was to comfort a moment of national tragedy and set a new course. He did so and reminded the US of his poet warrior status at the same time. (more…)

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Ruthless, brutal, heartless: our attacks are music to Tory ears

15/01/2011, 10:23:16 AM

by Dan Hodges

The trouble with politics is there’s never a ragin’ Cajun around when you need one.

Ed Miliband has begun the New Year by springing from his corner with the speed and ferocity of Jake LaMotta. Cameron and Clegg have been pinned to the ropes as the punches rain down. VAT. Banker’s bonuses. Oldham. One killer blow and they’ll be eating canvass.

But something’s holding Raging Ed back. The final hay maker feels heavy in the glove. For some reason, he can’t quite put them down.

James Carville would know the reason. Bill Clinton’s campaign manager had the answer to every political conundrum. And it was the same answer. “It’s the economy, stupid”.

Ever since the graphic, “Conservatives retain Basildon”, flashed across our television screens that cold morning in 1992, Labour strategists have held one truth to be self evident. The party that is not trusted to run the economy will not be entrusted with running the country.

Bill Clinton’s election victory later that year confirmed it. For the first time for over two decades a progressive party had taken on the right, and bested them, by selecting the economy as their battleground. As we watch Barack Obama move to heal his nation, and look back wistfully at three consecutive election wins, it’s easy to forget the significance of that victory.

But some have forgotten. To them it’s no longer “the economy stupid”. Now, it’s “the cuts stupid”. Polly Toynbee’s “red carpet of opportunity” lies enticingly before us. As the Tory led coalition scythes through our public services a terrified electorate prepares to leap gratefully into the arms of their Labour protectors.

Possibly. The Lib Dem’s are already in free fall as a result of their cynical act of appeasement. The Tories cannot indefinitely defy the laws of political gravity. Ultimately, the cuts will take a toll of the architects as well as the victims.

But a word of warning: if we have learnt anything about this Government it is that their callousness is underpinned by a low cunning. Cameron and Osborne are not fools. They have a strategy. And we are playing to it.

Ruthlessness implies competence. Brutality; strength. Heartlessness; decisiveness. (more…)

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Oldham win lifts Labour out of relegation zone

14/01/2011, 07:00:32 AM

by Atul Hatwal

It’s a tough stage of the season in both football and politics. The threat of relegation stalks struggling teams. Managers are desperate for some breathing space. Only one thing can help: a win. Every game is like a cup final.

Last night Ed Miliband lifted the coveted Oldham East and Saddleworth cup. For once, the morning’s newspapers provide decent reading for Labour. There will be no need for hastily arranged media interviews to stamp on rumours about losing the dressing room. Victory has bought the Labour leadership time.

The question is: how will they use it?

Learning from a win can be difficult. The temptation is to take it as a vindication of all that has gone before. But booking the open-top bus would be premature. There is plenty of cause for caution.

Recent polls paint a picture of an electorate that has not changed its mind on the fundamentals since the election. 40% of people think that the cuts are Labour’s fault. 52% think that they are necessary.

The most relevant polling is on the impact of the cuts. 51% believe the cuts will only affect their family’s income a little and 16% not at all. 63% do not think their job is at risk.

Two-thirds of the electorate think that it’s all going to be ok. (more…)

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