by Atul Hatwal
It sounds absurd, how can Labour be level pegging with the Tories? The government has just smashed Labour at the May elections and regularly registers double digit leads in opinion polls. All true but we are also emerging from the long dark tunnel of the pandemic and if we look at the bounce in polling that governments have received in the past, as the country exits’ crises, there are reasonable grounds to believe Labour’s underlying position is a lot stronger than the current polls.
Rewind to the financial crash of 2008; in the year preceding the crisis the Labour government’s polling was abysmal – for the three months before the collapse of Lehman Brothers in mid-September 2008, the average Tory lead was 19.5%.
By December, as the various global bailouts and interventions appeared to be working with the prospect of normality, or at least stability, beckoning, the average deficit for the Labour government through the month was 4.6%, an improvement of almost 15% on their pre-crash performance. In terms of a parallel, the country is in a similar phase at the moment – optimism and relief that whatever the government has done is having an impact with Britain on a path out of the darkness.
As we know, Labour’s poll improvement at the end of 2008 was not sustained, in the first six months of 2009, the average Tory poll lead was 14.2%, a rise of 9.6% on the position in December.
When trying to quantify the vaccine bounce, this is the key figure. This increase in opposition polling, a rise in the Tory lead over the government of 9.6% quantifies the shift in public opinion from the optimism of seeing the back of the crisis, from focusing so heavily on what the government is doing, to returning to everyday life.
Applied to today, depending on your pollster of choice, a 9.6% boost for the opposition would see Labour either narrowly ahead or narrowly behind the government. This probably better represents the underlying state of play than a snapshot of polls in a phase when the crisis bounce is at its highest for the government.
Not convinced?
Let’s wind the clock further back, almost 40 years to the Falklands war. From a contemporary perspective, a faraway dispute with Argentina over some small rocks in the South Atlantic might not seem comparable to the financial crash or the pandemic, but in the context of the time, it was a huge, all-consuming crisis which cut to the core of Britain’s identity and Mrs.Thatcher’s leadership.
In the 3 months preceding the Argentinian invasion at the start of April 1982, Labour was ahead, albeit with a smaller advantage compared to the previous year – the average lead for January to March 1982 was 2.5%.
Following the successful commando action to secure San Carlos Water in late May 1982, which opened the path for British soldiers to land and retake the main islands, the average Conservative lead was 22.2% for the remaining weeks of the war. It was a time when victory seemed likely and the country could see an end to the crisis. Once again, drawing a parallel with today, this is the most comparable phase to where we are (or at least hope we are) with the pandemic.
Argentine forces surrendered on the 14th June 1982 and in the six months following British victory, the average Conservative lead fell from 22.2% to 12%, a drop of 10.2%.
Again, this figure – 10.2% – is key in sizing today’s vaccine bounce: the fall in government support quantifies the change in public attitudes from the optimism of exiting the crisis intact to reverting to politics through the lens of normal life.
Whether the vaccine bounce enjoyed by Boris Johnson is 10%, a little higher or little lower, the precedents of the financial crash and the Falklands suggest an order of scale for the elevated ratings that the government is currently enjoying.
To an extent, it is obvious that government would receive a boost of this kind.
First, in a crisis, government policy becomes hugely salient to voters worried about the future. Second, the minimal space the public devote to politics becomes almost entirely occupied by the government and third the opposition tends to have to be supportive or at least muted in its criticism during the crisis.
As long as the crisis ends and the world doesn’t fall, the government will inevitably reap some poll benefit from the public’s relief.
The opinion polls are patently correct that the Conservatives have a commanding lead over Labour today but as the country returns to a new normal, so politics will become more conventional and with that the scale of the government’s lead is likely to fall.
Arguably, it’s problematic that 11 years into a Conservative government, even adjusting for the vaccine bounce still only leaves Labour level pegging rather than significantly ahead. But then, the journey back from December 2019, Labour’s worst general election result since the mid-1930s was never going to be a short hop and a skip.
Atul Hatwal is editor of Labour Uncut
Tags: Atul Hatwal, Falklands war, financial crash, Keir Starmer, vaccine bounce
The LibDems and Greens are getting a good “vaccine bounce” too. Or, could it just be that Starmer is a Tory-lite wet wipe?
There is no such thing as a vaccine bounce and there was no such thing as a Brexit bounce. What there is, is a choice between 2 political parties, one of which is in tune with the majority of people in this country who can see through nonsense. The other party hasn’t a clue what it stands for anymore, it’s front bench is the worst opposition i’ve seen in 40+ years and refuses to listen to the people of this country. There is no bounce, that’s just immature waffle and a convenient excuse that the Guardian Readers get off on. It’s time to grow up before the party becomes irrelevant.
The difference between previous times and today is the SNP and the growth in The Green Party – other times it was UKIP and then the Brexit Party. There is also the Lib/Dems. The Government can delay a second vote for independence in Scotland, but eventually it will happen, and more than likely they will succeed.
At the moment the Tories do have a good lead over Labour. No matter how many mistakes the government makes it just does not seem to matter with many people – perhaps they feel safe with the situation – would it be better under Labour.
Labour must provide that vision for the future – this takes time to do.
I would not be opposed to some form of Progressive Alliance with the Lib Dem’s and The Greens – in many ways this would form a fairer government with the best interests of the country.
“It sounds absurd”
That’s because it is.
1997 leading up to whether the UK would join euro, a Tory MP issued an election statement I will carefully listen to both sides of the argument on whether we should join the euro and then I will vote against it
Andrew Adonis now on blue labour strategy of trying to win back the working-class vote in the suburbs For the Labour Party
I could imagine him saying I will carefully listen to blue labours idea on whether we should try to win working-class vote back and then say no let’s just try and get more middle-class London Liberal Democrat votes
This was Mocked by John Prescott because what is the point of reading two sides of an argument when you’ve already made up your mind what to do and you decide to come down on one side already
The Batley contest historically bears striking similarity to the Darlington contest in March 1983. If Foot had lost it, he was going to resign and Denis Healey, the last of the ‘big beast’ Old Guard Gatskillite/Wilsonites would have been elected by the PLP.
As it was, Foot won, and Labour went on to be absolutely slaughtered at the following General Election 3 months later.
Bookies already ‘pricing in’ a Labour loss for Batley, and Yvette Cooper to replace Starmer in a straight fight between her and thick-as-mince Rayner in a shoddy attempt by Labour to force the outcome to be a female Leader. (it is already common knowledge that Rayner and Cooper hate each other. The PLP – being pragmatoc realists, would obviously back Cooper and try to return to ‘Blairism’. The membership & unions however, are a ‘wild card’)
Opinon Polls released so far for May:-
SavantaComRes, 30 Apr-02 May
Con: 40%
Lab: 36%
LDem: 8%
Grn: 4%
Oth: 12%
Redfield & Wilton, 03 May
Con: 40%
Lab: 38%
LDem 7%
Grn 5%
Oth: 10%
PanelBase, 04-05 May
Con: 45%
Lab: 36%
LDem 6%
Grn 5%
Oth: 8%
YouGov, 04-05 May
Con: 43%
Lab: 33%
LDem 6%
Grn 5%
Oth: 13%
(Local Election 08 May)
SavantaComRes, 07-09 May
Con: 42%
Lab: 34%
LDem 8%
Grn 4%
Oth: 12%
Redfield & Wilton, 10 May
Con: 45%
Lab: 34%
LDem 8%
Grn 5%
Oth: 8%
YouGov, 11-12 May
Con: 45%
Lab: 30%
LDem 7%
Grn 8%
Oth: 10%
Opinium, 13-14 May
Con: 44%
Lab: 31%
LDem 8%
Grn 7%
Oth: 10%
Find-Out-Now MRP, 13-15 May
Con: 43%
Lab: 30%
LDem 11%
Grn 9%
Oth: 7%
SavantaComRes, 14-16 May
Con: 43%
Lab: 32%
LDem: 8%
Grn: 5%
Oth: 12%
Redfield & Wilton, 17 May
Con: 42%
Lab: 33%
LDem 10%
Grn 6%
Oth: 9%
The day the McPherson report came out Trevor Philips said The Labour Party is institutionally racist as if automatically assumes black people vote labour
Despite 20 years of labour being told don’t make this assumption
Yesterday Diane Abbott said labour can win Thd forthcoming by election as labour gets the black vote despite there not being any such thing
As such Trevor Philips claim 22 years ago
Means if Diane Abbott stands by her view
The Labour Party is as much institutionally racist for assuming black people voted labour 22 years ago
As it is still institutionally racist for assuming the same thing now
One of the benefits of leaving the EU is the governments plans for the railways.
The Williams-Shapps plan would have certainly fallen foul of the relevant EU directive (the Single European Railway Directive) which directs that rail infrastructure and service provision has to be separated and run on a commercial basis with separate accounts.
“the journey back from December 2019 etc.”
This is an obituary. The Blairites who devoted the whole of Corbyn’s tenure to undermining the Labour Party are now trying to absolve themselves from responsibility for the electoral disaster they helped instigate.
This is why the Labour Party is finished. It’s not a matter of addressing what has gone wrong but of denying one’s responsibility while rushing for the door.
Quite right regarding Railways Tafia. Whilst many look to the EU model of greater state ownership in their railways this model is soon to be be updated with more…..yep, private sector integration. I am hoping the next step for the UK is a return to the pension age of 65 whilst the EU goes in the opposite direction.
Some statistics for you.
Of the 44 most vulnerable Labour seats today (Red Wall 2), 39 are outside of London and the south.
Skilled workers – the people that put Thatcher in power then put Blair in power, are the same people that put Cameron and then Johnson into power. They believe strongly in Britain, strongly in Brexit and are proud of British history. They regard Labour as totally and utterly untrustworthy over it’s Brexit aims no matter what it says now.
The Conservatives are more popular than Labour among people on low incomes while Labour is more popular among people on high incomes. The right is no longer the party of the rich and the left is no longer the party of the poor.
Only three Labour leaders have won majorities at elections and only one was born in the past 100 years.
For Labour to win the next election they will need about 125 seats without losing any, eclipsing the swings that Clement Attlee and Blair achieved in 1945 and 1997. Labour needs to be 12 points clear in the polls, surging through England. Today, it is 10 points behind and losing England.
The last time a Conservative was elected in this area, Cliff Richard topped the charts with Living Doll, Ben-Hur was in the cinema, Winston Churchill was still alive and Tony Blair was six.
The Tories not only captured Hartlepool after being in power for more than a decade, but did so with the sharpest increase in the vote for any incumbent government at a by-election in British postwar history. Hartlepool is now the 55th seat that the Conservatives have taken directly from Labour in the past two years, 51 of which voted for Brexit.
If only graduates were allowed to vote, Corbyn would have won in 2017 and still be PM today. (Not sure what they’re teaching at universities these days, but it certainly isn’t common sense and inteeligence is obviously not a requirement for entry).
The voters Labour need to win over, will not be seduced by a party that is not overtly patriotic, overtly proud of our history and culture, andoutspokenly has no aims or ambitions to slither back in to the Single Market or Customs Union.
I had word for word conversation Word for word Saying the same as this article 18 months ago with Paul Embery and A black lady I know from Greenwich from the Labour Party who did a pod cast with Another Black lady I know for the greens) who was listening to Paul Mason saying Keir Starmer could Unite the left wing of the party(corbynites) and the right wing(blairites) and I pointed out that would assume that there’s only 2 wings and that they’re totally different. they’ve got a lot more in common because I’m both sides would like to assume they’re both middle-class Guardian reading remain voters from London and his whole chunk of the Labour Party outside of London that are working-class, socially Conservative voted to leave and read the daily record of whom,the middle-class London liberals think are racist and bigoted and put this on Facebook and won’t even acknowledge these people exist and don’t care if they lose working class seats where they can have councillors” as long as they can sit around drinking glasses of wine with each other at meetings saying how much they will be like to be in a victim and Woke and virtue signalling they show to people who if they feel they’re hard done by they can treat them like pets
https://unherd.com/2021/05/labour-isnt-working/
there’s wings of the labour party who just want to dictate who are the ones who they allow to attend their meeting sand who are the ones who they want to have as speakers to discuss how they’re good people as they treat those they strive to get better lives for as victims and treat like they’re to be pitted, without ever getting anything like control of a council by getting labour councils out of it, its like bald men fighting over a comb ,The party by saying well I’d like them to treat you like a pet, Look after like a Doctor, as they’re the person the family trusts to go to be with as they’d seem to like them when ill, It’s making someone who may not be the majority in that area as a charity case.
in the 1980’s A lefty says “the daily mail are nazis and apartheid is bad” and the public says “I don’t think the daily mail are nazis maybe apartheid wasn’t bad?”
There’s African Caribbean Labour members in Greenwich are socially Conservative, yet the middle class liberals obsessed with de criminalising sex workers and everyone is non binary are looked on by the working class as nuts and when the Black members of Grrenwich labour say smack kids when they’re naught the middle class liberals look back at the African Caribbean Christian members saying this as if they’re nuts to
there’s tories who look at people and think why are people in the Labour party and can’t work out why we voted labour all be it the labour party of Herbert Morrison Attlee Gaitskell or Ernie Bevin he thinks we should all be in The Tories
I’m Not A labour person anymore but at the previous Labour Conference A delegate said it was fascistic to heckle try to stop the lgb alliance speaking at a side event outside When the hecklers were calling them calling it a hate group
If you lived in Clacton, Labour Came 3rd Ukip first, Tories 2nd and we had AV and voted Labour 1st choice The only way to stop Ukip is you vote Tory for your second choice to do it ,you’d have too, Admittedly you’d have a cold shower after wards ,it’s the same as labour must team up with the Tories to Keep Scotland in the UK
Criticising the libdems for splitting the tory vote is daft as by that definition The formation off The Labour Party was a mistake as it split the anti tory vote in the first place as The liberals were around first when Labour came into existence
when Labour was destroying itself in the 80’s it had a reason it still needed to have existed, People needed the Labour Party, yet it’s happy to be a protest group in the days if poverty And If the Labour Party was suggested to be created as if today It would be what a silly idea for such a organisation to be needed to be created ,the only reason labour would have now and there’s plenty of others is to say The quote there is no alternative is wrong, Austeriry, Is wrong and we cant be justifying A pay freeze and benefit cuts
What labour needs is someone with conviction Like a personality like they’re a rock star Press Say Who are were run we run gain the strongholds we have
And go away for this being a social club cosplaying a protest group–
the student politicians of today are the student politicians of tommorow – Maurice Glasman
Labour just says now The working-class are racist sexist and homophobic look at you like they want you to not stand in their way and if anyone is old labour they should stand down
Someone once Describe the SDP one but they’re all fighting for a better yesterday this reminds me of the Nick clegg fans who joined the labour party a year ago to back Keir Starmer
If anyone suggested crating a political party like the Labour Party today you’d say they were mad,
Until labour realise it was right the public were to reject us/them in the last three general elections it’ won’t win again
@The party obviously accepted the country was right to reject it in 2010
most people Like to win a game when they don’t want to get win again, but I hope the whole point Labour won’t want to win again it’s a moral victory just calling people racist and make out how woke we are to the point what’s the point of the party we have the Liberal Democrat for that I want labour to form a government should I don’t wanna be a protest group that doesn’t want to win
We had at the Fabians a liberal who’d quit in 1978 the Labour Party joined the liberals as he disagreed with the close shop,
now Roy Jenkins had approached David steel the Liberal leader in 1978 and said can I join the liberals and David steel said hang on a couple of years in the Labour party, I’ve got a feeling the Labour Party might split and form a new breakaway Democratic party after a few years I will persuade the two parties to merge but really it will be in the takeover and that party will really just be people joining the liberal party and example being had Bill Rogers when he quit as one of the breakaway four ,Known the merger of the SDP and Liberals would be been a take-over (as David Owen pointed out) and he might as well have joined the Liberal party something he would have never have done, he’d have never have just left the Labour Party and retired from Politics.
when The Liberals after the devastating defeat via Jeremy Thorpe in 1979 they were never serious about bieng a future Party of Government (excluding David steels 1981 Quote for the first time in 50 years go back to your constituencies are prepare for Government, Line) there was never any chance in 1983 or 87 of going in coalition and even then what would’ve been the side the SDP come down on, Owen felt if he’d held the balance of power he wouldn’t have sided with Labour, in 1992 when people thought it might have been a hung parliament Paddy Ashdown said he didn’t realise how much the public disliked Neil Kinnock the balance of power within the Commons he wasn’t to see it anyway
by 97 Tony blair didn’t think he would get an overall majority and would have to bring the Liberal Democrats in this would have upset the Labour Party so he felt if he had a coalition he’d have had to have brought Ken Livingstone in as Transport secretary
but again it wasn’t to be and The libdems knew for the next 13 years they wouldn’t see power, as such the Liberal Democrat party from 92 to right up to 2010 were happy not to want to be a party that was serious about forming power just as long as gradually over elections they increased the amount of MPs (1992)to be in the first year they’d got the most MPs of a third party since the war With a few exceptions with the orange book lot in 2010 who wanted power as they did it destroyed a party when they got it party now come to 2015, but then the path back to build power they knew their activists were the sort of Charles Kennedy socially liberal people trying to go into coalition with a more pro EU Tories and they know their voters second choice would be a pro EU tory party which could happen If the Tory leader was Like Savid Javid,and those who run Libdem HQ are orange bookers as is their leader Ed davey, but they know it would lose their final chance of getting back left wing votes for the greens and be the fourth party In UK politics if they went into power with the Tories again, as such the Lib Dems don’t want to get power they want to be a protest group as they did during most of their formation years,
Now this is like the Labour Party he doesn’t want power what’s the point of a politcal party that doesn’t want power ,but wants to be aprotest group, it’s asking it’s acitivsts will you go out and knock on the door speak to the pulbics and you’ll get abuse you’ll do fundraising have to waste your time Having meetings when you don’t want to get power and achieve anything other than being a protest group, this applies to the way it was out in the shires where its Middle class liberal Blairites and middle class Liberal corbynites fighting over who owns their constituency to make it their own so they can invite to talks having a meeting where they tell each other how Woke they are with virtue signalling speaking, to Pat each other on the back stating how politically correct they are in areas where Labour because they’ve been so complacent could have owned it for decades thinking that it doesn’t matter about increasing the majority so if they’re confident where they are they can then go to areas with a marginals as if they’ve got no MPs or councillors to help them win as long as they keep their own patch and it’s still there own tribe and invite A Jess Phillips or a virtue signalling type like clive Lewis showing how politically correct and right on they are
thinking it doesn’t matter they lost as long as they control the consitituency
thinking we’ve lost four general elections if we keep loing general elections it will be time for a change and the electorate will want us to take power because after six election defeats we deserve to win, but by that definition in Liverpool with the city council has been in labour hands for 70 years and we’ve got complacent about elections and made some errors, and the tories should have a right to say right Labour is been in power for 70 years it’s time for a change the public as such should vote for the tories and give them a right to run the council because otherwise we have a one party state on a council level in certain areas like Liverpool
Someone once Describe the SDP one but they’re all fighting for a better yesterday ,ex Liberal Democrats joined labour in 2020 with their FPPE on their T-shirts fond of Nick Clegg decided to join the Labour Party and voted with the Blairites for Kia Starmer aspire for the Labour Party to be like a protest group who don’t actually want power like the orange book Nick Clegg and if the Tory leader was Savid Javid they dream of another Tory LibDem government going back to the sort of liberal views David Cameron had circa 2011
A Grand coalition of David Cameron savage Javid Nick Clegg Davey Tony Blair Gordon Brown and Keir Starmer
Batley and Spen.
Labour have completed their shortlist, and delibertely left off two exceptionally good local candidates.
Instead, they have put two no-hopers vs Kim Leadbeater (Jo Cox’s sister) to make sure she wins, final vote tonight. (sunday night). A blatantly and transparently tawdry attempt to pretend it’s a free and fair selection when to all but a blind man without a guide dog it most certainly is not. She has only been a member a matter of weeks.
Is that all they’ve got left in Batley and Spen? Playing for sympathy?
I live a little bit down the M62. The local population expected as such and are not going to vote for Leadbetter as she was a Remain supporter, supports closer EU alignmet as the very least and the locals are not impressed by Labour’s cynicism using a murdered woman’s sister (who has only been a Labour member a matter of weeks) and total disrespect of their Leave vote.
As it stands, a woman who suffered a massive family tragedy is about to be very publicly ritually humiliated at the polls. (bookies have it 70% likely to go Tory).
Labour are still not grasping this. The Labour Leavers up in the Red Wall ARE NOT going to vote for a Labour Party that is still toying with closer ties to the EU, closer alignment, re-joining the CU/SM and resurecting Freedom Of Movement. It isn’t going to happen and Labour strategists who think otherwise are blatantly incapable of doing their jobs. Labour Leavers are not going to vote for a party that foists Remain-oriented candidates on them, and that is all there is to it.
And she better be prepared for this being very very nasty. Galloway is standing, but more importantly, besides the EU, the main thing here is not Covid- it’s the grooming gangs (this is one of the areas hit) and Labour’s involvement in turning a blind eye, and refusing to support automatic deportation of the convicted.
Following on from Tafia – our students must be very short on research skills: these are the now famous (infamous) Glastonbury Jeremy cult – so politically aware were they that they had no idea that their beloved Jeremy had been anti-Common Market/EU all of his political career.
One would think that all those clever political analysts would work out that once the pro-EU cult spotted their mistake that it was inevitable that they would migrate their votes to Green or LibDem.
There’s nothing else that needs saying regarding Labour’s decline – most has been said; except one thing.
I’m white English – my demographic is in decline, and it seems it is to be sneered at and demonised as it disappears.
I have not heard one single Labour MP emerge to condemn the word ‘Gammon’. In these identity-obsessed times – where pronouns and race are of tantamount importance, it seems – nothing is said about the demonising of older white people.
With the mental wellbeing of our people being constantly discussed, nobody seems to be talking about the disappearance of the people who actually built the labour movement – other than to call them “bigoted”.
I am supposed to think myself privileged – although, I remember there being no fridges or freezers when I was young; nor washing machines, driers, or central heating – and the toilet was at the bottom of the garden.
I also remember toolbox talks that eventually led to Acts of Parliament that protected UK workers: something the old Labour Party and unions fought for – now accredited to some overblown quango in Brussels that the Labour Party and unions now seem to worship.
Apart from our Jeremy and the baggage he carries around, and just in case you think me a full-blown racists, I’ll leave you with a quote from a Blair advisor: “It is the professional middle classes, together with the young, and black and minority ethnic voters, who are Labour’s base now”. Lovely chap, Mr McTernan – brushes away my demographic as if we were crumbs on a table.
I’m just waiting for certain conservative religious beliefs to kick in – opposing the much-discussed ‘woke’ culture – and another ice sheet of votes shear off and float away.
I suppose that I should have a sense of schadenfreude – I just feel massive loss.
As expected, Labour selcted Kim Leadbeater to be it’s next defeated candidate. In choosing her as its candidate, Batley and Spen Labour party waived the normal rules, which usually demand candidates are a member for at least a year before standing for office. By 50 weeks.
GE2019
Brabin (Lab) 22,594
Brooks (Con) 19,069
Halloran (UKIP/Heavy Woollen Dist Ind) 6,432
Lawson (LDem) 2,462
Minihan (BXP) 1,678
Akram (Grn) 692
(pro-Brexit 27,179, anti Brexit 25,748)
EU Ref
Leave 59.63%
Remain 40.37%
With any other electorate – we’d be twenty points ahead..!
In 70 days time it’ll be 10 years since armed mix race drug dealer Mark Duggan in his way to shoot dead a (100% black man )was lawfully killed and shot dead by our brave cops
Saving the life of a 100% black man duggan was on his way to shoot dead,
Whom owes his life to our brave police.
Yet this will be reported racist white cops murdered( as in unlawfully killed a black even though he was half white man
The suggestion that Libdem/ green /Plaid stood down in favour of each other in 2019 there was a lot of plaid voters who were brexiters who vote plaid like there are SNP voters who don’t want to actually break from. The UK
The suggestion that Libdem/ green /Plaid stood down in favour of each other in 2019
That actually happened in all bar one welsh seat (Ceredigion), where two or mor of them wanted to stand. It backfired quite badly. Why would a Plaid voter vote for a unionist party? Why would a LibDem/Green voter vote for an independence party? And as you point out, why would a Plaid Leave voter (around a third of Plaid’s voters voted leave) vote for a second vote party?
They wouldn’t and they didn’t – and it shows the utter ignorance and arrogance of these parties to assume they would
This guy is spot on https://youtu.be/PvfGRr0Acks