Down to the wire

Speculation is increasing that Ed Miliband, who began the race as a distant second favourite, could snatch victory from his older brother, David. Voting closed on Wednesday in the complicated electoral college race, where MPs and MEPs have one-third of the vote, with rank-and-file party members and up to three million trades unionists who pay a political fee to Labour sharing the rest. While the result is still unclear, it is evident that the older Miliband has lost much, if not all, of the early lead he enjoyed in the race. The race has been notoriously difficult to poll, but British bookmakers Betfair declared the younger Miliband as favourite for the first time yesterday morning, at 11-10 against 10-11 for his sibling, the shadow foreign secretary. – The Irish Times

All I can report is the state of speculation just hours before the big moment, which is that Ed has won. Apparently, David’s lead among the parliamentary third of Labour’s electoral college was not big enough to compensate for his relative weakness among the other two sections, which are ordinary party members and affiliated trades-union members. Of course, all this could be absolute guff – Westminster’s rumour mill is generally more active than accurate – so don’t place any large wagers based on these whispers. We will know one way or the other very soon. – The Economist

Harriet: Don’t Walk away

Critics over the decades have derided the MP for Peckham as Harriet Harperson because of her feminist views. But the mum-of-three has won a reputation as one of Labour’s toughest fighters. Now she has a carefully thought-out message to whichever of the two Milibands emerges defeated from the brother-versus-brother battle to succeed her: Don’t walk away. Ms Harman, who is steelier and tougher than she comes across on TV or at the Commons despatch box, says the new party leader will be handed an “unprecedented” opportunity to get back into government. – The Mirror

What next?

LABOUR needs to give its membership a greater say over policy and recognise the growing popularity of community-based politics, Shadow Wales Office Minister Wayne David said last night. The Caerphilly MP said the party was mature enough to move away from the days when the leadership imposed policy – and discipline – from the top. During the Blair and Brown era Labour was often criticised for failing to consult the party on major policy changes and for using the party’s National Executive Committee to keep a tight grip on candidate selection. – The Western Mail

The new leader will have to be brave, including on policy. Bravery will involve talking again about genuinely devolving. Not a gesture, which actually results in more of the decision-making happening in Whitehall and Westminster; but, for instance, the establishment of regional and local banks. The idea (and Iain Duncan Smith is at least willing to think about this) of devolving the welfare budget – within sensible bounds of consistency – across the UK, so that money can be applied to preventing and redeeming, and not merely ameliorating, poverty. – David Blunkett, The Yorkshire Post

LABOUR risks its reputation for economic management if it is not “straightforward” on the need to make savings in the public sector, one of David Miliband’s key allies warns today ahead of today’s leadership election. Jim Murphy, the former Scottish secretary who has run the elder Miliband’s campaign, acknowledged that today’s decision, due at 4pm, was on a knife-edge, with bookmakers now placing younger brother Ed as the odds-on favourite.But Mr Murphy said that whoever wins today, the party needed to stop “talking to itself” and also to stop “shouting at the public”. Instead, he said Labour needed to accept that voters had decided it had taken a wrong turn. – The Scotsman