by Atul Hatwal
The ascension of a new party leader is usually a time for rushed, breathless hagiographies and fears among opponents, within and without their party, that a new tide will sweep away their forces.
Allow me to demur.
Theresa May has demonstrated many qualities to become prime minister designate, but her position is far from imperious.
For those of us around in Westminster in the 1990s, there are some recognisable contours to the new political landscape that now confronts Labour, following the tsunami of the past three weeks.
A major economic event fundamentally that changes the narrative on who can be trusted on the economy. Personal enmities and ideological divisions spilling into public view across the Conservative party. A Tory leader facing the prospect of recession while trying to protect a small parliamentary majority.
It all feels rather familiar.
In the 1990s, the starting point was Black Wednesday. In the mid-2010s, it’s Brexit.
In 1992, Sterling’s exit from the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) re-defined the Tories’ image of economic competence. Whatever the rights and wrongs of leaving the ERM, it became the prism through which the ongoing recession was reported.
In the process, the Conservatives became associated with a deadly combination of economic incompetence and pain.
Labour still needed to win the public’s trust on the economy, but Black Wednesday meant the Tories had lost it.
This shift in public perception, as the economy struggled, contributed towards making the management of a small parliamentary majority – difficult at the best of times – a virtual impossibility.
John Major had won a shock victory in 1992 and secured a very clear personal mandate. More people voted for the Conservatives in 1992 – just over 14m – than have voted for any other British party. Ever.
It counted for nothing as his MPs learned that even small numbers working together could force the government to back down on their pet topics.
What started with Maastricht spilled over into rebellions on anything and everything, battering a decent if inadequate leader.
Theresa May is about to walk in John Major’s shoes.
If anything, her task is even more difficult.
She does not possess the electoral validation of John Major, nor any endorsement from the party membership. In this respect, her mandate more mirrors Gordon Brown’s.
John Major’s majority of 21 was higher than the 16 which sustains the current Tory administration.
And while he had to contend with a vocal and determined, core of Eurosceptics intent on causing trouble, they were still a minority.
In contrast, Theresa May leads a party that is deeply split between Brexiteers and Remainers who were, until three weeks ago, engaged in full civil war. She will have to manage people who have fallen out at a deeply personal level and might not be prepared to fall back in.
Just two weeks ago, Boris Johnson’s campaign manager, Ben Wallace, was threatening Michael Gove with a penectomy. These were people who had been on the same side of the EU referendum battle a few days earlier.
John Major was able to forge a deal and then a partnership with his most likely rival for the leadership, Michael Heseltine. It is unlikely Theresa May will be so fortunate with the two most dangerous princes over the water – Boris Johnson and George Osborne.
Each has a camp with MPs and journalists in attendance. Even if they both opt to serve in her government, what price rumours of challenges to the May leadership when the economic waters become more choppy and her MPs start to feel nervous about the judgement of the electorate?
Whitehall whispers cast Theresa May as a reluctant decision-maker. As with John Major, she will soon discover just how different Number 10 is to being in charge of a single department.
Her caution and desire to be personally on top of the detail across the Home Office brief might have helped her to avoid the pitfalls which have befallen previous Home Secretaries. But they will lead to administrative sclerosis across government if she tries to replicate this approach in Number 10.
The gangrene of bureaucratic inertia will stifle decision-making and leave the prime minister vulnerable to being driven by events. Once again, the comparison with Brown maybe more apposite here. His leaden-footed handling of expenses, allowing David Cameron to control the agenda, despite his own exigencies, was a case study in how not to manage from Number 10.
And if she can navigate all of these tribulations – a party reputation for economic competence that is dented, likely recession, party splits, rivals manoeuvring for her crown and the rigours of running the country, then comes the toughest decision of all: hard or soft Brexit.
The decision is a political iceberg to wreck any Tory administration: whether to exit the single market fully, with all that entails in terms of economic pain as firms face tariffs to trade in Europe or to strike a compromise that retains market access for some measure of freedom of movement and face the fury of her right-wing.
Given the deep divisions between Brexiteers and Remainers on this question, its debatable whether there is any strategy that could hold the Tory party together.
These are huge challenges that Theresa May faces. In most circumstances they would rightly be described as insurmountable.
John Major faced fewer and was destroyed after starting from a stronger position.
However, one major factor is in Theresa May’s favour, something that is very different to the 1990s.
Labour’s leadership.
After the 1992 election, Labour was led by John Smith and then Tony Blair. Both were well suited to providing the calm reassurance that the British public yearned for as the Tories turned in on themselves.
Both were canny parliamentary performers and had teams around them that helped maximise the Tories’ discomfort.
In the chaotic world, where instability is gripping politics, where the right of the Conservative party has a choke-hold on the prime minister, when recession is advancing steadily over the country and Brexit negotiations are shrouding the future in uncertainty, Jeremy Corbyn is not the man to give Britons’ the safety they crave.
He is however the one man who can give Theresa May the security of tenure in Number 10 to ride out the storms that she knows are coming.
Rather than address any of the tumultous events of the yesterday – the withdrawal of Andrea Leadsom, the anointment of Theresa May, the declaration of a challenge by Angela Eagle to his leadership – Jeremy Corbyn’s main public event was to speak to the Cuba Solidarity campaign in parliament.
If Labour just had a proper leader, someone who understood their role as leader of the opposition, a prime minister in waiting, the party would find that the political horizon is far from bleak.
Atul Hatwal is editor of Uncut
Tags: Atul Hatwal, Black Wednesday, Brexit, David Cameron, EU referendum, Jeremy Corbyn, Theresa May, Tony Blair
Angela Eagle = hopeless. Owen Smith = supercilious Tory-lite loser.
In 1992 Labour was a party where Kinnock had done the hard yards purging the Trots, OMOV wasn’t a twinkle in the eye of reformers, and it was desparate for power having been unelectable for a generation.
In 2016 the Trots are in the ascendancy, there is OMOV for the leadership, and 2010 is recent history.
The Labour Party has to decide what and who it is for; it cannot continue to be a middle class socially liberal party and a working class socially conservative party.
The ERM was a precursor to the EZ. Our economy was not strong enough to stay in the ERM. The Coup de Grase was administered by Soros and his ilk who used derivatives to force the UK out of the ERM and incidentally make themselves a small fortune. Trying to keep the Pound artificially high caused a recession, deeper than any of our competitors http://econ.economicshelp.org/2008/12/exchange-rate-mechanism-crisis-1992.html
It only took six months from leaving the ERM for the UK to move out of recession.
This article is a bit like Leadsoms CV – no actual untruths but misleading by omission. The Tories are split down the middle but so is Labour. Your problem isnt just with the Leader its also with most of the Members & The Unions. Its not a New Leader that Labour Centrists need but a New Party.
Atuls’ final paragraph :
“If Labour just had a proper leader, someone who understood their role as leader of the opposition, a prime minister in waiting, the party would find that the political horizon is far from bleak”
is just crying in the dark.
They have no such person. And if they did, their incoherent election rules and system would make it impossible to elect them as leader.
The Tories have just shown you all how to run an election in a way deigned to weed out the unfit and unsuitable. It’s nasty, brutal and effective. And Tory MPs still appear to recall what happens when they choose someone on the basis of political purity. You end up with Ian Duncan Smith – unelectable.
The Labour Party through its electoral shambles show it is unfit to be the Official Opposition – let alone a Government.
Until you do so, you are all wasting your time.
May I suggest you start by ditching the man who has been kingmaker – Ed McCluskey. The Last three leaders have been HIS men. Not women I hasten to add. Until you remove his influence, you are stuffed – to put it crudely but accurately.
The fact that he is your paymaster shows how bad things are.
May is a better politician than anything Labour or the Lib Dems can currently offer. Tim Farron means well, but has the credibility of a small, angry chicken, while Corbyn seems lost in a world of Maoist delusions urged on by the Momentum cultists. Nicola Sturgeon is the most realistic and appealing politician in the UK today – and if Labour had any sense they would be trying to arrange a coalition with her and the Lib Dems and Plaid involving radical regional devolution and proportional representation so that the regions of England as well as Scotland and Wales can run their own affairs – and people can see just how greedy, corrupt and vicious the Tories are up close and personal. All Corbyn is achieving by his extended temper tantrum is to give UKIP a chance of gaining ground in the north as Labour’s credibility vanishes. UKIP can be smashed if Labour gets its act together, because UKIP are a deeply charmless rabble of thugs without any sort of agenda except Little Englander fascism as dreamed up by Arron Banks.
Agree up to a point. And that is no one voted for ERM, even though all parties agreed to it. This time the public voted for BEXIT, a soft BREXIT won’t satisfy the headbangers, but it might be enough for the Conservatives to win again. UKIP for the hardliners, that will affect Labour and the Coservatives, and the Remainers, I’d so only a few were hardline enthusiasts. Labour needs to accept Brexit. Can It?
Of course we were out of recession before the ERM crisis hit and enjoyed strong, stable growth thereafter handing Blair & Brown a golden inheritance to squander.
Buy hey, let’s not let facts get in the way of a good narrative – just like the media didn’t back then.
May is formidable – and if Labour put it’s best three front-benchers combined against her she would eat them alive.
The tories are on course now to win in 2020 with a stunning majority.
We’ve got such a leader. Unfortunately he’s currently having to fight off a self-indulgent coup attempted by people who care more about their internal ideological struggle than with actually winning elections (and who then have the brass neck to accuse the left of the same).
Well I’ve just read the comments:
>>NickT
“ if Labour had any sense they would be trying to arrange a coalition with her (Nicoal Sturgeon,SNP) ”
You appear to forget the last GE when Ed was tarred with the “vote Labour, get SNP” label. You English voters would finally realise you have no interest in the WWC vote and it would destroy Labour .
>>anosrep
If Corbyn is so wonderful, why do his MPs rebel? Have you see the latest opinion poll? May’s lead over him is around 40 percentage points.
The facts on the ground say you are smoking dope. 🙂
Well who do you suggest Atul? Cards on the table.
The fact that All CLP meetings are cancelled for the next 2 Months says it all. They had to be cancelled to protect members from the violence that would have broken out – thats how deep the split goes.
This contest wont change the facts on the ground; if Corbyn wins the PLP will still be in revolt, if Eagle/Smith win, Momentum will still be there & The Marxist Left will still have the sympathy of half the members & control of the big Unions. The need for a split will only increase unless you want a decade of civil war.
so Basically Tom Watson who took on Murdoch over phone hacking is in the pocket of Murdoch, and Ed miliband is a tory, while there’s a mythical radical working class out there,crying out for far left government
You need to listen to your real grass roots the neglected working classes up North and down South.Not middle class metropolitan lefties ,that’s how you can win back voters.You took them for granted and UKIP are stepping in.
Jeremy Corbyn should champion Brexit from a left perspective of workers rights ,wages and regulation stifling whole industries like fishing.Labour was formed for the workers and its about time they got back to putting them first and I speak as a conservative voter who understands the need for a strong and viable opposition.
We were too soft, too compromising with the hard Left and now they have almost taken over the body host. These people are not really democrats as the bullying NEC meeting showed and McDonnells extreme dismissal of the MPs. Deeply sad.
Just at the time when the Labour Front Bench is attempting to hold the Tories to account we have such ridiculous situations as ‘Labour MP’ Ben Bradshaw specifically implying that Jeremy Corbyn is somehow directly or indirectly responsible for the intimidation and abusive acts that have occurred within the last few weeks with his call for Jeremy Corbyn “to call off the Momentum Thugs”. This is a slur of serious level that decreases our ability as a party to unite. Mr Bradshaw, if he has any evidence of causation should report it to the relevant authority.
Then we have Johanna Baxter yesterday providing press footage to assert that Corbyn backs people who bully, merely because he supported an open vote which is the system that the NEC would normally adopt on issues. Again that implies that Corbyn has some intent in making life difficult for those who want to vote a particular way, as if the rule and as she sees consequences, did not apply to those of a different view to hers.
Corbyn despite all the internal opposition has done a credible job in securing with liaison from other parties several changes withdrawals and amendments to divisive Tory legislation.
Tiomanisland :-
intimidation and abusive acts that have occurred within the last few weeks with his call for Jeremy Corbyn “to call off the Momentum Thugs”.
Then we have Johanna Baxter yesterday providing press footage to assert that Corbyn backs people who bully,
And it’s two way as well. There is a report in today’s Guardian of Lbour modertates threatening and verbally abusing Momentum activists down in Brighton after Momentum took coontro; there.
Tiomanisland :-
intimidation and abusive acts that have occurred within the last few weeks with his call for Jeremy Corbyn “to call off the Momentum Thugs”.
Then we have Johanna Baxter yesterday providing press footage to assert that Corbyn backs people who bully,
And it’s two way as well. There is a report in today’s Guardian of Labour modertates threatening and verbally abusing Momentum activists down in Brighton after Momentum took control there.
TiomasisLand, Jo Baxter clearly was intimidated in that meeting, Jeremy could have done so,etching about it,and didn’t
I suppose that in many ways, I have been a ragged trousered philanthropist all of my working life, and I think, a natural Labour supporter. I was thrilled in 97 (how naïve I was), and since then have watched Labour with increasing disappointment.
Two things I think, have led to my view, ( the devastation of the lives of so many children, women and men in Britains misguided foreign adventure is a symptom of these two things).
The first is the appearance of Labour Aristocracy. How many children of senior Labour figures are beginning to aspire to and gain (relatively) senior positions ?. How many Labour Lords and Ladies previously publicly opposed the patronage and privilege of the HoL ?. How many Labour MPs have lived and worked in their constituencies for long enough to really understand the needs of the local people ?. Perhaps the Victorians were right , it’s all in the breeding.
The second is the attitudes I see, from top to bottom, toward the “enemy”.
I love the passion I see throughout the Labour movement, But to allow that passion it’s head is to become Authoritarian. Sadly, in my reading across media, I believe I have seen a tendency for dehumanisation. For instance , it seems to be ok to refer to tories as scum. If we’re the good guys, is it ok to abuse the bad guys ?
It looks like we still have Rome to me. Even with the Labour party ( bows head )Bread and circuses anyone ?. Or shall we choose Corbyn ? ( With whom I disagree strongly, on several issues)
“Jeremy Corbyn should champion Brexit from a left perspective of workers rights ,wages and regulation stifling whole industries like fishing”
What’s stifling fishing isn’t the EU – it’s over-fishing leading to the collapse of fishing grounds. Add in the Tory decision to allocate fishing rights to three companies (also nothing to do with the EU) and you have a recipe for disaster. Again, nothing to do with the EU, despite the Liever propaganda on the issue.
As for the WWC vote – they’ll discover what Brexit means for them soon enough. Enjoy your freedom, lads. You’ll have a lot more of it in the near future. Maybe that nice Mr Farage will pop by for a pint and give you all employment as serfs on his estate? Not convinced, eh? Might have been a good idea to do some research before you had your little temper tantrum.
NickT said ” As for the WWC vote – they’ll discover what Brexit means for them soon enough. Enjoy your freedom, lads. You’ll have a lot more of it in the near future. Maybe that nice Mr Farage will pop by for a pint and give you all employment as serfs on his estate? Not convinced, eh? Might have been a good idea to do some research before you had your little temper tantrum.”
Emily Thornberry would be proud of you. Contempt for the WWC..
No wonder Labour are in Opposition
The Labour and Conservative parties would seem to have a problem in common: a tendency to make decisions to please their members rather than the voters.
We’ll see how popular Brexit really is when the recession hits.
The problem is the party is no longer on the side of the voters in it’s so called heartlands and exists only to provide “jobs for the boys” in posh parts of London.
For Labour it is finished. Even as a card carrying party member I cannot see anyone that could possibly beat Mrs May or for that matter Mr Cameron.
Time for Labour to split and form a new grouping because frankly the likes of Evette Cooper and Chukka Umuna have no business being in the party – it has been hijacked by the lunatics like them.