by Kevin Meagher
“When the facts change, I change my mind” remarked the great John Maynard Keynes. Easy for economists. As George Bernard Shaw noted, if you laid them all end to end they still could not reach a conclusion.
Chancellors, on the other hand, cannot readily change their minds. They have to come to a conclusion; and then they have to stick to it. Their personal judgement is indelibly stamped on the government’s macroeconomic policy. They are locked into their strategies and directions of travel. Any deviation risks a fatal leaching of trust and credibility.
Of course, nothing changes with economic policy until it all changes. Which begs the question: does George Osborne have a Plan B in case the economy runs out of puff?
If he does, he’s not telling. Hardly surprising really; chancellors cannot be “a little bit pregnant”. It’s either one plan or the other.
Either way, Osborne is no slouch. He knows the economic outlook is precarious. And whatever else he is, the chancellor is a politician first and foremost. Economics – the dismal science, according to Carlyle – is a second order priority for him. He knows that the ice beneath his feet is thinning and he does not intend to sink.
If growth falters and requires a revision in policy, Osborne cannot afford for it to be on his watch. Although it would kill him to do so, he should heed Gordon Brown’s warning: there are two sorts of chancellor: those who fail and those who get out in time.








