UNCUT: John Woodcock’s sober predictions for 2011

20/12/2010, 07:00:02 AM

by John Woodcock

For those who wish to ensure that festive cheer does not cloud their senses, here are some fairly sober predictions for 2011:

1. Labour councillors and activists will pull out all the stops for the May elections and make significant gains. So far – so optimistic. But this success will make some think we are already at the “one last heave” stage. When in fact we will only be making our way out of base camp. As the cuts begin to bite, it will be tempting to mistake the uncertainty felt towards the Tories for people renewing their bond with Labour. Such a misinterpretation is likely to be our biggest barrier to having the conviction to make the difficult decisions needed to win back the public’s trust.

2. Ed Miliband will not be among those falling into that trap. In one crucial respect, he will continue to think about the cuts programme in the same way as does the Tory leadership. While the public’s perception of what is happening now is hugely important, both David Cameron and our leader understand that cuts will have been implemented at the time of the next election. So the main debate, as the country goes to the polls, will be where we go from 2015. Not whether there might have been a better way of getting from 2010 to 2015. Read the rest of this entry »

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UNBOUND: Monday News Review

20/12/2010, 06:50:32 AM

School sports U-turn

Education Secretary Michael Gove will today confirm a £70m funding reprieve from cuts to School Sports Partnerships, saving the jobs of 2,000 school sports coordinators and support staff. The move follows a high profile campaign supported by Olympic athletes, sports personalities and Shadow Education Secretary, Andy Burnham. David Cameron stepped in after Conservative MPs warned cuts to sport would be detrimental to the Government’s image ahead of the 2012 Olympics. – PoliticsHome

Cameron & Osborne are wrong. The IFS is right

Cameron and Osborne have contemptuously dismissed the just-published predictions by the independent Institute for Fiscal Studies. Based on complex modelling and government policies, the IFS forecasts that over the next four years both relative and absolute poverty will rise for children and work-age adults – between 800,000 to 900,000 are expected to be affected. A designer who makes stupidly expensive handbags, Anya Hindmarch, now a government business champion, said recently that she quite liked recessions – or “clean-up times. That is how this lot think. The Chancellor says airily that their cuts and “reforms” will have “… no measurable impact on child poverty over the next two years”. Believe that and you really believe in a white-haired, beardy bloke comes down chimneys bringing sackfuls of pressies. The real plan was revealed by insider MP Nicholas Boles this week. It is to create a “chaotic” environment where, presumably, the fittest make it. – Independent

Strike warning

The UK faces the prospect of widespread and co-ordinated industrial action in the new year, with the leader of the largest trade union today warning that it is “preparing for battle” with the government over its “unprecedented assault” on the welfare state. Len McCluskey, the newly elected leader of Unite, says union leaders will be holding a special meeting in January to discuss a “broad strike movement” to stop what he described as the coalition’s “explicitly ideological” programme of cuts. Writing in the Guardian, McCluskey praises the “magnificent student movement” that has seen tens of thousands of young people take to the streets to protest at the government’s plans for post-16 education, saying it has put trade unions“on the spot”. “Their mass protests against the tuition fees increase have refreshed the political parts a hundred debates, conferences and resolutions could not reach,” he said. – The Guardian

White out

Labour spokesmen, such as shadow chancellor Alan Johnson, have been accused of political opportunism because they are asking if the government is doing enough to deal with the snow. Johnson’s critics are missing the point — of course there is opportunism involved. The  Tories know this, and used to do the same themselves during snow, floods etc. There isn’t all that much fun to be had in opposition, but after 13 years of being the party that had to produce spokesmen to go on TV to look out of touch Labour is currently enjoying playing “I blame the government”. There aren’t all that many votes in it when something like the weather is involved (unless there is obvious incompetence, as there was with the SNP’s  transport minister who had to resign). But apply the right kind of pressure — as the street-wise Johnson is — and all kinds of temporary havoc can be created in a government. – Wall Street Journal Read the rest of this entry »

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GRASSROOTS: Which is worse: work or welfare?

19/12/2010, 10:30:21 AM

by Robin Thorpe

The viability of full-employment has been debated since the industrial revolution. Ever since we began replacing human labour with machines, people have sought to create more efficiency in the workplace. Agriculture, manufacturing and construction now need fewer operatives to generate a higher yield. Individuals are increasingly employed in offices and call-centres dealing with the flow of information and money. Those without the skills or opportunities for this type of work are supported by the community as part of a philanthropic welfare state.

The Tory-Lib Dem government seems to have decided that the burden of welfare is too great and that work should be made “more attractive”. This ideological goal is to be achieved by reducing the extent of benefits available to the unemployed (whether through ill-health, redundancy or lack of skills). However, the reality is that often, although not exclusively, people would prefer to be in work, but do not have the opportunity.

At the same time as cutting benefits, the government has chosen to reduce the funding allocation of local authorities, universities, police, military and other public sector employers. These cuts will increase unemployment. The NHS is also being asked to make efficiency savings, which again will probably result in higher unemployment. And further private sector redundancies could arise in businesses that rely on public sector contracts. A by-product of high unemployment is an increase in the welfare bill. Read the rest of this entry »

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UNBOUND: Sunday News Review

19/12/2010, 09:29:10 AM

Cameron tells activists to hold back

The Prime Minister called off a planned campaigning push in the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election in order to boost Liberal Democrat chances, this newspaper can reveal. Mr Cameron secretly instructed activists not to undertake a major leafleting drive because of fears the party could do so badly in the by-election next month it could destabilise Mr Clegg. As support appears to drain away from the Lib Dems, two of the party’s prominent backers – Bella Freud, the fashion designer, and Kate Mosse, the author – told The Sunday Telegraph they were no longer supporting it. The embarrassment comes days after Colin Firth, the actor, announced that he was leaving the party. On Saturday a senior Liberal Democrat councillor put the coalition under fresh strain by calling two senior Tory ministers “Laurel and Hardy”. – The Telegraph

The big overnight Old & Sad story is a report from Melissa Kite in the Sunday Telegraph saying that David Cameron personally asked party activists in the seat not to campaign too hard in order to help his coalition partner, the Lib Dems. As can be seen from the general election above the constituency is very much a three-way marginal that was won by Phil Woolas on less than a third of votes cast only 103 ahead of Elwyn Wilkins – the man who was to take the former Labour immigration minister to court. But the Tories were not that far behind and must have been in with a fair chance had they mounted a robust campaign – a move that could have had big consequences for the coalition. Cameron has apparently decided that beating Labour is the key objective and his statements on Friday are just about as far as he can go in suggesting that his party’s supporters should vote tactically. – PoliticalBetting

No more “coalition”

Ed Miliband has banned the shadow cabinet from using the word “coalition” to describe the government because it sounds too moderate and reasonable, and fails to convey what he says is its true “ideological, rightwing agenda”. In a memo to his front-bench team, obtained by the Observer, the Labourleader’s director of policy, Greg Beales, says that from now on they must use the term “Conservative-led government” to describe the alliance of Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. “This is not a partnership and it is not a centre-ground coalition,” the memo says. “To highlight this, we are changing how we talk about the government. It is wrong to talk about their policies as coalition policies when so many are right-wing Conservative ideas.” – The Observer

Lib Dems continue poll decline

LABOUR have kept their lead over the Tories as the Lib Dems slumped to a new low, our exclusive poll shows today. The ComRes/Sunday Mirror survey puts Labour down one point at 39 per cent, ahead of the Tories who are up one point at 37 per cent. Nick Clegg’s Lib Dems also dropped one point to just 11 per cent – their lowest rating since the start of the ComRes poll in 2004. The Lib Dems have now lost more than half of the people who voted for them in May. The findings follow a week of bad news for the Government, which saw the jobless total rise by 35,000 to 2.5m and the cost of basic goods soar in the shops by 4.7pc. But it got even worse for Mr Clegg. Almost half of those quizzed did not believe he was doing a good job as leader after he failed to unite Lib Dem MPs over tuition fees. Just over one in four supporters thought he was doing well. – The Mirror

David leaves the door open

Aside from his constituency work in South Shields and his desire to stay in touch with foreign policy, what will he do with his time? For the merest moment, he looks confused. “Once you take away good dad, good husband, good politician…” Well, what about books and films? What is he reading? “I’m reading an incredibly frightening murder mystery by someone called Longbow or Legbow.” Does he mean The Snowman by the Norwegian writer Jo Nesbø? “Yes! That’s it. And someone gave me Jonathan Franzen’s book, so that’s nice. We downloaded a film the other day. Now, what was it? ProbablyPeppa Pig or something. Ah. I know. It was an episode of Mad Men. Bit out of date. Sorry. But we’re catching up.” There is something slightly forlorn about this wild clutching at cultural straws. My strong feeling is that the drama that began last spring, when Ed Miliband so dramatically entered the race for the Labour leadership, is not over yet. There will be a second act. David, of course, won’t comment. But nor, in spite of my best efforts, can he be persuaded to rule himself out. “I don’t want to think about being an ex-something,” he says. “I’d much rather think about being a future something.” – The Observer

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GRASSROOTS: Browne was wrong. A graduate tax is fair.

18/12/2010, 12:30:22 PM

by Dan Howells

I felt numb last week. As I did in 2005 when “top-up” fees were passed through Parliament under a Labour government. It felt then, as it did last week, that an ever-growing price tag on education presented a much larger barrier for pupils from the poorest backgrounds.

But there is a difference between last week’s reforms and those of 2005. Five years ago, record numbers of young people were attending university. This was coupled with record government investment in higher education institutions (HEIs). Under Tory-Lib Dem plans, record student fees are combined with massive cuts to the teaching budgets of our universities. Bowne says that his “proposals introduce more investment for higher education. HEIs must persuade students that they should ‘pay more’ in order to ‘get more’. The money will follow the student”. With record cuts to teaching budgets, I wonder how exactly will students get more?

I work in schools and have spoken to many pupils who are considering applying to university in the next few years. Not one has said to me that with these reforms they are more likely to go to university.

This begs the question: is there a better way? Read the rest of this entry »

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HOME: The week Uncut

18/12/2010, 10:30:18 AM

In case you missed them, these were the best read pieces on Uncut in the last seven days:

Tom Watson offers a Christmas toast to the leader

Michael Dugher says replacing nanny with nudge is no joke

Dan Hodges interviews the shadow defence secretary, Jim Murphy

Stella Creasy says together we can make the government act on legal loan sharking

Peter Watt says that we don’t have the time to be rational

Kevin Meagher thinks Coronation Street is a Tory conspiracy

Tory local government leader lets slip contempt for the north

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UNBOUND: Saturday News Review

18/12/2010, 09:12:04 AM

Government’s immigration policy “chaos”

A temporary cap on the number of skilled workers from outside the EU allowed into the UK was introduced “unlawfully”, the High Court has ruled. Home Secretary Theresa May introduced the cap this summer as an interim measure ahead of a permanent cap. But a legal challenge to it was upheld with judges ruling that ministers had “sidestepped” Parliamentary scrutiny. The Home Office said this did not imperil its flagship immigration policy but Labour said it was in “chaos”. The BBC’s Home Affairs Correspondent Danny Shaw said the ruling was an embarrassment and a setback for the coalition but was not a fatal blow to its plan for a permanent cap on non-EU migration. – BBC

Critics say the ruling is important for British business as the current cap is damaging industry in the UK. The changes were deliberately intended to give the minister flexibility and the ability to change the numbers allowed in to work, without having to go before Parliament for scrutiny. Lord Justice Sullivan said: “The Secretary of State made no secret of her intentions. There can be no doubt that she was attempting to sidestep provisions for Parliamentary scrutiny set up under provisions of the 1971 Immigration Act, and her attempt was for that reason unlawful.” The changes introduced were substantive and should have been laid before Parliament, he said. – Press Association

Actress files dossier on hacking

The past week has seen several more twists in the Andy Coulson saga. Far from resolving the allegations surrounding the UK prime minister’s principal media adviser, they have only served to muddy the waters further… There remains a need for a deeper inquiry. An independent review of the police investigations would be a start. The Miller claim also raises questions about News International. Its executives have told a parliamentary committee that only one journalist was involved in the hacking. Ms Miller’s dossier casts doubt on this. Mr Coulson’s position is not untenable. It may be true that, as he claims, he was unaware of what his staff were up to. He made that claim again this week – under oath as a witness in the perjury trial of a former Scottish politician. But while the drip of claim and counter-claim continues, this affair cannot be put to rest. And without a resolution, it will continue to undermine Mr Coulson’s credibility and, by extension, that of the prime minister. – The FT

The document suggests that the hacking of the two actors was part of a wider scheme, hatched early in 2005, when Mulcaire agreed to use ”electronic intelligence and eavesdropping” to supply the paper with daily transcripts of the messages of a list of named targets from the worlds of politics, royalty and entertainment. The evidence explicitly contradicts the account of the News of the World and its former editor Andy Coulson, who is now chief media adviser to Prime Minister David Cameron. They claimed that Goodman was the only journalist involved in phone hacking. He and Mulcaire were jailed in 2007. The disclosure is embarrassing for Scotland Yard, which has held a large cache of evidence for more than four years but failed to investigate it. – Sydney Morning Herald

Cameron discourages Tories in Oldham East

The best tactic for beating Labour might seem to be for the Tories quietly to encourage their supporters to fall in behind Mr Watkins. However, his share of the vote fell in 2010. The reason the contest was so close was that a chunk of the Labour vote defected to the Tory, Kashif Ali. With the Lib Dems in trouble nationally, many of the Tories argue that Mr Ali is the more credible challenger. So they will not have been pleased to hear what David Cameron had to say yesterday: “The context of the by-election is that the MP elected at the election has been found in court to have told complete untruths about his opponent… In that context, we wish our partners well. They had an extremely tough time. All the unfairnesses and untruths about their candidate [Mr Watkins] – he’s now been exonerated. So of course I wish them well.” He did not sound like a leader intent on victory. – The Independent

The prime minister yesterday appeared to slacken Conservative resolve in the forthcoming Oldham East and Saddleworth byelection, doling out generous words for the Lib Dems’ election effort. Liberal Democrats have been canvassing hard in the constituency for the seven months since the general election victory there by Labour‘sPhil Woolas, which they immediately set about contesting. Nick Clegg’s party missed out on the seat by just 104 votes in May, but the result was declared void last month by an election court that found that Woolas had made false statements about his Lib Dem rival Elwyn Watkins. This week, the Liberal Democrats defied convention to call the date of the byelection, when it is usually the incumbent party who move the writ. – The Guardian

What a principled bunch

Nick Clegg’s position should be understood and forgiven. He is instinctively a conservative, and he should not be blamed for following his heart and head. It is the so-called progressives who have betrayed what they once insisted were their principles. A half-hearted revolt over student fees is not enough to salvage their reputation. Nor is Simon Hughes’s occasional grand-standing about coalition policies that he never actually opposes. No Lib Dem who was offered a place in the government declined to serve. No groups have been formed within the party to oppose the coalition in principle. Danny Alexander is the boy who stands on George Osborne’s burning deck and Vince Cable is the self-appointed captain of David Cameron’s praetorian guard. – The Guardian

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UNCUT: Music. Celtic. Rome. Dan Hodges interviews Jim Murphy

17/12/2010, 12:00:44 PM

by Dan Hodges???

To the untrained eye, Jim Murphy’s office shuns convention. A guitar propped  casually in the corner. Football memorabilia on prominent display. A large framed photograph of  America’s first Roman catholic president, Jack Kennedy.

Uncut knows better. Music. Celtic. Rome. The holy trinity of the Scottish left.

At a time of upheaval in the party and the country, Labour’s shadow defence secretary is radically conformist. While Ed Miliband was meeting  the teenage leaders of the EMA protest, Jim Murphy was rubbing shoulders with some of the stiffest collars in Westminster. Read the rest of this entry »

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UNCUT: Coronation Street is a Tory conspiracy

17/12/2010, 07:00:20 AM

by Kevin Meagher

The cobbled streets of Weatherfield have never been fertile ground for Labour.

In fact, the residents of those pre-WW1 terraces do not seem to have any political opinions at all. Neither do they gossip about the weather, football, or indeed, television. But that’s Coronation Street for you. A tale of everyday folk that’s nothing like the tale of everyday folk.

As it chalks up its half century, the truth is that Corrie has always been slyly political. Rather than a paean to Labourism, however, it is a bastion of petit bourgeois Tory values.

The small businessman does no wrong. The humble worker is always the pig-headed architect of his or her own woes. The poor are usually loveable buffoons. Simpletons like Tyrone. Bone-idle shirkers like Jack Duckworth. Harridans like his wife Vera. Feckless dole dossers like Les Battersby. Read the rest of this entry »

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UNBOUND: Friday News Review

17/12/2010, 06:59:42 AM

Government tax and benefits cuts dragging people in to poverty

Hundreds of thousands of people will be dragged into poverty by the Government’s tax and benefit reforms, according to research. The respected Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) forecasts an overall rise in poverty among both children and working-age adults over the next three years. Its findings contradict Chancellor George Osborne’s claims that the spending review will not increase child poverty over the next two years. His claims were “totally unacceptable” and “disastrous”, according to campaign groups, who demanded a re-think of the coalition’s cuts programme. – Evening Standard

New forecasts from the Institute for Fiscal Studies show that the government’s claim that child poverty will not increase over the next two years as a result of changes announced in the Spending Review is broadly accurate. However, poverty among both children and working-age adults is likely to increase significantly from 2013/14. The IFS has projected the number of children and working age people that fall below both the absolute poverty line (measured at 60% of real terms median income for 2010/11) and relative poverty line (measured as 60% of the median income of that year). They give forecasts up to 2012/13 and up to 2013/14. – Left Foot Forward

Between 2010–11 and 2013–14 average incomes are forecast to stagnate and both absolute and relative poverty among children and working-age adults are expected to rise, according to projections published today by the Institute for Fiscal Studies. The IFS researchers forecast absolute and relative income poverty amongst children and working-age adults for each year to 2013–14, using a static tax and benefit micro-simulation model combined with official macroeconomic and demographic forecasts, taking into account current government policy. They also forecast poverty under a scenario where the coalition Government simply implemented the plans for the tax and benefit system it inherited from the previous administration. – Liberal Conspiracy Read the rest of this entry »

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