UNCUT: Spain faces up to unpleasant economic realities, says David Mathieson

25/07/2010, 11:20:54 PM

The celebratory soccer binge over, Spaniards are once again having to face up to some unpleasant economic realities and along with the rest of Europe Spain has just published the results of a stress test on its banking system.   A report on financial services would not normally be the stuff of conversation in the bars of Madrid but most people are aware that the consequences could be serious.   Apprehension has again replaced euphoria.  For Prime Minister Zapatero the findings will have far reaching political consequences: confidence in his socialist (PSOE) Government is at a record low and the revealed weaknesses in parts of the Spanish financial system will not improve the national mood.  So far, Spain has avoided a Greek style meltdown but renewed trust in the Spanish banking system is essential if Madrid is not to become the new Athens.

Up to now debate on the crisis in Spain has focussed on the state of the public finances and the growing fiscal deficit – the difference between the Government’s income and spending – which is now around 11.5% of annual income.   Over the last couple of years unemployment has soared to 20% – the fastest increase in Europe – and nearly two million people have stopped contributing to the social security system.  Consumption and investment have slowed (trade between the UK and Spain, for example, fell by more than 30% last year) and Government revenues have collapsed. 

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HOME: Caption contest, Rory Stewart special

25/07/2010, 08:15:50 PM

Captions please.

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HOME: The week Uncut

25/07/2010, 12:57:50 PM

It’s all about momentum. And team Ed M think they’ve got it. Miliband Jnr has hit his stride and has Miliband Snr in his sights. He picked up the backing of Unison this week and now looks certain to be backed by Unite on Monday. But will it be enough? 

Miliband Snr has got lots of pieces of paper with the Queen’s head on and fancies his chances. And the bookies seem to agree. Abbott, Balls and Burnham have been written off, long shot outsiders; the real money is falling on the Milibands, with David the odds on favourite.

The race is on the home straight. The Coalition is getting shaky, the sooner the Opposition is in place the better. Rumours of Ed Balls dropping out have been denied by his team. Diane has managed a whole week without picking on the boys and Andy Burnham is looking like the closest runner to the Milibrothers.

It’s been a busy week on Uncut. In case you missed them, here are half a dozen of Uncut’s best read pieces of the last seven days:

Ed Miliband on girls, gigs, baseball, cuts and co-operatives

Alistair Darling on the growth figures that vindicate Labour’s actions

A brutal assessment of the leadership candidates and contest from Dan Hodges

Hopi Sen gives his advice to the man (or woman) behind the man (or woman)

Peter Mandelson on the book, the candidates and the future

Young dynamism and old pragmatism, Shelly Asquith makes the case for Ken

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UNBOUND: Sunday News Review

25/07/2010, 09:06:39 AM

Balls out?

There are Westminster rumours that Ed Balls may be considering dropping out of leadership contest

The Unite union’s national policy committee overwhelmingly opted for Ed Miliband in a significant boost for the former climate change secretary’s campaign. Mr Balls had hoped to win Unite’s backing – but only secured four votes compared to Ed Miliband’s 24. The decision left him contemplating withdrawing from the fray and backing either Ed Miliband or his brother David, the former foreign secretary, who remains the bookies’ favourite. Both Miliband brothers were attempting to persuade Mr Balls, who has won Labour plaudits for his recent attacks on the decision by Michael Gove, the Education Secretary, to abandon plans to rebuild schools, to quit and support them. – The Telegraph

The main piece of hard information we have is that Balls will start well behind both Milibands in the Parliamentary third of the electoral college on the first round. Most, though not all, MPs first preferences are public. Left Foot Forward have estimated that Balls trails with 13.4% of this section behind David (38.9%) and Ed Miliband (27.9%). A winning Balls strategy would surely need to offet that deficit by topping the affiliated section, and doing so with a commanding double digit lead over at least one and preferably both Milibands there. – Next Left

More than 100 council leaders and Labour group leaders will today publish a letter backing Mr Miliband. A third of the votes in the Labour Party election will come from grassroots members. Last week bookies cut the odds on David’s closest rival – his brother Ed – after he received the support of most of Britain’s major trade unions. And yesterday Ed was backed by the Unite, in a severe blow to leadership contender Ed Balls, who had close ties with the union. But the turnout in the leadership ballot will be far lower among trade unionists than grassroots party members. – News of the World

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UNCUT: Opposition has a lure like crack cocaine to some Labour activists, writes Helen Liddell

24/07/2010, 02:30:36 PM

I turn my back for five minutes – well, four and a half years – and meerkats rule the advertising world and the Lib Dems show their true colours. Enough to  make me turn around and head back to Australia.

Those halcyon days with Labour Governments in Australia and Britain did help us leverage a progressive agenda together on the world stage. Who can forget Kevin Rudd, within days of his election as Aussie PM, signing the Kyoto protocol, neutralising the last alliance the Bush administration had on denying climate change.

 The financial crisis saw Brown and Rudd redefine world economic geography by creating a more meaningful G20 with the world’s emerging nations instead of the Rich Man’s Club of the G 8.

Labor chose the first ever woman Governor General, a human rights lawyer at that – and she took her oath of office wearing the purple of the suffragettes. Some Sheila.

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UNCUT: I don’t want a new best friend. I want a Labour Prime Minister

24/07/2010, 12:00:21 PM

Back  in 1994 Tony Blair sealed the deal with many of us when he was billed as “the man the Tories most fear”. After the crushing blow of losing in 1992 we wanted a winner. Damn his policies! As the late Tony Banks exclaimed “my members will eat shit to see a Labour government”.

Blair was given enormous latitude. The party was desperate to break its losing streak. We got hooked on successful – but corrosive – habits about stifling internal debate and adopting an approach to discipline that would make a Gordonstoun headmaster blush. But that approach helped keep us in power for 13 years; albeit with a long trail of political capital and supporters leaching out on the road behind us.

We now find ourselves in the middle of Labour’s first truly modern leadership campaign; one that eschews the left/right factionalism of the past and the fatalism we used to have about whether we could actually win power at all. It is opening up debate in a way that we are unused to.

But we have to be careful we don’t overuse our new gifts. There is a balance to be struck between embracing the party’s new glasnost and forgetting the old ways – and why we adopted them in the first place.

At the moment, there’s a lot of tummy tickling going on but not much vision. We need a discussion about how do we equip ourselves for a world where coalition governments may become commonplace. Where there is less money to spend our way to our social democratic nirvana. Where we articulate our own version of The Big Society. Where we back up our grand rhetoric on localism and environmentalism with real commitments next time. But these kind of hard-edged issues are simply not breaking through. Read the rest of this entry »

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UNBOUND: Saturday News Review

24/07/2010, 09:42:49 AM

Cash money

David Miliband has raised more in donations than any of the other candidates

David Miliband, the frontrunner in the Labour leadership contest, has raised at least £200,000, his campaign has revealed, as the disparity in financial backing for the five candidates emerges as a big issue. Two wealthy donors have each given him £50,000, sparking accusations within the party that the former foreign secretary is deploying far more staff than his rivals and is in danger of “buying the election” with “Blairite” support. – The Guardian

Apathy

More than 2 million people have a vote in the Labour leadership election, which will trudge on through the summer to a crescendo on 25 September. But how many will avail themselves of the chance to vote must be a cause for concern. The Society of Labour Lawyers has completed a ballot of its 598 members to decide which candidates would receive the society’s formal backing. Labour lawyers, you might think, would be among the more motivated sections of the electorate, yet turn out in this ballot was a dismal eight per cent. In other word, 48 out of 598 bothered to vote. The result was Ed Miliband 18, David Miliband 17, Diane Abbott 8, Andy Burnham 9, and Ed Balls nil. If that reflects the level of enthusiasm, it is not going to be a resounding mandate. – The Independent

The contest has raised barely an eyebrow of public interest, though whoever wins may find low expectations a blessing. There is nowhere to go but up, as opinion polls offer cold comfort. Guardian readers should not be deceived by our daily reasoned critiques of profoundly misguided government policies. The coalition may be about to crash the economy, shipwreck the NHS and splinter the education system but the public does not agree, as yet. The coalition’s honeymoon may last a while. – The Guardian

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UNCUT: Today’s growth figures vindicate the action Labour took, argues Alistair Darling

23/07/2010, 02:30:44 PM

Today figures show the results of the Labour Government’s balanced approach to supporting the recovery. And they remind us of the threat posed by the coalition’s willingness to take risks. 

This is the fastest growth we have seen for over four years. It shows that confidence was returning. And you can see the success of maintaining support for important sectors like construction. This is the final nail in the coffin of the Coalition’s argument that things are worse than they believed before the election. Today’s figures show that growth was twice as fast as expected.

The Coalition’s economic policy is not inevitable – it’s the choice they’ve made. And they will have to accept responsibility for the risks they are taking with the economy.

As I have consistently argued, withdrawing help to the economy now puts growth in jeopardy and could be more costly in the long run if more people lose their jobs. It is increasingly clear that we’re seeing the return to politics of a serious ideological debate. This  government’s clear and overriding priority is to cut back the state. Otherwise they would not announce cuts with such relish Read the rest of this entry »

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UNCUT: Labour must show it could cut the deficit and drive growth and the jobs of the future, argues Pat McFadden

23/07/2010, 10:49:13 AM

The Tories have a clear plan for their austerity programme which is to discredit Labour’s economic record, blame the situation they inherited from Labour for all the cuts they will make and suggest that anyone who doesn’t support their programme has no worthwhile economic proposition at all. 

 It is a plan which should be challenged at each point.  But it would also be a mistake to suggest that anyone on the centre left who wanted to address the issue of the deficit was somehow endorsing the Tory plan.  That isn’t true and would appear to suggest that there was no worthwhile difference between the plans on which Labour and the Conservatives fought the election. 

Yet the difference between the two parties is being felt every day in issues from the abandoned school building programme to cancelled regeneration projects and support for key industrial projects such as the Sheffield Forgemasters plan to make Britain a key player in the worldwide civil nuclear supply chain.

Labour won power in 1997 partly because we had worked hard to develop economic competence, to move on from a reputation for having big hearts but soft heads when it came to the nation’s finances.  We didn’t lose that focus in government.  We presided over the biggest increase in GDP per head in the G7 between 1997 and 2009, even after taking into account the financial crisis.

Of course the global financial crisis and our response – designed to stop recession turning into depression – meant borrowing was raised but this was a choice, a judgement we made. 

Labour fought the election on a plan to reduce the deficit over a longer timescale, with a different balance between spending reductions and tax measures and with key priorities protected.  That plan would have required some tough decisions and there’s no getting away from that.  We had already announced some spending reductions in the PBR last year and had proposed for example changes to civil service redundancy terms.  But Labour’s approach would have been very different to the Tory plan now being rammed through, a plan characterised by deep cuts started before recovery is established, with no regard for the impact on the private sector or future industrial opportunities for the country.

Labour’s plan would have had, at its heart, an active role for Government in promoting growth and ensuring Britain tried to develop key capability in areas of future employment growth such as low carbon vehicles, the digital economy, green energy and other areas.

The Tory deficit plan pays no regard to these areas.  This week’s document issued on this had little to say.  In fact, in addition to cancelling the Forgemasters loan the Government seems to be giving up on plans for a Green Investment Bank.  And their plans for abolishing the RDAs and cutting support for the regions will make recovery and growth even harder to achieve.

Cutting the deficit in the way they are doing is faith based economics, with the Tories playing the role of high priests and the Lib Dems displaying the zeal of the recently converted.

The challenge for the Labour Party is to address the deficit in a way that also includes a drive for the growth and jobs of the future.  And that’s a far cry from what the Tories and Lib Dems are doing.

The Rt Hon Pat McFadden is MP for Wolverhampton South East  and Shadow Secretary of State for Business

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UNBOUND: Friday News Review

23/07/2010, 08:30:10 AM

 Leadership Contest

“I am an economic realist. The public finances need addressing. Labour’s plans would halve the budget deficit and remove the bulk of the structural deficit in four years. It is the sensible, credible middle-ground between extreme cuts and unchecked spending. But the government’s proposals, designed without an escape hatch in the event of slowing growth, reflect ideology, not realism” – David Miliband, Financial Times.

 Ed, the younger of the two Miliband brothers, has been heavily supported with Coral bookmakers in the last two days to be the next Labour Leader, and has been slashed in price to 13-8 (from 9-4). David is still the odds-on favourite at 1-2. – Live Odds and Scores.

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