by Jonathan Todd
We are living a year of destiny. Lives of Armageddon or awesome await today’s children. With their fates determined by 2024’s decisions, as I wrote at the end of last year.
There have been positives so far. Narendra Modi denied an outright majority in India. Jordan Bardella not being France’s prime minister. Keir Starmer becoming our prime minister.
There have also been successes away from the ballot box. Months of congressional gridlock were broken in April to unlock a foreign aid package from the United States government that included over $60bn to replenish Ukraine’s military.
“If [Vladimir] Putin triumphs in Ukraine, the next move of Russian forces could very well be a direct attack on a NATO ally,” President Biden said when signing this legislation. “We’d have no choice but to come to their aid.”
President Biden has enjoyed many other successes. For example, during his presidency, the build out of utility-scale solar in Texas (famous for Big Oil) has overtaken the installed capacity in California (famous for climate concern). Biden’s IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) has put America on a trajectory to achieve a low carbon share of electricity generation of 70-80 percent by 2035 – compared to 50-55 percent without the IRA.
These encouraging statistics come from Adam Tooze. Who concludes, however, “a key test of Biden-era climate and industrial policy will be whether it can untie the local political economy of fossil fuels, which, across many regions of the United States still stands in the way of a green energy transition that now has all the force of economics and technological advantage on its side”.
Biden deserves immense credit for winning the presidency in 2020 and for what he has achieved from the White House, including NATO’s resourcing of Ukraine and an acceleration of America’s green energy revolution.
Tragically, however, these gains could easily be reversed. Donald Trump is now favourite to recover the presidency in November. He is then likely to reverse the crucial, yet partial, victories of Biden on Ukraine and green energy. And rename many of the 60,000 infrastructure projects enabled by Biden’s Infrastructure Act in his own honour – as speculated on at end of the latest Past, Present, Future podcast.
Recent weeks could not have been better scripted for Trump. He survived an assassination attempt and remade the Republican party in his image – with one-time opponents, such as JD Vance, Nikki Haley, and Ron DeSantis, expressing fidelity at the Republication Convention. Biden, in disturbing contrast, could not deliver the pace and quality of campaigning and media events needed to reverse the losing trajectory evident in his polling.
The message from focus groups and polling was clear: America did not believe that 81-year-old Biden could serve another four years. This lack of confidence in Biden was driving a massive enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats: the Republican base is going to turn out for Trump, while the Democratic base was not going to for Biden. Because Biden had lost so much support among key Democratic demographics – Black, Hispanic, young. Key swing states were, consequently, all decisively moving to Trump.
By ending his candidacy for re-election, Biden has wisely recognised these realities and acted to give the Democrats the best chance of beating Trump and securing his legacy.
Kamala Harris, with endorsements from Biden and other powerful Democrats, is now likely to become the Democratic nominee.
Trump was winning a race with reality bending to his narrative: Strength (Trump) v Weakness (Biden). This was a grim confirmation of a Clintonian axiom: strong and wrong beats weak and right.
Harris must now convincingly repeat Bill Clinton’s words on accepting the Democratic nomination in 1996: “The real choice is whether we will build a bridge to the future or a bridge to the past.”
The race is now a test of what Chris Sununu, the Republican governor of New Hampshire, said last autumn: “The party that chooses to move on from Trump or Biden first wins.”
This view is grounded in America’s aversion to a choice between two ageing men. At 78-years-old, Trump represents a failed past.
Democrats must set this against a bright future. Biden’s policy achievements provide the foundations of a bridge to this future. They must now combine with Harris’ youthful energy, message discipline, and campaigning vigour to reach that destination.
The UK, under a new Labour government, is reaching anew for a brighter future. We should not, however, delude ourselves about the consequences of Trump being re-elected. We will need to face global challenges – Putin, net zero – without American support. This will have massive implications for our economy, security and alliances.
We must, in our Rosa Luxemburg year, either move forward into socialism or fall back into barbarism. Build on Biden’s achievements, including the “most significant climate legislation in the history of the world”, or surrender these advances to a criminal president enamoured of autocrats, who enabled the Supreme Court to gut freedoms, and who says ‘drill, baby, drill’ to the civilisational challenge of climate change.
It is all down to Kamala Harris. With the goodwill, support, and advocacy of American patriots and well-wishers everywhere.
Jonathan Todd is Deputy Editor of Labour Uncut and will be reflecting on our turbulent political times with John Sweeney on Tuesday at 1000 Trades in Birmingham. Tickets still available here.
Tags: Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Jonathan Todd, Kamala Harris, US Presidential election 2024