by Samuel Dale
As Labour continues its march into wilderness, the Tories are free to do whatever they choose. They can march rightwards and fulfill their Thatcherite dreams for the next ten years, or they can hold the centre or move leftwards and dominate for 20 more years.
It’s an incredible choice. And after today’s speech by George Osborne it is crystal clear the Tories are going to hold the centre.
While Labour shows breath-taking arrogance after a stunning defeat, the Tories are showing incredible humility after an epic victory.
Osborne said he would listen to new ideas and pledged to win over many who voted Labour at the 2010 election. Trying to win over voters from the other side instead of insulting them. Now there’s a novel idea.
Here is the key passage talking about the 10 million Labour voters in 2010.
“We’ve got to understand their reservations. So to these working people who have been completely abandoned by a party heading off to the fringes of the left let us all here today extend our hand.
“Do you know what the supporters of the new Labour leadership now call anyone who believes in strong national defence, a market economy, and the country living within its means?
“They call them Tories. Well, it’s our job to make sure they’re absolutely right.”
The election of Jeremy Corbyn was Labour’s suicide pill and George Osborne is pumping bullets into the lifeless corpse just to make sure.
Osborne wants Labour moderates and he is woo-ing them with a series of centre-left policies.
The summer Budget was the start with promises of a higher minimum wage of £9 by 2020, an apprenticeship levy on business, a crackdown on corporate tax avoidance, reforms non-dom taxes and cutting back tax relief for buy-to-let landlords.
He’s also worked with Labour councils on the northern powerhouse, legitimately claiming a cross-party victory.
And that was before Corbyn. The opportunities are greater now and Osborne has gone even further into opposition territory by nabbing Labour’s promises for a National Infrastructure Commission and devolving business rates. He’s even convinced Lord Adonis to quit the Labour whip and run the commission.
Osborne is love-bombing Labour voters and expanding the Tories’ appeal into the north, Wales and maybe even Scotland. Anecdotally, I already know a handful of lifelong Labour voters who are going Tory next time.
Osborne is also changing boundaries to give the Tories a de facto majority of 50 in 2020 even if they stand still. The law is also allowing expats, who are more likely to be Conservative to have a permanent vote. And the Trade Union Bill is defunding the Labour party just at a time when its moderate donors abandon Corbyn.
That is what a political strategy looks like for 2020.
Meanwhile Labour is pursuing a fantasy strategy of winning over non-voters. There are three key problems with it.
Firstly, it can’t be done. Corbyn is a bland, uninspiring wet fish who will convince none of the millions of non-voters to turn up. His personal ratings are, unsurprisingly, the lowest of any political leader on record. Non-voters will stay non-voters.
Secondly, there is no evidence that the one-third of voters who choose not to turn up on election day are all frustrated socialists. Studies show they are more reflective of those who already vote so you would likely see a bigger turnout with the same result. Australia, where voting is compulsory, has a Conservative Government and Labour has only been in power for six out of the last 18 years.
Thirdly, as the Fabian Society points out, 18 of the top 20 constituencies with the lowest turnout are Labour seats so getting non-voters to turn out for Labour would mean bigger majorities but few, if any, extra seats.
Wining millions of Tory votes is the only path to a Labour majority and that means moving towards them but the leadership aren’t interested.
The gulf in political nous between the parties is a gaping chasm. It is professionals against amateurs. Men against boys. Fantasists against realists. Ideologues against pragmatists.
Sure, there are problems facing Tories in the next few years from the impact of draconian tax credit cuts to a divisive EU referendum but none compare to the daily chaos of an irrelevant Labour under Corbyn.
I know it’s uncouth to talk about building winning coalitions in today’s Labour party. It’s all about purity, singing the Red Flag and shouting “Tory scum” on protest marches.
But this is the most dangerous moment in the party’s history by far and someone has to think about a way back after Corbyn.
The Tory party is moving onto our territory and Labour is simply running up the white flag. Let’s hope there is a way back.
Sam Dale is a financial and political journalist
Tags: centre ground, Conservative conference 2015, George Osborne, Jeremy Corbyn, non-voters, Samuel Dale
I often wonder if people like Samuel are only in the Labour Party for tribal reasons. If the Tories win through the sort of centrist policies that he likes, what is the problem for him?
Jeremy Hunts remarks concerning reform of tax credits and how they will make people in this country work as hard as Americans and Asians sound pretty ideological. Even if Osbourne is sincere in his wish to move to the centre ground I’m not urge he knows how to.
‘I often wonder if people like Samuel are only in the Labour Party for tribal reasons. If the Tories win through the sort of centrist policies that he likes, what is the problem for him?’
Its like one of those bridges that open up to let ships through. Labour and the Tories can be very close on policies at some times, but ultimately the bridge will open and you’ve got to decide which side you want to be on.
Like night follows day a brilliant analysis of where Labour are is followed up by comments denouncing the messenger or completely misunderstanding tory strategy altogether.
Osborne is probably one of the greatest political strategists there’s been. Hunt is simply flotsam on the Tory waters that’ll be tossed aside by Cameron.
For Labour it’s not really about whether the Tories CAN fix themselves on the centre ground – it’s whether Labour can challenge them and how they can do that.
Labour aren’t even reaching Everest base camp while the Tories are a fifth of the way up the mountain sweet talking the gurkhas.
A Corbynite friend told me that he didn’t care about winning elections as he’d joined Labour as he had for the first time a party with which he agreed. Labour he said shared his values and beliefs. Well that’s nice – let’s all climb on the happy clappy bandwagon to nowhere.
He also said that `Corbyn was addressing issues` – that’s like saying that the issues of climate change are being addressed by Thomas Shafernaker.
Sam Dale said “ The Tory party is moving onto our territory and Labour is simply running up the white flag
Well, err no and not really in my view.
NOs.
# The Tories believe in a smaller state. Period. Labour believe in more state = better..
# The Tories believe in individuality and the rewards for individuals being largely retained by individuals. Labour most clearly do not- they have to tax more to fund a bigger state.
# The Tories believe that generous benefits act as a disincentive to work. Labour under Corbyn think there should be no cap on benefits. EdM was lukewarm on caps and Brown expanded benefits.
# The Tories at least try to be economically competent at times. Labour pay lip service to the idea whilst promising to spend more – always.
# On immigration the Parties are continents apart.
NOT REALLYs
# The Tories want an end to Working Tax Credits and hence employer subsidies. Hence the need to raise the Minimum Wage to prevent SOME employers not paying enough. And forestalling mass rioting from those who work and see no way of paying their bills.
# The Tories see their demographic voters being elderly and southerly. So engaging with the North is key… (pity about Northern football clubs being so badly managed).
So although the Tories are encroaching on the centre, it’s necessity for the future driving the Tories.The need to win northern younger voters. Not any narrowing of differences in political beliefs. The opposite is true.. the direction the Labour Party and its activists is going must persuade any and every Tory supporter they, the Tories = correct and Labour = seriously and dangerously deluded.
It’s going to get even more marked.
And when you have muppets like this – see below – then frankly Labour is lost..
CWU Terry Pullinger says he’s glad labour lost the election as now they have Corbyn. @LucyMPowell mouths ‘I’m not clapping that!’
http://tinyurl.com/peg96w3
“Winning millions of Tory votes is the only path to a Labour majority and that means moving towards them but the leadership aren’t interested.”
The Labour leadership aren’t interested, nor the majority of the new Labour membership, nor the Unions who fund Labour. The Hard Left revolution is almost complete. Next comes the purges. After that I don’t think there’s going to be anyone left to think about a way back.
When Chuka Umunna quits politics (an careerist rat leaving the sinking ship, about 2018/19 I reckon) you’ll know the Labour party is irreversibly changed.
so, how many years are you suggesting moderates waste on a Party that you admit may not be salvageable for your politics. Why not just “Let it Go” & join The Libdems.
‘I often wonder if people like Samuel are only in the Labour Party for tribal reasons. If the Tories win through the sort of centrist policies that he likes, what is the problem for him?’
I suspect that, like a lot of people who previously voted Conservative but changed to Labour in 97, there’s little problem for him. The problem is for Labour if it wants to govern and to do things which the Tories wouldn’t do but which current Tory supporters could live with if done by a Labour government that they didn’t think would be a disaster.
Thanks for the Blairite article Samuel. Directly out of the Tory Wing of the Labour Party. All those who voted for Kendall/Cooper are closer to the Tory Party than they are to the original outlook of the Labour Party. I just wish you would all leave and join the Tories which is your natural home. Like Prentice did in the 70s. The Prenticeites took over the LP. Now it is time to do the honourable thing and do what Tory Reg did.
Interesting approach.
Demonstrators condemned for shouting Tory Scum but it’s perfectly ok to title an article Pragmatists vs ideologues. Realists vs fantasists and then pour insult, ridicule and scorn on the majority of the people in the party I assume you to be a member of. Abuse, it would appear, is perfectly acceptable if it’s polite, given in received pronunciation and preferably delivered by a person in business dress.
Well I am fiercely proud of being working class and a few angry expletives and the judicious use of Anglo saxon language is normal and largely acceptable, especially when aimed at the people who have shown on so many occasions to be our enemies, ie. Tories. Though for all too long folk like myself felt uncomfortable rather than proud as we became marginalised, ignored and unwelcome as the party tried to out Tory the Tories so I guess you’re not used to this behaviour.
On the other hand, the complete lack of fraternal criticism in the article above and the disparaging manner in which the majority of the party are discussed is deeply offensive. You clearly hate what has happened to the party, fair enough, but party discipline should kick in here and judicious language to Party member I would have imagined to be a prerequisite.
Well, if the right of the party continue with their methods, this article showing their anger and disgust at us and the Machavellian plotting by others, then I for one can’t wait for a special conference so the insignificant rump of 4.5% who are currently making such a rumpus are dealt with, in a usual proletarian manner. Then you really will have the chance to call us uncouth.
But who are the “Pragmatists” and who are the “Realists”?
Not the Tories, that’s for sure. They pumped up a credit bubble to win the election but that’s meant that house prices have jumped out of reach of many and they’ve alienated a whole generation.
Even worse will be the period of severe recession that is about to come. The Tories will say it isn’t their boom which has bust – they’ll probably try to blame the Chinese and/or the eurozone.
The next few years are going to be interesting but not pretty! There will be lots of social strife as the economic situation collapses. Its will be worse than the early 90’s when the Lawson housing bubble burst. Then the govt had the option of reducing interest rates to stimulate the economy. They don’t have that now. There’s only the option of deficit spending and they are ideologically opposed to that.
The author is a Labour member? But why?
Osborne is well to the right of politics – this is not centrist ideology. It may be that the public is skewed to the right which is another issue. But these ideas are clearly right wing and would not be supported by Labour
Labour cannot move towards these sort of ideas without abandoning being Labour altogether.
What looks very much like happening is this:
Corbyn will turn the Labour movement, already stripped of its historic industrial base, into the Liberals of the 1920s – still there – just. SNP and Greens may well join up too.
The Conservatives will split in half over Associated membership of the EU. Mr Cameron;s lot will go off one way and the Boris (?) lot go off the other. I suspect that a lot of Labour people will drift off that way too.
Ukip has actually reformed without Nigel Farage. Go on the website and see for yourself. It appeals to an awful lot of Labour voters.
Its a very strange situation, looking at the protesters outside the Tory conference they seem to be totally unaware of how much damage they are doing to the reputation of “the left” and therefore Labour. Corbyn turning up on Monday evening links him to these protests. That level of naivety is going to be impossible to deal with, if he can’t even see that that wasn’t a good idea there is no hope.
For the Corbyn supporters, apart from the wishful thinking about non-voters the other strategies for winning appear to be the expectation of another financial crash which will sweep Corbyn to power, and the even stranger belief that the support for Corbyn is a true reflection of the feeling of the whole country, they are not a vocal minority they speak for everyone.
Arguing against these illogical positions is pointless. So Osborne shifting a little to the left is a very sensible thing for him to do, and all I have learnt is that understanding how to win elections is a rarer skill than I thought it was.
There is always a problem with assuming that you somehow see things more clearly than others who are supposedly misled by ideology or fantasy
The biggest fantasy is thinking that you can somehow stand outside of ideology and be merely ‘realistic’. This was a difficultly for the Blairites in the leadership election, whose approach at times mirrored far left sects in their condescension to others on the left.
What was presented as realism/pragmatism was often re-heated 1990s ‘third way’ ideology, which tended to ignore how much has changed (Scotland, to mention only one factor).
There’s a very good article on the subject in the New Statesman..
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2015/09/jeremy-corbyn-and-nirvana-fallacy
It’s well worth reading even if only to disagree with it…
Sean, the person who introduced clause 4 was Ramsay Mcdonald Socialsism in the20’s wasn’t even left wing, and Left dozens time an liberal,
Remind me how many elections we an after the hard left took over the party in the 70’s
Mike homfray how do you know what the labour is or should Stan door ,when you weren’t t a member between 2003-2010′ and can you actually prove there’s a quote in the party rules ,saying some sort of policies that are so far too the left ,its actually better to lose on and never hold power as a principle,
Mike Homfray you obviously didn’t realize the tores won the election by getting th event re vote,which is where the public think it is, and that Ukip got the right vote
We don’t want any of this arty farty Islington nonsense. JC will have to move towards the centre ground whether he likes it or not. That’s being pragmatic. In a way its like Trump, who may be an idiot at times, but says sensible things on the Russian involvement in Syria if the Russians can take out IS and the rag bag of Militias against the Assad Regime, all to the good; nobody has a clue who these rag bag rebels are, more lilely to be islamofacists than anything else. Better the devil Assad than the rag bag Rebel Militias. That is being pragmatic. Corbyn needs to spell out the truth to the people of Britain who have been lied to by politicians for the past 50 years and more.
The Russians saved the world from the Nazi peril in 1942, now they can save us from the islamofacist peril in 2015.
20 years eh ,I thought a week was a long time in politics .Still whats an extra 19years and 51 weeks .Will lord m still be around then ?
“swatantra says:
October 7, 2015 at 5:53 pm
We don’t want any of this arty farty Islington nonsense. JC will have to move towards the centre ground whether he likes it or not. That’s being pragmatic.”
Sorry but Corbyn does not do pragmatism. And pragmatism involves compromise. Corbyn does not do compromise.
See the story about Corbyn swearing his Privy Council Oath. Now it’s basically a nonsense story but it is symptomatic of the man. He does not believe in the monarchy nor in kneeling to the Queen. So he’s “too busy” to attend a meeting at which he has to swear the Privy Council Oath. Thus making a non-story into one.
If he had stated he did not believe in the monarchy, would not kneel but take the oath standing, his principles are intact. But he is “too busy” to attend.. (he may be of course but that is not the point.)
BTW, not swearing Oath = non-membership = no security briefings. So not an academic issue.
All he is doing is using his beliefs to confirm to voters he is “anti British” as alleged by Cameron in his speech the day before. Or apparently so.
Man is a walking PR disaster area as far as winning votes from everyone but Labour activists. And of course your personal beliefs stand for nothing is you cannot implement policies based on them as you are not in power.
Labour are run by a man with a cult status. The SNP were once a cult and then became pragmatic and won power. Labour were once in power, have become a left wing cult and look like heading for the political wilderness.
Good oh. JC publicly snubbed the Queen today. As its going to take about 6 to 9 months of unforced political blunders and atrocious polling before he is removed the sooner we start the better.
I don’t believe the commentators on this blog have any idea of just what’s in store in the next few years. Things aren’t just going tick along as they have been for the last few years. There’s a BIG recession coming. Imagine if someone had said in 2006 that there were big problems ahead and the govt would need QE in the hundred of billions to get them out of a fix. How extreme would they have sounded?
If I’m wrong about the coming recession, and we do see steady growth in the next 5 years, then Jeremy Corbyn’s idea of People’s Quantitative Easing will look foolish. If I’m right he’ll look to have been prophetic and offering new ideas when everyone else was only concerned with balancing the budget. Just like Philip Snowden was in the 30’s. Remember him? No? That’s because, even though he had good socialist ideas, his understanding of economics was lacking. He couldn’t see that living “within our means” in monetary terms was different to within the actual means which are available to us. ie all natural resources and the talents of all workers within our borders.
Most people in the present day Labour party, some even on the left, but mainly on the right, haven’t grasped that difference either.
One thing is certain : some LP members on this blog will not be voting for a JC led LP at the next GE. Now there’s party loyalty for you! Members of the LP who will, in all probability, vote against it at the next GE.
You know, there may well come a time, perhaps in early 2018 as the emerging markets crises continue, slowing Chinese growth is pushing the world economy into another slump and at home towel folder George discovers that the housing and credit bubbles can be inflated no further, when Corbyn’s Labour takes a commanding lead in polls.
At that point, many contributors to this blog, several Labour MPs and a small sliver of the Labour membership may really start to ask themselves if they’d prefer a Labour government led by Corbyn or a Tory government led by Osborne, Johnson or even May. We could call it the Harry Perkins test. Perhaps some, like the author of this article, should spare themselves the heartache and spare us reading this sort of tripe by taking the test now and then doing the decent thing. You shan’t be missed.
@TC Come 2017 or 2018 you would expect Labour to have a lead in the polls, Oppositions ususually get a lead in mid-term. During the last mid-term Labours lead averaged 11% but when The Election came The Tories got a lead of 7%. Theres nothing new or surprising about any of this but jounalists & Politicians have short memories.
When Labour start gettin leads in the polls just compare them with the figures from 5 years before.
When certain contributors start wishing for an economic calamity to deliver their Party a winning position, you know they are desperate..
And if we DO have another big crash, guess who will suffer the worst?Not the rich but the poor..
PS : and if you thinka Conservative Government would not use QE to alleviate anotehr crash, you are naive…
@ Paul, Yes I agree with that, which was why I said commanding lead. My point, however, was about some Labour members, including most of the contributors to this blog, may well prefer a Tory government to a Labour one led by Corbyn, and if that’s the case, they ought to consider what they are doing in the Labour party.
“Demonstrators condemned for shouting Tory Scum but it’s perfectly ok to title an article Pragmatists vs ideologues. Realists vs fantasists and then pour insult, ridicule and scorn on the majority of the people in the party”
Are you seriously equating the two?
An article on the internet is read only by people who want to be their. It’s quiet, text based, and not at all intimidating. It’s not even pushing itself at your email inbox. And you can leave it and go somewhere else whenever you like.
A world of difference between this and real world intimidation, harassment and being spat on. Look, you can even call people Tory scum on this page if you want.
Seriously, think through your comparisons. There are forms of condemnation which it is absolutely appropriate to make, and then there’s bullying.
“Demonstrators condemned for shouting Tory Scum but it’s perfectly ok to title an article Pragmatists vs ideologues. Realists vs fantasists and then pour insult, ridicule and scorn on the majority of the people in the party”
Are you seriously equating the two?
An article on the internet is read only by people who want to be there. It’s quiet, text based, and not at all intimidating. It’s not even pushing itself at your email inbox. And you can leave it and go somewhere else whenever you like.
A world of difference between this and real world intimidation, harassment and being spat on. Look, you can even call people Tory scum on this page if you want.
Seriously, think through your comparisons. There are forms of condemnation which it is absolutely appropriate to make, and then there’s bullying.