by David Ward
Labour been largely out of the limelight in recent weeks as the EU referendum approaches. So savage has been the feuding on the Tory benches, Labour almost seems like a confused onlooker at a wedding where a punch up has broken out among other people’s relatives.
Perhaps because of this a strange mood seems to have broken out among some activists and commentators. Labour supporters laugh behind their sleeves at the latest developments. In the Times a few days ago, Adam Boulton speculated “If the Tory civil war rages on, Jeremy Corbyn may not be so unelectable after all, especially if he can forge some kind of red-tartan coalition”.
In these idle daydreams one imagines the timeline would begin with a narrow remain win, sparking a Conservative leadership challenge. The challenge finishes Cameron, or fatally wounds him, and an unpopular brexiteer is picked to replace him for the next election. Who knows if Labour would win, but it looks more winnable. And that can only be a good thing right?
Maybe, but maybe not. Let’s think these scenarios through. Let’s imagine Cameron is challenged for the leadership this year. There’s no guarantee he would lose. He would then be a Prime Minister who had faced down his own party twice and just won a renewed mandate as leader. He could use the opportunity to renege on his promise to step down. Or wait for the economy to improve and pass on to a preferred successor.
Even assuming he is forced out and replaced with a Leaver, the new Prime Minister would be faced with calls to call an election this year. Just as Gordon Brown was. He/she would remember Tory mocking of ‘Bottler Brown’ from 2007, and how that turned out for him. Ask yourself, is Labour in any fit state to win an election right now?
Several donors are reported to be turning their backs on the party over its present direction. Can you close your eyes and imagine Corbyn beating Boris or a steely performer like Andrea Leadsom? There’s a danger the result could make 2015 look good.
Moreover, regardless of who Labour faces or when the next election is, there’s evidence it is not the Conservative vote that will suffer from the EU contest. As Philip Walker, a Labour candidate at the 2015 election, has shown. His analysis of Yougov data shows a third of 2015 Labour voters backed leaving the EU. 42% of those say they would not vote for the party today. By contrast the Conservatives look likely to retain 68% of those who support leaving the EU.
Corbyn has been criticised in some quarters for not shouting loud enough for the Remain campaign to turn out Labour voters. According to the Guardian, half of Labour voters don’t know the party wants to stay in.
After the Labour leader’s speech last week, which was ostensibly making the case to Remain, it’s doubtful if many are any clearer on his actual position.
But in some ways, maybe Jeremy Corbyn’s better off staying quiet.
As Kevin Meagher has pointed out on Uncut around immigration, Labour’s arguments on the EU can appear blasé or irritating to some of our traditional supporters. We only have to look at the recent Scottish referendum to see how that situation can end.
Maybe the armchair optimists are right, and the Conservative civil war will somehow permanently damage the brand speeding their exit from government.
I have a nagging worry this could be another accidental masterstroke from Cameron. One which pushes Labour further from voters courted by UKIP in its Northern and Midlands heartlands.
Meanwhile the Conservatives pick themselves up from their family fisticuffs, pat themselves on the back, and get another round in at the bar. As the police turn up and arrest the Labour contingent by accident.
David Ward is a Labour campaigner in south London
Tags: David Cameron, david ward, EU referendum, immigration, Jeremy Corbyn, UKIP
Amongst street level working/unemployed people there is a feeling that Labour have got this completely wrong. They are not for the EU and never will be.
Why Corbyn changed his stance on the EU can never be understood.
Amongst street level working/unemployed people there is a feeling that Labour have got this completely wrong. They are not for the EU and never will be.
Why Corbyn changed his stance on the EU can never be understood.
I don’t know any Labour voters or members round here that are voting Remain. Most are voting for Out and the rest not bothering. Likewise, of all the Plaid voters and members I know around half are voting for Out.
Corbyn has shot himself in the foot by backing Remain when everyone knows he is anti-EU. (Likewise to a lesser degree with McDonnell who was also outspokenly anti-EU but is now suddenly remain).
To voters it means he can’t be believed over anything if he’s willing to be duplicitous over something as big as this.
It would be so funny as well if we vote to Leave – imagine if he and McDonnell had remained true to their beliefs, they’d be bloody heros and Labour would be a shoe-in for 2020.
Wheras now, no matter what happens, he’ll just be another lying untrustworthy bastard like all the rest.
“South Wales will be among the most pro-leave places in all of the UK,” said Roger Scully, professor of politics at Cardiff University.”
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/07/nye-bevan-labour-heartland-backing-brexit-south-wales
Tafia is basically saying everybody I know is voting out. Meaningless.
Everybody I know is voting Remain. Meaningless – just the circles you move in.
Actually Labour support splits with a clear majority for Remain. The problem will be turnout.
Corbyn’s position is smart – don’t join the Establishment campaign, that’s the way you take the real hit, as in Scotland.
It’s a socialist Remain – remain and reform, Another Europe is Possible.
I dont much care how Labour campaign for Remain as lonf as they do something. Its not just Corbyn keeping quiet its the whole Party. Its as if Labour have gone on a collective holiday.
Tafia is basically saying everybody I know is voting out. Meaningless.
I’m a workplace union rep in quite a large workplace (over 1500 employees) that is also quite heavily unionised (yet the majority of the ones that vote vote Plaid and more than half the union reps are Plaid members like me). I come into contact with a lot of people through that. I am also a member of and active in Plad Cymru – and come into an awful lot of people through that, not to mention we have just had the Assembly Elections where I spent every night and every weekend for four weeks door-stepping and came into a fair few people of all political persuasions while doing that.
Wales on paper should be quite heavily Remain when you consider that the official Labour, Lib Dem and Plaid position is Remain and the amount of EU regional funding it receives. Latest polling shows it’s running fairly evens-stevens with the last three (2 in May 1 in June) showing R41 L39, R40 L39, and R41 L41. That I would suggest means that people who should be Remain aren’t because of major structural problems with Remain’s argument along with general dissatisfaction with what the EU is and how it is run.
Remarkable if ‘the majority of those that vote, vote Plaid’ when PC only got 13% of the vote in the Assembly elections.
Observer bias I’d suggest.
Of course Remain have a rubbish campaign, they may even lose but let’s be clear that as you move from from right to left in the electorate the support for Remain goes up – UKIP with least, then Tories, Libs, Labour – biggest support.
Paul Barker – there is a Labour In Campaign and Corbyn is active in it – its ignored by the media who are transfixed by the Tory Psychdrama.
Remarkable if ‘the majority of those that vote, vote Plaid’ when PC only got 13% of the vote in the Assembly elections.
I live and work in the constituency of Ynys Mon. During last months Assembly election the Plaid vote in this constituency was 54.8%. The Labour vote (in second place) was 17%. In last years General Election the Parliamentary constituency of Ynys Mon the Plaid vote was 30.5% running-up to Labour who got 31.1%. It is very difficult on Ynys Mon to find people who do not vote either Plaid or Labour.
Nationally, in last month’s Assembly Elections Plaid took 20.5% of the constituency votes compared to Labour’s 34.7% and in the Regional top-up Plaid took 20.8% to Labour’s 31.5%. Across Wales in GE 2015 Plaid took 12.1% of the vote, but most of the candidates were only ‘paper’ candidates and all the resources were poured into 6 seats in particular, 3 of which they won and the other three they nearly won (1,600 votes spread across the three they came runners-up would have seen those go Plaid).
As a comparison across both the General Election and the more recent Assembly election, across the constituencies of Wales the parties polled as follows:-
Welsh Labour: 2016 34.7% / 2015 36.9%
Welsh Conservatives: 2016 21.1% / 2015 27.2%
Plaid Cymru: 2016 20.5% / 2015 12.1%
UKIP: 2016: 12.5% / 2015: 13.6%
Welsh LibDems 2016: 7.7% / 2015: 6.5%
(notice how UKIPs support was actually falling even though the referendum was becoming more high profile. Something the analysts in Cardiff were quick to pick up on)
For your comment as you move from from right to left in the electorate the support for Remain goes up – UKIP with least, then Tories, Libs, Labour – biggest support. to hold water, the Plaid vote, the Labour vote and the Lib Dem vote should ensure Remain are firmly way in front in Wales. But they aren’t. Which means significant chunks of supporters (approximately one third at least) from pro-EU parties in Wales are voting for Leave.
Remarkable if ‘the majority of those that vote, vote Plaid’ when PC only got 13% of the vote in the Assembly elections.
I live and work in the constituency of Ynys Mon. During last months Assembly election the Plaid vote in this constituency was 54.8%. The Labour vote (in second place) was 17%. In last years General Election the Parliamentary constituency of Ynys Mon the Plaid vote was 30.5% running-up to Labour who got 31.1%. It is very difficult on Ynys Mon to find people who do not vote either Plaid or Labour.
Nationally, in last month’s Assembly Elections Plaid took 20.5% of the constituency votes compared to Labour’s 34.7% and in the Regional top-up Plaid took 20.8% to Labour’s 31.5%. Across Wales in GE2015 Plaid took 12.1% of the vote , but most of the candidates were only ‘paper’ candidates and all the resources were poured into 6 seats in particular, 3 of which they won and the other three they nearly won (1,600 votes spread across the three they came runners-up would have seen those go Plaid).
As a comparison across both the General Election and the more recent Assembly election, across the constituencies of Wales the parties polled as follows:-
Welsh Labour: 2016 34.7% / 2015 36.9%
Welsh Conservatives: 2016 21.1% / 2015 27.2%
Plaid Cymru: 2016 20.5% / 2015 12.1%
UKIP: 2016: 12.5% / 2015: 13.6%
Welsh LibDems 2016: 7.7% / 2015: 6.5%
(notice how UKIPs support was actually falling even though the referendum was becoming more high profile. Something the analysts in Cardiff were quick to pick up on)
For your comment as you move from from right to left in the electorate the support for Remain goes up – UKIP with least, then Tories, Libs, Labour – biggest support. to hold water, the Plaid vote, the Labour vote and the Lib Dem vote should ensure Remain are firmly way in front in Wales. But they aren’t. Which means significant chunks of supporters (approximately one third at least) from pro-EU parties in Wales are voting for Leave.
I see Burnham has started lining himself up to be leader post-Corbyn by sub-consciously appealing to blue collar Labour with his interview in the Mirror saying freedom of movemnt must end and highlighting east european migrants.
OK – so a load of workers vote PC in a PC stronghold – it doesn’t generalise.
As for how the votes go – we’ll see. I’m challenging the idea that Labour would be uniquely damaged by its support for Remain. However we’ll see.
Of course we now know that Tafia is a political opponent of ours.
Tafia’ interesting burnham has now said opposite, in press release, like the leadership all over again
Peter Kenny – so a load of workers vote PC in a PC stronghold – it doesn’t generalise.
You haven’t actually read the data from the Assembly elections have you and as a result have made yourself look a cock. The increase in the Plaid vote was in the traditionally Labour areas, hence why 6 safe Labour seats are now marginals.
Peter Kenny – Of course we now know that Tafia is a political opponent of ours.
Now a double cock. If you were a regular in here you would know I have been Plaid for years since I quit Labour over Iraq after having been a member and foot soldier since 1976. For you to only realise that now explains an awful lot about how Labour has fallen if you are representative of it’s support. Mind you, you couldnt even tell the difference between the general election and the assembly election.