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Ed Miliband has been lucky a leader in the past few weeks, but he’d be wise not to push it

10/10/2013, 01:06:52 PM

by Jonathan Todd

The energy companies are giving Ed Miliband the fight he wanted. Scottish and Southern Energy’s 8% price hike plays right into his narrative.

The Daily Mail created another one: a battle which made Labour’s leader the defender of family and veterans. And coincidentally sucked media oxygen out of a Tory conference where Cameron and his ministers were already struggling to respond to Labour’s energy price freeze.

Recent weeks have added ballast to the Labour strategy of making Miliband a speaker of truth to power. The claim to have “stopped the rush to war,” however, over does it. This argument founders on the rocks of Labour’s conditional support for strikes on Syria.

The moulding of Miliband as justice champion finds a better fit when he references standing up to Rupert Murdoch. Whether, however, deliberations on the Leveson report will reach the outcome that Miliband initially insisted seems doubtful. And whether voters are still paying attention is as uncertain.

The energy firms and the Daily Mail have, therefore, been important contributors to the muscular Miliband that he is building. It might be thought lucky that the energy firms provided the angry response that he sought. And while no one would wish to see relatives pilloried, the Daily Mail brought about a situation in which Miliband was the voice of the mainstream, as everyone would defend their dad.

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Jon Trickett’s appointment to run party reform tells us a lot about the leadership’s thinking

08/10/2013, 03:37:14 PM

by Atul Hatwal

The fate of the triumvirate of demoted Blairites – Jim Murphy, Liam Byrne and Stephen Twigg – has dominated reporting of Labour’s reshuffle. This is understandable.

It’s no coincidence that the cadre of senior shadow cabinet ministers most associated with Tony Blair were demoted while Brownite contemporaries from the same parliamentary generation remained untouched.

Despite the party spin about this being no cull of Blairites, bringing in some bright young things from the 2010 parliamentary intake who might once have danced to, “Things can only get better,” at a Labour students’ conference disco, sometime in the late nineties, hardly constitutes a like for like exchange.

It’s clear why the media would focus on these changes, if less explicable why each of the victims would accept such treatment rather than retain their political dignity on the backbenches.

But for all the columns of words expended considering these changes, they only obscure the most politically significant appointment: Jon Trickett as deputy chair to lead on party reform.

For Ed Miliband, the early part of next year will be defined by his efforts to reform Labour’s relationship with the unions. The first special conference in nearly twenty years will be the culmination of months of lobbying, campaigning and media briefing.

When Ed Miliband announced the Collins review, four MPs were highlighted as having roles in the process. Harriet Harman and Phil Wilson to lead the campaign in the country and Rachel Reeves and Jon Trickett to look at the potential for wider reforms.

Now Jon Trickett, a man steeped in the union movement and close to several of the leaders, has been appointed deputy party chair with lead responsibility for party reform, the dynamic has changed – and it reveals much of the leadership’s thinking.

At Labour conference, one of the persistent topics for discussion was whether Ed Miliband would be able to get his reforms through. There was a lot of shaking of heads at the prospect of the package passing the NEC, let alone even 10% of union members joining the party, given the majority of trade union leaders are so hostile.

The Trickett appointment sends a message that the Labour leadership are worried. This is not going to be a campaign where Ed Miliband appeals over the heads of union leaders to the rank and file membership of the Labour movement. Jon Trickett as deputy party chair tells us that Ed Miliband wants to do a deal with the union bosses.

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Despite his advances, Ed still has women problems

08/10/2013, 10:44:09 AM

by Kevin Meagher

Ed MIliband’s changes to the shadow cabinet yesterday have increased the number of women sitting at Labour’s top table to 44 per cent. Yet despite this symbolism, Labour’s support among ordinary women voters’ now lags behind men on a range of key political and economic issues.

Exclusive polling by YouGov for Labour Uncut reveals that while many women are unhappy with the coalition, they remain consistently less enthused than male voters that Labour has a coherent alternative.

While 31 per cent of men think a Labour government led by Ed Miliband will create ‘more jobs and reduce unemployment’, just 26 per cent of women feel the same.

Asked which party is best able to build more homes, 29 per cent of men say Labour but only 24 per cent of women.

Questioned about who will deliver ‘high standards of health in NHS hospitals’, 33 per cent of men support Labour, while only 27 per cent of women back the party’s approach, with 38 per cent of women saying neither Labour or the Tories.

While the Tories retain a large lead over Labour when it comes to ensuring ‘less crime’, the figures for women voters are stark, with 29 per cent backing the Tories and Labour left trailing on just 13 per cent.

And despite the party’s toughening stance on immigration, Labour remains behind the Tories on which party will deliver ‘the right level of immigration’ by a similarly large margin, with women voters choosing Cameron over Miliband by 23 per cent to 12 per cent.

The figures will come as a disappointment to Labour given the consistent efforts of the frontbench in articulating how the cost of living crisis is hurting families and spending cuts are particularly harshly felt by women.

The poll was commissioned for Labour Uncut to coincide with the publication of our new book ‘Labour’s manifesto uncut: How to win in 2015 and why’ which explores what the party needs to do to win the next general election and govern effectively afterwards.

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Letter from Wales: 57% of entire Welsh budget to be swiped by NHS in Wales by 2024-5!

04/10/2013, 08:54:06 AM

by Julian Ruck

At least according to a report written by Mark Jeffs of the Wales Audit Office.

He goes on, “Until we have a more efficient Welsh Government, which takes more seriously its role as a guardian of the public purse, speculation about future levels of public spending may continue.”

In other words, while the Welsh government continues to drag its knuckles across the floor of the Welsh Senate a right royal crisis is about to hit public services here in Wales. Black bag time again perhaps, except this time it won’t be the unions to blame.

And what was Carwyn saying last week at the Labour conference? Just to remind you, “Wales is a living, breathing example of what can be achieved in power.” It’s back up to Asda’s for another crate of Johnie Walker fast, I’m thinking.

The fact that the Welsh NHS is the subject of such public derision here in Wales, may well have something to do with the fact that we have academics of Welsh history running Health Boards, £655,000 a year on a ‘Cooking Bus’ ie a lorry filled to the brim with high tech cooking utensils intent on teaching Welsh pupils, parents and teachers how to cook, £9m on giving up the fags, exercise classes and mental health first aid (?) but here’s the rub, none of it has had any effect. It’s still corned beef pasties, Welsh faggots peas and chips all the way back from the pub – not to mention a 10 pack of Woodbines to help the journey along!

Even Dr Patricia Riorden, head honcho for Public Health Wales has had to admit and I quote (27.9.13 News Wales) “that we need to look forward to a whole transformational change.” ‘Transformational?’ You have blown millions of taxpayers’ money on causes that would shock a five year old. For God’s sake go! And take team druid with you!

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Beneath the placid surface of Labour conference, discontent stirred

03/10/2013, 11:28:34 AM

by Rob Marchant

So, Labour made it through conference without a big punch-up with the unions, via a barely-mentioned programme of party reform. Thank heavens for that.

But amidst the conference chatter, a few things have become clear.

A line has been drawn under the Falkirk selection fiasco, yes. But it was a face-saving, uneasy truce, not a final settlement. Unite is not suddenly going to start behaving itself and standing back from the Labour party’s organisation at this point, that much is obvious.

Yet, if Labour wins its battle to reform its relationship with unions next spring, there is the possibility that Unite – and others – could step back from Labour altogether and look for other political routes to influence, such as the nascent People’s Assembly, currently being sponsored by a number of unions. Whatever happens, there is – rightly – extreme nervousness on the part of many activists as to whether the party can actually survive on the income which might result.

But if Labour does not win that battle – for which it depends on union support to win – it can look forward, surely, to a redoubling of Unite’s efforts to influence its selections and elsewhere.

A couple of conference vignettes from the Tuesday night of Labour conference illustrate this nicely.

In choosing to run a joint fringe event, the Venezuela Solidarity Campaign (VSC) no longer chooses to hide its similarity with the Cuba Solidarity Campaign, which supports a dictator rather than an authoritarian pseudo-democrat (a fine distinction for most of us, I know).

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HS2 should be shunted to the sidings

01/10/2013, 02:55:36 PM

by Rob Williams

The ill-conceived HS2 project loses more support by the day. The Public Accounts Committee recently published a report which says it is beset by spiralling costs, a lack of expertise and unrealistic delivery timetables. In the summer, Peter Mandelson and former Transport Secretary Alistair Darling argued that this is one infrastructure scheme that really deserves to hit the buffers.

Now, shadow treasury chief secretary Rachel Reeves, said Labour would cancel it “if we don’t think it’s good value for money and costs continue to rise”.

The economic case for HS2, always rather weak, gets worse by the week,. The cost of this already expensive project has been revealed to have gone up by £10 billion to £42 billion. And this excludes the actual trains to run on the line, which would add another £7 billion.

Perhaps this is why the government doesn’t talk too much about the Business Case for HS2 any more (it is now close to 1:1, which means, basically, that there is no benefit). And much of that benefit is based on the ridiculous assumption that business travellers do no work on trains.

So now Patrick McLoughlin says cutting 20 minutes off journey times between London and Birmingham is “almost irrelevant. It should always have been about capacity.” Well, yes. Increasing capacity on the railways is certainly necessary but the trouble is, with HS2 increased capacity will take a long, long time to deliver. Phase 1 of HS2 on its own – the London to Birmingham line – will not be running until 2026 at the very earliest. We are going to have a long wait for the next high speed train.

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There is a simple Tory response on energy prices and Labour needs to beware

30/09/2013, 09:42:23 AM

by Jonathan Todd

Ed Miliband provided answers to some questions posed by Uncut in the book we launched at Labour conference. Less so, others.

We asked where the money will come from. He committed to 200,000 extra homes a year without – unlike David Talbot’s chapter in our book – making clear from where the extra public resources needed to deliver this will come.

Miliband did tell us where the money for his promised energy price freeze will come from, the companies themselves. It is an imponderable whether this will result in reduced profits for them or diminishment in the green investment that Miliband treasures.

It is clear, however, that without the costs of this investment, there would be greater scope for lower household bills. Whether this investment will sufficiently dampen the impacts of climate change to justify its hefty cost is another imponderable.

The incoming prime minister of Australia is among those who doubt it. The prime minister of this country will have noted this and knows that reducing the green push will increase the scope to minimise household bills before May 2015. If Cameron were to take this option, the energy firms will align with Cameron, as both leaders would be telling them to reduce prices but only one would be enabling them to reduce costs – assuming Miliband remains faithfully green.

The public may see their bills fall before 2015 – a record of delivery for Cameron, potentially to sit alongside a steadily improving economy. Rather than return him to office, the public would be asked to vote for a freeze in energy prices by a Labour party likely to be enamoured by the green lobby but less so by business, at least big business.

Miliband needs to get on the front foot about the assistance he has offered to small businesses, while considering exactly how wedded he is to imposing green costs on energy firms. Unless these small businesses become Labour advocates, the party risks being painted as anti-business. Without some flexibility on green costs, Miliband may risk Cameron achieving more on lower energy prices before he is even in a position to implement his freeze.

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C’mon Ed, back an in/out EU referendum for the day of the next election and destroy the Tories

30/09/2013, 07:00:54 AM

by Anthony Bonneville

Europe remains the Tories’ Achilles heel. Polling conducted by YouGov for Labour Uncut reveals that 1 in 5 2010 Tory voters have defected, with 60% switching to UKIP.

These figures will worry an already jittery Conservative party. No matter what David Cameron seems to do, no matter how much he genuflects before the altar of Euroscepticism, it’s never enough. Core support keeps leaching out to the right.

As I’ve set out in my chapter in Labour Uncut’s recent book, “Labour’s manifesto uncut: how to win in 2015 and why,” this peculiar spectacle presents an enormous opportunity for Labour.

On Tuesday evening, the night before David Cameron gives his leader’s speech, Ed Miliband should set aside his widely aired reservations and announce that Labour now backs a straight in/out EU referendum for May 7th 2015.

Such an intervention would transform the political landscape. All that has happened so far this parliament would be rendered instantly irrelevant.

On the pro-European side, a broad coalition would be assembled bringing together unions, business organisations and civil society groups, a true example of One Nation politics. Labour and Lib Dems would stand united on the most important issue of the next general election.

It would force quiet pro-Europeans (distant cousins of the quiet bat people) to come out and say it loud: “We need to stay in Europe!”

For Labour, which has had a difficult recent relationship with business, this would be a rare chance to redraw the dividing lines of political debate.

Labour would be the party standing with business. The Tories would be left making the difficult case that business people did not know what was good for their own firms. For those who recall the damage done to Labour’s 2010 election campaign by the letter from businessmen criticising the party’s national insurance policy, the irony would be rich.

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For hard working people? Come off it Cameron. Here’s the “Top 40” of Tory failures

29/09/2013, 08:00:31 AM

Last year, I wrote a blog for Labour Uncut about Cameron’s top 30 “real achievements”.  But things have got so bad in the last year alone that this year’s round up is now a full “Top 40”.  As the Tories meet this week for their annual conference in Manchester, here’s my latest assessment on what Cameron’s Government has really achieved since 2010:

On the cost of living:

1. Prices have risen faster than wages in 38 out of 39 months while David Cameron has been Prime Minister.

2. Wages are down by almost £1,500 a year on average since the General Election.

3. While ordinary people are seeing their living standards squeezed, David Cameron has cut income tax for people earning over £150,000.  And in April this year, bankers’ bonuses soared by 82 per cent as the wealthiest took advantage of the 50p tax cut.

4. Average energy bills have risen by £300 since David Cameron became Prime Minister whilst Britain’s big six energy companies have enjoyed a £3.3 billion windfall in profits since 2010.

5. David Cameron has broken his promise to force energy companies to put all consumers on the cheapest tariff.

On growth:

6. This is the slowest recovery for 100 years.  Since autumn 2010, our economy has grown by just 1.7 per cent compared to the 6.9 per cent expected at the time.

7. The UK is currently 3.3 per cent below its pre-crisis peak, while the USA is 4.6 per cent above its pre-crisis peak.

On the deficit:

8. David Cameron and George Osborne are now set to borrow £245 billion more than they planned in 2010 and the independent Office for Budget Responsibility has said that deficit reduction has “stalled”.

On jobs:

9. Almost a million young people are unemployed.

10. The number of 16-18 year olds starting apprenticeships is down by 12 per cent in the last year.  Overall, nearly 200,000 16-18 year olds are not in work, education or training, a rise since 2010.

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Letter from Wales: Wales is a living, breathing example of what can be achieved in power!

27/09/2013, 12:19:56 PM

by Julian Ruck

On hearing this I didn’t know whether to burst out loud laughing or nip up to Asda’s for a crate of Johnie Walker to kick me back into reality!

The full quote from Carwyn Jones, first minister of the Welsh government, at the Labour conference is “We are building a Wales that’s a living, breathing example of what Labour can achieve when in government.”

Carwyn then went on to defend Welsh Labour’s record on jobs, the NHS and schools.

Well now, let’s take the jobs angle first. There aren’t any in Wales. And the principality has the highest youth unemployment in the UK.

The Welsh NHS. According to the Welsh government’s own statistics for the quarter ending June 2013 not one of the six Welsh LHB’s reached their cancer waiting times targets and this has been an on-going trend. Keep an eye out for my next column wherein I will be exploring the outrageous failures of the Betsi Cadwaladr University Health Board, the resignation of its Chairman, Professor Mervyn Jones and Welsh health refugees.

Schools. According to the Estyn Report last year, 40% of Welsh school children entering secondary education receive an education that is “barely adequate,” the worst in Europe along with the Czech Republic. Recruitment at Welsh universities is also in terminal decline.

The Welsh economy isn’t referred to in the quote, but Wales has the lowest GDP in Europe and is also one of the most public sector dependent.

Druid Carwyn (member of the Gorsedd of the Bards, blue robes an’ all) must have picked up his particular strain of political mood music from some ancient druidical song being given voice at this year’s Welsh Eisteddfod.

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