UNBOUND: Saturday News Review

23/04/2011, 07:30:14 AM

Need an internship? Move next door to Dave

David Cameron backs right of middle-class families to give children a ‘leg-up’ by exploiting their contacts — despite the practice being condemned by Nick Clegg […]His decision to disagree publicly with one of Mr Clegg’s most high-profile policy interventions is likely to anger Liberal Democrats, who already resented Mr Cameron’s recent attacks in the debate on the Alternative Vote. In the interview, Mr Cameron said it was “fine” to help people you knew. “I’ve got my neighbour coming in for an internship,” he said. “In the modern world, of course you’re always going to have internships and interns – people who come and help in your office who come through all sorts of contacts, friendly, political, whatever. “I do that and I’ll go on doing that. I feel very relaxed about it.” Earlier this month, Mr Clegg attacked the system that Mr Cameron has now endorsed, describing it as one of the barriers to poor Britons rising up the social hierarchy. – the Telegraph

Tory members sick of Clegg concessions

David Cameron has been given a stark warning by Conservative Party activists not to offer any new policy concessions to Nick Clegg if the Liberal Democrats suffer big losses at the local elections next month. A survey of 1,115 Tory members for The Independent found that an overwhelming 92 per cent want the Prime Minister to refuse to bolster Mr Clegg’s position, because the Tories have already made enough concessions on issues such as Europe, defence, crime and the family. Only 8 per cent want Mr Cameron to find new ways to keep Mr Clegg happy, such as speeding up reform of the House of Lords and slowing down the Government’s controversial shake-up of the NHS. The poll, conducted by the ConservativeHome website, found that only 19 per cent of Tory members believe that their party secured the best deal from the Coalition Agreement. A majority (52 per cent) believe that the Liberal Democrats got the best deal, while 29 per cent regard the agreement as equally good for both parties. – the Independent

Cable continues to throw rocks

Earlier this week Matthew Barrett compiled a list of Vince Cable’s long list of attempts to undermine the Coalition. They are now arriving every 72 hours. No senior Tory has attacked Mr Cable for his acts of disloyalty but the tantrums continue. When he fails to get a response this small man escalates his rhetoric, constantly daring Cameron to act against him. The Business Secretary ups the rhetoric again tomorrow – shooting at Cameron on two fronts: He calls for Labour, Greens and Liberal Democrats to come together to win the AV referendum so that they can then come together and exclude the Conservatives from power […] He then calls for Mr Cameron to disown the “no” campaign for its “brutal personal attack on Clegg”. It is one thing to have a coalition of two parties where each party wants to advance its own interests. It is an entirely different thing to see a senior member of one those parties plotting to build a coalition that excludes the other. – Conservative Home

Gordon Brown to take post at World Economic Forum

Gordon Brown may have been black-balled for the top job at the International Monetary Fund by the prime minister, but he has won a modest consolation prize in the form of a new post at the World Economic Forum. The Geneva-based thinktank, which runs the annual Davos summit, said the former prime minister had agreed to chair a new “policy and initiatives co-ordination board”, which will oversee talks about the future of the global economic system. “With the challenges the world faces, it is vital that all stakeholders are engaged in solving them. The World Economic Forum is uniquely placed to bring those stakeholders together and support the global agenda,” Brown said. Brown’s committee will bring together policymakers and heads of international organisations, such as the IMF, to discuss how to prevent financial crises such as the one that rocked the world in 2008. Klaus Schwab, executive chairman of the WEF, said: “Gordon Brown will bring a wealth of knowledge and experience to the World Economic Forum … His counsel will help ensure the Forum remains rigorous and focused — true to its commitment to improve the state of the world.” – the Guardian

Independent poll gives ‘Yes’ camp hope

The battle between the Yes and No camps before next month’s referendum on the voting system is still wide open, according to a poll for The Independent. The findings will come as a relief to supporters of a switch to the alternative vote (AV) after recent surveys gave the No camp a lead of more than 10 points. The poll, by research agency TNS, found that 34 per cent of people oppose AV and 32 per cent support it, with 21 per cent replying “don’t know” and 13 per cent saying they would probably not vote in the 5 May referendum. According to TNS, one in four people who voted Liberal Democrat at last year’s general election oppose AV (26 per cent), while 74 per cent support it. In a mirror image, one in four people who backed the Conservatives last year favour AV (23 per cent), with 77 per cent opposing it. Labour voters are against a switch to AV by a margin of 53 to 47 per cent. The rival camps believe that this group could hold the key to the result. The pro-AV organisation will mount a major push to win over Labour supporters. – the Independent

Facebook Twitter Digg Delicious StumbleUpon

UNCUT: In Australia AV doesn’t live up to the rhetoric of the ‘No’ or ‘Yes’ campaigns

22/04/2011, 12:00:07 PM

by Andy Bagnall

I’ve just returned from a five-month stint down under – advising the Australian Labor Party (ALP) on the New South Wales state elections – to a pile of post several inches high. Among the bank statements and the pizza adverts was a leaflet from each of the campaigns for the AV referendum. A hand-delivered, two-colour flyer from the YES campaign and a full-colour glossy, posted direct mail from the NO campaign – perhaps reflecting the differing financial resources of the two sides.

Although I’ve followed the AV debate from afar, I read the two flyers with interest, only to be disappointed by the simplistic level of the debate and the exaggerated claims of both sides.

As far as the YES camp is concerned, I can categorically assure them from my New South Wales experience that optional AV will not make MPs work harder. It will not end safe seats or jobs for life, and it most certainly won’t stop MPs becoming embroiled in scandals.

If that were the case someone forgot to give the memo to the two dozen New South Wales MPs  who, during the last parliamentary cycle, were tainted by accusations of domestic violence; marital infidelity; sex for planning consents; child molestation; or having their hands in the till. Sadly, all of these were Labor MPs and the charge sheet explains, at least in part, the scale of the Labor government’s defeat in NSW.

The most colourful scandal was the then police minister being accused of dancing in his underpants at a post-budget party simulating a sex act with a fellow MP while saying to her daughter “look, I’m t***y-f*****g your mother.” This has been strenuously denied by all concerned. No-one’s been sued but the Minister still resigned. No, my friends, not even the awesome power of an AV electoral system can stop that level of error of judgement even if it could stop an MP fiddling their expenses.

Similarly, to the NO camp, AV will not mean the rise of extremist parties in and of itself. Nor will it mean that some people’s votes are counted twice – everyone’s vote is counted the same number of times no matter how many rounds of counting. Nor will it lead to more broken promises. This last one made me laugh out loud. Read the rest of this entry »

Facebook Twitter Digg Delicious StumbleUpon

UNCUT: The real Labour lie on immigration

22/04/2011, 08:00:36 AM

by Atul Hatwal

David Cameron’s speech on immigration last week sparked a predictably incoherent response from Labour.

The official line was to not have a line on what Cameron was talking about. Nor was it to have a line on Vince Cable’s response.

Instead, Labour just talked about there being a government split. While several elephants trampled around Labour’s room. Did the party agree with Cameron? Or Cable? Did it want to defend its record?

Questions, questions.

No answers were immediately forthcoming, but some clues on leadership thinking, beyond abject terror at the use of the ‘I’ word, have begun to seep out in the past week.

Up popped Maurice Glasman in the pages of Progress, Labour’s very own pearly king, or at least Lord. He had lots to say about Labour’s “lie” on the levels of immigration, the impact on traditional working class folk and the need to “reconnect” with members of the English Defence League.

Gor blimey guvnor.

Then Ed Miliband chipped in to Nick Robinson. Citing the mythical conversation with the average punter, so beloved of politicians reaching for some authenticity, he said:

“I think we clearly underestimated the number of people coming from Poland…People say to me, look I’m worried about the pressure on my wages of people coming into the country, I’m worried about what it does to housing supply”.

Looking beyond it being unlikely anyone really said that to him, given no-one outside of a think tank actually talks like that, Miliband’s words marked the complete triumph of a new narrative for Labour on immigration. He might have skirted around the topic during the leadership election, but this was the first time he had articulated the narrative as leader of the Labour party.

While the right wail about identity, security and look suspiciously at the Pakistani migrants and their children; Labour has gone down the Duffy road with an invading army of eastern Europeans pushing hard pressed Brits out of jobs.

Increased labour supply at the lower income end of the labour market, driving down wages, increasing unemployment and increasing pressure on public services is the more salon-friendly version of this thesis.

But here’s the problem. Regardless of the way it’s expressed, it’s wrong. Not morally or ethically, but factually. Read the rest of this entry »

Facebook Twitter Digg Delicious StumbleUpon

UNBOUND: Friday News Review

22/04/2011, 05:47:42 AM

Mixed news on AV referendum

The battle between the Yes and No camps before next month’s referendum on the voting system is still wide open, according to a poll for The Independent. The findings will come as a relief to supporters of a switch to the alternative vote (AV) after recent surveys gave the No camp a lead of more than 10 points. The poll, by research agency TNS, found that 34 per cent of people oppose AV and 32 per cent support it, with 21 per cent replying “don’t know” and 13 per cent saying they would probably not vote in the 5 May referendum. According to TNS, one in four people who voted Liberal Democrat at last year’s general election oppose AV (26 per cent), while 74 per cent support it. In a mirror image, one in four people who backed the Conservatives last year favour AV (23 per cent), with 77 per cent opposing it. Labour voters are against a switch to AV by a margin of 53 to 47 per cent. The rival camps believe that this group could hold the key to the result. The pro-AV organisation will mount a major push to win over Labour supporters. – the Independent

The ‘Yes to AV’ campaign was dealt a fresh blow after a poll showed older voters were largely opposed to ditching the one person, one vote system. A survey of nearly 12,000 over-50s by Saga showed just 32 per cent were in favour of AV while 50 per cent wanted to stick with first-past-the-post. English over-50s were especially sceptical about AV, with more than 50 per cent opposed to it. Meanwhile older Scots are 41 per cent in favour, compared to 50 per cent of over-50s in Northern Ireland. Mature voters are more likely to turn out to vote and less likely to change their minds, which could make the battle for the Yes campaign even harder. The poll came as David Cameron risked controversy by using John Major’s Conservative administration as an example of a ‘bad government’ which only first-past-the-post could conclusively boot out. – Daily Mail

Gordon’s back

Gordon Brown claimed yesterday he was “not interested” in polls showing Labour heading for defeat to the SNP, as campaign chiefs insisted they would not change course, despite the sudden slump in their fortunes. In his first intervention on the campaign trail, he dismissed the surge in SNP support, saying Labour’s focus on job creation would resonate with “worried” voters as polling day drew near. But the latest poll finding, which suggests the SNP is within touching distance of an overall majority, will only confirm growing concerns within the party that the election is slipping out of their grasp as election day comes into view. Some Labour candidates insist they are untroubled by the poll ratings, claiming voters “on the ground” are backing Labour more enthusiastically than in the 2007 election. – the Scotsman Read the rest of this entry »

Facebook Twitter Digg Delicious StumbleUpon

INSIDE: The final figures are in for the government’s borrowing: a total of £141.1bn.

21/04/2011, 06:50:41 PM

We made a back of an envelope prediction last month about what we expected the outturn to be and plumped for £135bn on the basis of the arguments we have persistently been making about the dividend from the previous government’s stabilisation of the economy and the growth it enabled.

The OBR also had its chance in the March 2011 budget – with all those models and only eight days left of spending before the end of the financial year – to make their prediction. They went for £144bn. Well, we’ll have to split the difference. The outturn for 2011 was (again) lower, thanks (again) to Labour’s growth dividend.

So the previous Labour government’s strategy of growth-supportive deficit reduction reduced the deficit from a prediction in March 2010 £163bn to today’s outturn of £141bn; a reduction of £22bn.

The new government’s strategy of cutting growth to crowd in private sector investment has meant that the OBR has added a further £35bn that this government will borrow over the lifetime of this parliament. And given that the OBR record is to be wrong, about 10% or so out, this could be a lot higher.

It’s distasteful that the benefit cuts of £7bn were justified by the OBR’s prediction of a £149bn deficit. That June prediction was wrong by £7.9bn –  enough to pay for those benefit cuts. We wonder if they will sleep well tonight in the north Oxford beds.

Facebook Twitter Digg Delicious StumbleUpon

UNCUT: This government’s back-of-the-envelope approach to national security must change

21/04/2011, 04:05:03 PM

by Matt Cavanagh

Con Coughlin’s article in today’s Telegraph will make uncomfortable reading for those Conservatives (and News International journalists) who like to pretend that Cameron’s national security council (NSC) is a genuinely radical reform based on a serious attempt to learn the lessons of the last decade. Coughlin writes:

“To judge by the NSC’s increasingly inchoate response to the challenge presented by Gaddafi’s regime, it seems to me that all it has achieved so far is the replacement of Blair’s much-derided “sofa government” with a new, back-of-the-envelope approach.”

argued in November that Cameron had persistently over-sold his reforms to our national security machinery, which really amounted to “a tinkering and re-badging exercise”. In the first couple of weeks of the Libyan crisis, the continuing lack of strategy, coherence, and grip was obvious.

The narrative changed when Cameron was able to take the credit for British diplomatic efforts to secure UNSCR 1973, and for being one of the first leaders to call for military intervention. The changed narrative didn’t change the facts – that Cameron’s call for intervention was more a response to immediate domestic pressure than part of a real strategy, and that UNSCR 1973 itself didn’t seem to be part of a real strategy – but it did push these inconvenient facts into the background. At that stage, what mattered was that Cameron seemed to be winning the international argument.

Now what matters is who is winning on the ground. The curiously timed joint letter by Sarkozy, Cameron and Obama, insisting that Gaddafi must go, hasn’t made that outcome any more likely compared to the various possible outcomes which leave him in place – the potential collapse of the revolution outlined by Anthony Loyd in this month’s Prospect, or a protracted stalemate, or a messy negotiated settlement. The letter has, however, increased the extent to which the West’s reputation, as well as Libyans’ future, is on the line.

It might therefore be time to look again, not just at the implications of the Libyan crisis for our defence and foreign policy – reopening or updating the strategic defence and security review (SDSR) – but also at the implications for our national security machinery. It needs real reform, rather than tinkering and re-badging, if we are to increase the chances of our foreign and security policy being driven by strategy rather than emerging out of the interaction between media coverage, domestic politics, and bureaucratic dysfunction.

Matt Cavanagh was a special adviser on defence in the ministry of defence, treasury, and Downing Street from 2005 to 2010.

Facebook Twitter Digg Delicious StumbleUpon

GRASSROOTS: Two Eds are better than one

21/04/2011, 01:30:53 PM

by David Talbot

As Gordon Brown succumbed to the inevitable late on that May evening – with an emotional and dignified statement to end his tumultuous premiership – the final chapter of New Labour was being written. A project that had started in earnest in the mid 1990s had met a sorry end. Achieving a meagre 29% of the vote would make Michael Foot blush, but as the former prime minster left number 10 for the last time, two young loyal lieutenants that had served the party since the early 1990s slipped into opposition determined to bring Labour back to the cusp of power.

The howl of indignation across vast swathes of the press and the Blairite bastions at the election of Ed Miliband as Labour leader was an object lesson in frustrated establishment entitlement. His election was not ordained, the media had thrown its weight behind his brother, David, as the continuity candidate – and so had the New Labour hierarchy.

It didn’t take long for the repercussions to start, the Murdoch press predicted imminent disaster, the ever buffoonish Sun labeled him ‘Red Ed’ and disgruntled former ministers began spitting poison around the Manchester conference bars.

The very fact that Ed Miliband won was due in part because he caught a wave of opinion and optimism within the labour movement that was determined to see the party move on from New Labour and its discredited agenda of triangulation, authoritarianism and penchant for privatisation. Miliband offered a new vision and, even in these early stages, there can be no serious doubt that he represents a real and significant shift beyond New Labour politics. The danger is not this breach of the old order, but that the diehard Blairites, who apparently have no clue why Labour lost 5 million votes, continue to snipe and undermine the new leadership. Read the rest of this entry »

Facebook Twitter Digg Delicious StumbleUpon

UNCUT: Labour needs to stop being the bossing and interfering party

21/04/2011, 08:39:28 AM

by Peter Watt

Last week’s decision to end the so called bin-taxes was clever politics by the government.  And as there hasn’t been an awful lot of clever politics recently by the government, I thought that it was significant. What was particularly clever was that the weekend “announcement” was actually an announcement that the ending of bin taxes would be announced in about a month’s time.

But the government knows that the local elections and AV referendum (whatever the result) are going to be pretty challenging for them. They know that there is not a lot that they can do to alter that. So they have decided to keep reminding people of what they think the public see as Labour weakness. So they might lose the battle in the next month, but they will keep sowing the seeds of an election victory in 2015. These reminders obviously include playing the blame game on the deficit and attacking Labour’s economic competence. But it also involves something else. Something more personally emotional for many voters. A perceived tendency by the last Labour government to overly interfere in people’s lives. Read the rest of this entry »

Facebook Twitter Digg Delicious StumbleUpon

UNBOUND: Thursday News Review

21/04/2011, 06:54:39 AM

Guardianistas go negative – at last

A leading Labour figure in the campaign for a no vote in the alternative vote referendum has praised its gutter politics, saying there are too many people on the liberal left who think politics is a spectator sport. Dan Hodges, a paid consultant to the no campaign until two weeks ago, ridiculed the yes campaign’s style, saying that gutter politics is where political battles are won and lost. His remarks come as allies of Nick Clegg have confirmed that the deputy prime minister feels David Cameronis breaking a private pact between the two men to maintain a low profile during the campaigning. Clegg refused to discuss the prime minister’s promise on the BBC, but will make a speech directly attacking first past the post. Clegg’s allies say the betrayal of the promise will have long-term consequences for the coalition’s future conduct. Hodges claims the yes campaign has not got a prayer in the referendum on 5 May. He writes in article for the website Labour Uncut: “I thought one of the positive legacies of Blairism was that it had finally put some lead into the progressive pencil. Those countless debates about ‘should we go positive… should we go negative’, ‘we mustn’t be too aggressive, the public don’t like it, ya da, ya da, yah’. All that had gone. Once we’d been campaigners. Now we were street fighters. If someone hit hard and low, we’d hit lower and harder.” – the Guardian

Whilst Clegg downplays his own importance

Nick Clegg has downplayed the effect his unpopularity could have in the AV referendum. In an increasingly personal campaign that has seen the ‘no’ campaign splash pictures of Nick Clegg across its literature, the deputy prime minister said it would be “daft” to vote against electoral change because of one politician. “I really don’t think that people are so daft that when they’re asked to have this once-in-a-generation opportunity to change the electoral system they’re going to do it based on what they think about one party or one politician,” he told BBC Breakfast. The deputy prime minister also explained his much-quoted remark before the election that AV was a “miserable little compromise. What I was actually referring to was Gordon Brown’s suggestion very late in the day in his government of making changes which everyone knew would not come into effect,” he said. – politics.co.uk

Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg insists he is thick-skinned enough to deal with the personal attacks he has sustained in the run-up to the Alternative Vote (AV) referendum. The Liberal Democrat leader has been repeatedly mocked by those in the “No to AV” campaign, which is backed by Prime Minister David Cameron. Mr Clegg denied suggestions his stance on the referendum was causing problems with his working relationship with Mr Cameron – but said the No camp’s tactics were becoming “desperate”. He said: “I’ve been in politics long enough to know when people start mudslinging and start playing the man rather than the ball they are rather desperate. – the Scotsman

Now the teachers are unhappy with the coalition

Activists interrupted a speech by Nick Gibb, the Schools Minister, with shouts of “rubbish” and “not true” as he addressed a union conference in Liverpool. Speaking to the Association of Teachers and Lecturers, he claimed that proposed Government changes to the teachers’ pension scheme would protect their “gold standard” retirement fund. But members – traditionally viewed as more moderate than other classroom unions – repeatedly barracked the minister, saying he failed to understand their concerns. One activist also accused Mr Gibb’s boss, Michael Gove, the Education Secretary, of “political cowardice” for failing to address the annual conference in person. It is the first time teachers have publicly barracked a Coalition minister since the Government was formed last year. A series of Labour ministers were subjected to high-profile attacks over issues such as class sizes and national testing. The ATL claims the Government’s reforms, including a rise in pension contributions, will force them to work for longer and receive less when they retire. – the Telegraph

The schools minister, Nick Gibb, was heckled and jeered by teachers as he attempted to justify proposed changes to their pensions that have prompted a ballot for industrial action. When Gibb told delegates at the Association of Teachers and Lecturers annual conference in Liverpool: “I fully understand the strength of feeling on this,” and said teachers’ pensions remained a priority, he was greeted by shouts of “no, you don’t” and “rubbish” – along with calls for evidence of the need for change. ATL delegates voted to ballot for strike action over pensions, which could see schools shut by June. The union fears the changes will mean teachers working longer, paying increased contributions and receiving less when they retire. Teachers are also fiercely opposed to the coalition’s education changes, with a survey underlining the challenge facing the government. The survey commissioned by the Sutton Trust found only 8% of teachers believe free schools will raise standards, while 69% believe the expansion of academies will lead to greater social segregation. – the Guardian

He will wear a morning suit after all

David Cameron yesterday caved into his inner toff by agreeing to wear a traditional morning coat to the royal wedding. Downing Street had briefed that the PM would wear a lounge suit, because he did not want to remind voters of his posh past. But it was claimed yesterday that he will wear the full waistcoat and tails next week. A source close to the PM told the Daily Telegraph: “Of course he’s got to wear tails. He knows that. He’s the Prime Minister, it’s the Royal Family, there will be foreign dignitaries present. It is only proper that he dresses for the importance of the occasion.” Downing Street refused to confirm that the PM, after days of dithering, had now opted for a morning suit – or whether he will be wearing a top hat. – the Mirror

When Gordon Brown wore a lounge suit at the Mansion House, some were willing to forgive it as an eccentric piece of ideological nonconformity. But even Mr Brown wore a white tie and tail coat for a state banquet at Buckingham Palace. So when it was bruited that David Cameron, as Prime Minister, would be wearing a lounge suit to the wedding of Prince William to Catherine Middleton, there was more public outrage than perhaps he bargained for. For this is not a wedding of private individuals. As a semi-state occasion, the monarch will be present and foreign heads of state will attend. The British head of Government is invited in his official role, not merely for his agreeable small talk. “Reclothe us in our rightful mind,” says the popular hymn. We congratulate Mr Cameron on his change of mind – soon to be seen in a change of clothes. – the Telegraph

Facebook Twitter Digg Delicious StumbleUpon

INSIDE: Tom Watson’s apologetic addendum to his piece on Douglas Alexander and Libya

20/04/2011, 06:32:42 PM

In an unusual move, Tom Watson has added a caveat to his article adversely criticising Douglas Alexander’s refusal to back a recall of Parliament.

His apologetic addendum to this morning’s piece reads:

West Bromwich, 18.25

On re-reading this article, I find that, not for the first time, I’ve been too harsh on Douglas Alexander. He’s not making the calls, Hague is. He’s got the difficult task of reacting very quickly to a fast changing policy. So I regret the harsh tone of the piece. Sorry Douglas. To be fair, I should have said how he completely exposed coalition incompetence in the early days of the conflict over the evacuation. But I’m seriously worried about mission creep. And parliament hasn’t been consulted. Ministers should be held to account.

Whatever else you may say about Watson, he is never short of surprises.

Facebook Twitter Digg Delicious StumbleUpon