INSIDE: Philip Cowley finds the incumbency factor alive and well in 2010

07/10/2010, 02:20:12 PM

The first obvious evidence of what (at least to me) was one of the more surprising aspects of the election results came at just past 2am on 7 May, when Labour held Gedling. It was the first obvious manifestation of something which the 10pm exit poll had claimed to detect, but which I wanted to see for myself before I believed it: evidence that hard-working Labour incumbents – in this case, Vernon Coaker – could survive against the swing.

The Conservatives would end the election having taken almost a clean sweep of seats from Labour in their top 100 targets. But of the nine they failed to take, eight were held by an incumbent Labour MP. Read the rest of this entry »

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UNCUT: Child benefit and middle class single mums: the sums, by Lesley Smith

07/10/2010, 12:39:34 PM

Much guff has been talked about the effect of the loss of child benefit on the so called aspirant middle class. Yes, a family with one earner taxed at 40% and one at 0% will be hit. And, yes, it’s a grand less towards the school fees. But the tax system already looks after happy couples. (Two people, two tax allowances).  And Cameron and Osborne knew that there was little appetite to defend them.

So who does lose out? And does it matter? Well there’s not much sympathy for working single mums who’ve managed to go up the income scale.  Sure, they’re not the worst off. One blogger points out that the median income for working single parent families is £21,035 a year (compared with a median of £32,158 a year for a two parent family with one worker.) (I’m assuming this is gross.)

But single parents earning £45k aren’t an urban myth. And nor are they leading the life of Riley.

Unless she has stumbled on a lottery ticket, a single mum on £45k is out at work and shelling out on childcare, paid out of already (higher) taxed income. (Funny that an accountant is tax deductable but a nanny is not.) So her net income is far, far lower than that of the couple who generate the same income but only pay 20% of it to the tax man. (And she’s up half the night cooking and cleaning as she hasn’t time in the day or money to pay). Read the rest of this entry »

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UNCUT: A reckoning deferred: Dan Hodges on Cameron’s cagey week

07/10/2010, 09:00:14 AM

Policy chaos. MPs in a panic. A rattled prime minister, with fear in his eyes.

It’s been a dangerous couple of days for the Labour party.

Conference season is a game of two halves. Attack. Counterattack. You roll out your programme. They hit it. You assess where the blows have fallen hardest. Recalibrate. Then you roll out your programme again.

Not this year. By accident, and by design, the Tories have played to different rules.

This should have been the week that Cameron and co. blew some sizeable holes in “Red Ed” and the “new generation”. Instead, they spent the best part of their conference blowing holes in each other.

Their semi-disintegration on child benefit was selfishly dispiriting. I couldn’t weep for the single mothers about to lose their benefits. Or the families facing hardship. All I could think was: “did we really lose an election to this shower”? Read the rest of this entry »

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UNBOUND: Thursday News Review

07/10/2010, 07:15:58 AM

Child benefit backlash

George Osborne’s announcement on cutting child benefit for those on higher tax rates was meant to signal that the party is willing to hurt even its own people in the pursuit of fair cuts. But it caused outrage in the ranks among back-benchers, and seemed only to confirm that David Cameron and his inner circle had in reality bought into the Lib Dem view of life and were “essentially anti-marriage”. In fact it has turned out to be the Conservatives’ 10p tax moment – similar to the fury caused when Gordon Brown scrapped the bottom rate of income tax to help fund a basic rate cut to help the better-off. – The Scotsman

The collateral damage from the Government’s ham-fisted plan to withdraw child benefit from higher-rate taxpayers has been severe. It has overshadowed the first party conference in 14 years at which the Conservatives can celebrate being in power. David Cameron was forced to spend much of yesterday touring the broadcasting studios on a firefighting mission; George Osborne had to write to all Tory MPs explaining that he had no alternative but to use such a blunt instrument because a fairer mechanism based on household incomes would “create a new complex, costly and intrusive means test”. Both men hinted that tax breaks for married couples or even a transferable tax allowance would be introduced by the end of this Parliament to soften the impact of the benefit withdrawal. – The Telegraph

Cameron’s big moment

David Cameron pressed all the essential pulse points for committed party members, slating a lengthy list of Labour’s failings, pledging to roll back the power of the state, emphasising fairness, promising to create an environment in which the Tory virtues of entrepreneurship and self-reliance would thrive and describing Baroness Thatcher as Britain’s greatest peacetime Prime Minister of the past century. It all received the standard standing ovations but will have done nothing to reassure the wider public, particularly floating or Liberal Democrat voters apprehensive about the cuts to be set in motion by the public spending review in two weeks. – The Herald

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UNCUT: Liverpool FC is a big society, say Jonathan Todd and Alison McGovern

06/10/2010, 05:30:10 PM

As Ed Miliband was unveiled as Labour’s leader in Manchester ten days ago, Liverpool were drawing with Sunderland 30 miles away. Which disappointing result was of secondary concern for many compared with protesting against the club’s misrule by Tom Hicks and George Gillett.

Yet even with the possibility of administration hanging over the club, Jeff Stelling of Sky told the protestors to “concentrate on what’s happening on the pitch.”

But this “let them eat cake and drink warm lager” attitude misses the point.

As the clock ticks down to the club effectively being publicly owned, we should ask whether David Cameron has a better grasp of the issues at stake. In spite of the ownership bid from New England Sports Ventures, Robert Peston continues to see control of the club by the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) as a live option. RBS, 84 percent publicly owned, could assume ownership on 15 October when loans taken out with them expire.

While it may be that RBS avoids this outcome by finding new owners capable of servicing the debt in the next week, an RBS takeover is close enough that questions must be asked about how they would conduct themselves as custodians of the club. A publicly owned bank taking on such a role raises new issues.

These issues are larger than the club; even than a club as great as Liverpool. They cut to the core of what we want our post credit-crunched country to be.

There is a worry that the practices which contributed to our troubles may be returning to the financial sector. This concern undermines the hope that there may be opportunity in the financial crisis; opportunity to re-evaluate what kind of economy and society we want to be and to recalibrate ourselves accordingly. Read the rest of this entry »

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HOME: Dave Howells’ take on Dave Cameron’s big moment

06/10/2010, 04:03:44 PM

See more from @davehowells at www.davehowells.co.uk

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GRASSROOTS: Darren Cooper on the shame of Michael Gove

06/10/2010, 11:30:52 AM

People in my borough of Sandwell will never forget that week in July when schools secretary, Michael Gove, first announced that our schools had survived his BSF axe – and then cruelly reversed his decision.

Parents, pupils and teachers won’t soon forget his refusal to listen to reason and give our community the school building projects it so desperately needs. And we certainly won’t forget his refusal to come to Sandwell and explain his decision.

This morning, Michael Gove appeared on our local radio station, BBC WM, and offered nothing more than excuses. For five minutes he failed to offer a single genuine reason why he couldn’t take the ten minute journey from Tory conference in Birmingham to visit the schools in Sandwell whose hopes he so callously dashed this summer. The audio is here. Read the rest of this entry »

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UNCUT: Let’s not join the Tories in going soft on sentencing, says Nick Keehan

06/10/2010, 10:30:49 AM

Ken Clarke played the hard man at the Tory conference yesterday. Prisoners will work a full forty hour week, he told them. “A regime of hard work” will teach them a lesson. It was what they wanted to hear.

He didn’t tell them that, under his watch, a wind of change has swept through the ministry of justice. No longer is there talk of ‘getting tough’ on ‘local crooks’. Instead, the ministry has taken to promoting the positive role that offenders are playing in their communities.

‘Where would we be without offenders?’ someone who reads MoJ press releases might ask. School children in Zambia would be using dangerous paraffin lamps (‘Offenders help students in Africa’, 14 June), and people in Wales would be having trouble remembering both Princess Diana (‘Offenders create fitting memorial to Princess Diana’, 31 August) and the 142 miners killed in the explosion at Old Black Vain Colliery at Risca in 1860 (‘Offenders uncover lost memorial to miners’, 29 September).

Even worse, one woman in east London would be without her handbag, had not a group of offenders doing community payback been there to chase her mugger and reclaim it (‘Offenders to the rescue as woman mugged’, 13 July). This is how the big society will work.  Police numbers will be cut and offenders, no longer crowded out by the big state, will step in and tackle crime themselves. ‘More offenders on the street’ is the pledge (‘Revolving door of crime and reoffending to stop says Clarke’, 30 June). Read the rest of this entry »

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UNBOUND: Wednesday News Review

06/10/2010, 08:07:04 AM

Osborne & Cameron face backlash over child benefit grab

There was a massive backlash because the cut targets stay-at-home mothers, who protested they would be unable to cope and would be better off divorced. That is because two working parents can get more than £80,000 between them without being hit, while next-door neighbours with one earner on £45,000 will lose out. Shadow work and pensions secretary Yvette Cooper said yesterday: “This is a shocking attack on children. Families of all incomes are being hit hardest. “Government Ministers clearly have no idea of the pressures ordinary parents face and how hard people are working to support their children.” – The Bristol Evening Post

The coalition talks about creating a fairer tax and benefits system… then allows a couple earning £86,000 to keep payments someone on £44,000 would lose – and produces a marginal tax rate which means a £1 wage rise could cost a dad of three £47.10 a week. Panicked Cameron is suddenly disinterring a married couples tax allowance. Forget for a moment the injustice of penalising unmarried mums and dads – where, pray, would he get the cash to pay for it? Rob Peter to pay Paula? Suddenly George Osborne admits £11billion cuts in the Budget hit the poorest hardest to justify the child benefit lunacy. The Chancellor denied that very charge a few months ago. – The Mirror

There is that storm on the horizon, the hurricane conjured by Mr Cameron himself and his apprentice, George Osborne. You could call it Grandson of Poll Tax. It does not mean, this time, that an economic experiment will be visited on Scotland first. But amid a Scottish election campaign, and amid the ensuing debate, that’s how it will feel. Received wisdom has long held, of course, that “the cuts” were ominous for Tories and Liberal Democrats alike with elections due in May. What was overlooked was the precise nature of the losses, their specific geographical – and devolved political – circumstances. The north of England is to catch hell: so much has been noticed in parts of London. But the defence review looms large, for better or worse, the length and breadth of Scotland. The Scottish grant, by its very nature, will raise a slew of issues as Mr Osborne sets merrily to work, not least for Scotland’s Tories and LibDems. – The Herald

David Cameron will today try to bribe married Tory voters with a tax break to make amends for his ruthless child benefits axe. After the chaos and anger over his slash-and-burn attack on the welfare state, he will offer the compromise to try to win back middle Britain. His keynote speech has been hastily rewritten to stop the Tory annual conference being wrecked by the move to cut child payments for 1.2million families where one person earns over £44,000. But the Prime Minister’s tax break for high-earning married couples is also set to spark fury as it discriminates against single mums and families where both husband and wife work. – The Mirror

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INSIDE: Child benefit cuts reduce Tory MP Margot James to radio gibberish

05/10/2010, 09:46:04 PM

Tonight George Osborne has written to Tory MPs to explain the cuts he announced to child benefit. It’s a good job. The ill thought out plans seem to be catching out Tory MPs from the PM down.

A red faced David Cameron, with watery eyes, struggled to explain how the announced reform was “fair”, to Sky’s Adam Boulton, hinting at other tax breaks that could level the playing field. Later he stonewalled Five News when asked what the tax breaks would be, offering a line which should inspire confidence in all parents:

“We’re only going to announce one measure at a time. You have to look at all the measures together”.

Iain Duncan Smith floundered in a similar fashion when questioned, saying: “Like all these things, that will all be smoothed out as and when we reach the transitional point”. Thanks for that Iain. You may as well have stayed quiet.

But the prize for the most confused Tory MP has to go to Margot James. The Stourbridge MP, who was elected in May, must have been delighted when she realised that the conference would be on her patch. What better opportunity to get in the local media than the whole conference jamboree coming to your backyard? Read the rest of this entry »

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