Labour Uncut

UNCUT: David Miliband looks to Labour’s future in DC

07/05/2011, 10:25:03 AM

by Jonathan Todd

On the day before his brother’s attendance at the royal wedding, David Miliband was in Washington DC. This followed his tentative steps back towards the philosophical front line with a speech at the LSE on the decline of the left in Europe. Then, at the centre for American progress, he addressed the politics of identity and fear. On both occasions, therefore, he tackled in an international context issues of profound domestic significance.

This approach, obviously, has the advantage of minimising any sense in which David is stepping on Ed’s toes. But such internationalism is also instructive. The challenges facing Labour are similar to those facing social democratic parties elsewhere. The rise of the English Defence League is not the only instance of the search for identity turning ugly. In different ways everything from the birther movement to the success of the True Finns and Thilo Sarrazins can be seen through the same prism.

Miliband identifies “a backlash against globalisation. In the context of a big shift in power from west to east, there are no votes in being an internationalist and there are votes in being nativist”. The west-east shift is involved with a deepening of the global economy, but political impulses form a counter-reaction to this. They may be less pronounced where economies are strong. Canada’s economy is relatively healthy and Bloc Québécois, who might be considered a nativist element in Canadian politics, suffered in recent elections.

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UNCUT: The clouds in last night’s silver lining

06/05/2011, 10:01:59 AM

by Atul Hatwal

As Ed Miliband surveys the results after his first major test as leader he will have mixed emotions. Great in England, good in Wales, bad in Scotland and rapidly forgotten on AV.

A curate’s egg, whatever one of those might be.

While the dynamics of devolved government mean the results in Scotland and Wales are driven by regional factors, and AV is done for a generation at least, it’s the English local elections where the tea leaves for the next general election can be best read.

England is where Labour needs to win the key seats, and its England where Labour has proportionately lost most voters since 1997. Ostensibly, the results give a sound basis for hope.

Not quite street party territory, but at least a couple of glasses of sherry.

On this happy path, the numbers of new Labour councillors elected take Labour back to respectable mid-2000s levels of representation in local government. Gains in a single election on this scale have not been seen since the mid-1990s.

This is not to be lightly dismissed. Revival in local government is an essential pre-requisite for national success.

Then there’s the overall vote share. While not spectacular, it was much improved over the election last year and progress at this rate would lead to a solid Labour majority at the next general election.

But still, there’s doubt.

Can a national result be extrapolated from local elections? Is this really a foundation for victory built by winning back Labour sceptics? Or a house of cards made from passing protest votes?

A few months ago in this column, I highlighted Labour’s poll challenge by looking at three specific questions asked intermittently by YouGov in their daily and weekly polls, and tracked their responses over the previous three months. These questions examined voters’ attitudes to the defining issues for the next general election.

The updated results to Labour’s poll challenge hold the key to interpreting last nights mixed election results.

The three YouGov questions look below topline voting intentions to reveal how voters feel the government is hitting them in the wallet, their view of how the government is cutting the deficit and who they prefer as a leader – David Cameron or Ed Miliband.

The public’s answers over this year have involved responses from tens of thousands of people and give a clear view of the scale of the problem.

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UNBOUND: Friday News Review

06/05/2011, 05:40:58 AM

The start of a long road back

Labour took control of Sheffield early this morning, gaining nine seats from the Lib Dems on leader Nick Clegg’s home turf. In a further blow for the party, Carl Minns leader of Hull council, lost his seat to Labour. The result capped a disastrous night for the Lib Dems. The party was also predicting it “could lose everything” in Liverpool, which has traditionally been a stronghold. In Hull, the party lost ten seats to Labour, with former council leader Mr Minns among the casualties. Labour now has a clear majority in the city. Sheffield, where Mr Clegg has his parliamentary seat, had been governed by the Lib Dems without an absolute majority. The party’s former council leader Paul Scriven insisted that the results were merely a “short-term setback” for the party, and said it should not change direction in response to its drubbing in the polls. Mr Scriven said Lib Dems had to “keep our nerve, keep our backbone and keep bringing fairness to Government and sort out this financial mess”. He told the BBC: “We are in this for the long term, because if not we let the country down.” As the counts were declared in Sheffield, former Labour minister David Blunkett said Cleggmania had become “Clegg pneumonia.” – Yorkshire Post

Liberal Democrat group leader Carl Minns faces being unemployed this morning, having paid the price for cuts which left hundreds of council workers out of a job. In a press conference, Mr Minns admitted his Liberal Democrat party was facing defeat in Hull and losing control of the council. He also conceded that he was facing losing his own seat in Kings Park although the result has yet to be confirmed. He said: “It is clear that the Liberal Democrats are not going to have a good night tonight.” – Hull Daily Mail

Gray has got to go… will go…

SNP leader Alex Salmond promised a referendum on Scottish independence as early results indicated an historic night for his party. Huge inroads have been made into Labour’s central belt strongholds, with John Mason taking the Glasgow Shettleston constituency, James Dornan taking the Cathcart seat and Sandra White winning in Glasgow Kelvin. There were also SNP gains in Strathkelvin and Bearsden, Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse, East Kilbride and Clydesdale. The SNP also snatched Edinburgh Pentlands from the Conservatives – with former Scottish Tory leader David McLetchie losing his seat – and Edinburgh Southern from the Lib Dems. Meanwhile, Labour leader Iain Gray managed to hold his East Lothian seat – but by just 151 votes. He said that the collapse of the Liberal Democrats, who have already lost deposits, may have benefited the SNP. The final winners and losers are not expected to be confirmed until later in the afternoon. Voters are electing 129 MSPs, 73 for constituencies and a further 56 on regional lists. – STV

Alex Salmond was last night on course for a second term as First Minister as voters across Scotland turned away in large numbers from Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Former Labour minister Andy Kerr became the first major scalp of the Holyrood election, losing to the SNP’s Linda Fabiani in the East Kilbride constituency. Mr Kerr, who was Labour’s finance spokesman in the last. Elsewhere, there were widespread signs of a collapse in the Lib Dem vote, with Tavish Scott’s party losing their deposit in the first seat of the night to be declared in Rutherglen, where the SNP vote surged by 16 per cent. The broad picture looks set to deliver an SNP victory and a return to Bute House for Alex Salmond with an increased mandate. If his re-election is confirmed today, Mr Salmond is expected to press ahead with his preferred plan to run a second SNP minority government for the next five years. Early indications last night suggested clearly that he will be in a far stronger position than over the past four years, when he held a one-seat majority over Labour. Labour sources were last night indicating they expected the SNP to beat them in several previously secure seats, and that their rivals could have a double-digit lead in seats by the time all the results came in. The last opinion poll of the campaign, published last night, suggested the SNP had double the support of Labour, and was in sight of a majority on its own. – the Scotsman

Encouraging signs in Wales

Labour fears it may “fall short” of gaining an overall majority in the Assembly elections. The party has led the opinion polls since The Senedd went into recess last month – and was recently tipped to go into government alone following yesterday’s vote. Party sources say they expect some gains and an improvement on the 26 seats it held in the last assembly – but Labour insiders admit they may not be able to surpass the “magic figure” of 31 needed to claim an overall majority. First Minister Carwyn Jones, who attended the count in Bridgend, has downplayed those suggestions – saying the result is still too early to call. – Western Mail

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HOME: Caption contest: Lefty love in special

05/05/2011, 11:46:12 AM

“The party is split” read the headlines. “Labour is dangerously divided over electoral reform” they said. They wish. Tomorrow a temporary division will come to an end. If Huhne and Clegg thought the AV campaign was bad – wait until the Labour assasins are reunited.

Where does he get those shirts?

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UNCUT: Some people still believe in democracy

05/05/2011, 07:00:35 AM

by Peter Watt

When you are involved in politics in an active way it can be quite easy to forget what really matters. The fight becomes more important than the victory. Scoring points and getting one over on your opponents become what really matters. Of course losing is tough – but it is all too often actually losing, rather than the consequences of losing, that hurts the most. It is easy to see why this happens; politics can be an emotionally bruising affair. Getting on involves hours of leafleting, meetings and door knocking. You take to the stump armed only with your credibility and after all those hours spent on a single endeavour – winning – the outcome is obviously going to be felt pretty personally. All in all, politics can be a pretty nasty addiction if you get seriously hooked.

The AV referendum campaign has been a particularly classic case of a campaign fought between addicts. It has felt exclusive, otherworldly and somehow just not important. The key campaign messages seemed to be more point scoring between people in an elite club. There was a certainly a lot of shouting and calculation of the most tribally beneficial outcome. Yah-boo politics of the worst kind. As a result, the campaign has passed most non-politicos by. In fact, it has passed many politicos by as well.

It certainly hasn’t been the celebration of democratic renewal that I suspect the Yes campaign hoped for – whatever the result.

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UNBOUND: Thursday News Review

05/05/2011, 06:54:33 AM

Super Thursday

Voters across the UK are set to go to the polls in a series of national and local elections as well as a referendum to decide the way MPs are elected. Elections for the Scottish Parliament, the Welsh Assembly and the Northern Ireland Assembly will be held as will polls in 279 English councils. The public will also be asked if they want to keep the first-past-the-post system for Westminster elections or switch to the alternative vote. Polls open at 0700 BST closing at 2200. In addition, local authority elections are being held in Northern Ireland while there is a UK parliamentary by-election in the constituency of Leicester South. Contests are also taking place to elect mayors in Leicester, Mansfield, Middlesbrough, Torbay and Bedford. The BBC weather forecast suggests that most of the UK will remain dry on Thursday with above average temperatures, but that there is a chance of rain in Northern Ireland. – BBC News

D-Day for AV

Today is the day we collectively say there is a better way, there is a fairer alternative to miserable ConDem austerity. Labour is the only political party with the interests of low- and middle-income families at its heart. It is the only political party which recognises the value of public services to ordinary families. We recommend a vote for Labour and, buoyed by winning hundreds of seats, we hope leader Ed Miliband will take the fight to the Conservative-led coalition. And a Yes vote in the nationwide referendum on how we elect MPs would say No to David Cameron. A Yes would shackle the Conservatives, the fairer Alternative Vote system making it less likely the Tories could ever rule alone. That is a prize well worth seizing. We understand the temptation to vote No to give turncoat Mr Clegg a deserved kicking. But this is a once-in-a-generation chance to adopt a better electoral system. Vote Labour and vote Yes for fairer votes. – Daily Mirror

The Referendum on whether Britain should switch to the fiendishly-complicated Alternative Vote electoral system has been a truly depressing affair. The campaign was slow to begin, decidedly lacklustre and — in recent weeks — poisoned by the lies, cynicism and personal insults of the desperate Yes camp. The result has been widespread public apathy. The crucial final few days have been utterly dominated by the Royal Wedding and the killing of Osama Bin Laden. Turnout is expected to be pathetically low. The Daily Mail is urging all its readers to vote tomorrow – and vote NO to Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg’s AV proposal But make no mistake: the outcome of the referendum could not be more vital for the future of this country. That is why the Mail urges all our readers to vote tomorrow, whatever their misgivings about the campaign — and vote No. – Daily Mail

Liberals face wipe-out with Labour set to gain in England

The Liberal Democrats are bracing themselves for the loss of up to 600 seats in Thursday’s local elections in England, prompting fears that their activist base across the country could be devastated. The elections for 9,000 seats in 279 English authorities are being seen as the first electoral verdict on the coalition’s spending cuts, with Labourexpecting major gains and senior Lib Dems admitting they face punishment in some areas for the role they have played in the coalition. Richard Kemp, leader of the Lib Dems in the Local GovernmentAssociation, said: “We’re doing well against the Tories, not so well against Labour. We will make losses as any governing party does. We will clearly, undoubtedly lose seats. 300 would be a good day, 600 would be a bad day.” Labour is expected to make major gains across the country, symbolically taking control from the Lib Dems in Sheffield, where Nick Clegg has his constituency. It has also targeted Newcastle upon Tyne and Hull. Tory-held North Warwickshire, Trafford, Dudley and Walsall are believed to be vulnerable to Labour, which has also put efforts into Dover. – the Guardian

Party leader Nick Clegg’s city of Sheffield is Labour’s number one target, with a swing of only four per cent needed to capture the council. Newcastle-upon-Tyne, Bristol, St Albans and Kingston-upon-Hull are all also vulnerable following the Lib Dems’ recent collapse in the polls. Overall, Liberal Democrat chiefs are preparing to lose at least 400 councillors, and privately fear that as many as 600, a third of those up for election, could be kicked out of town halls around the country. Opinion polls suggest that the Conservatives are also likely to lose hundreds of councillors, but as they start from a far higher base, with more than half of the 9,400 seats being contested, the losses will represent less of a bloodbath. More than 31 million voters are eligible to take part in today’s elections, which cover around half of all the council seats in the country, the biggest round of local elections of the cycle. The last time the same seats were up for election, in 2007, the Tories won 40 per cent, with Labour on a low of 26 per cent and the Lib Dems on 24 per cent. Labour is hoping to win back as many as 1,000 from both of the Coalition parties, with a particular emphasis on taking advantage of Mr Clegg’s current unpopularity to capture key councils. – Daily Telegraph

Mixed picture for Labour in Scotland and Wales

A YouGov poll released yesterday shows Alex Salmond’s party on course for a comfortable victory. This replicated another poll the previous day, but Labour’s deputy Scottish leader Johann Lamont claimed the survey showed almost two million voters had still to make up their minds. “With over half of all voters undecided how they will vote, this poll shows it is all to play for,” she said. “The SNP are arrogantly slapping themselves on the back before a single vote has been cast, but the only poll that matters is polling day and every hour until the polls close Labour will be fighting for every vote. Yesterday’s poll showed Labour would remain on 46 seats while the SNP would gain seven, taking them to 54. It also suggested the Liberal Democrats would drop nine seats to be left with just seven while the Conservatives would lose one seat, leaving them on 16. The poll figures suggest the Green Party would gain three seats, bringing them to five, and there would be one Independent, almost certainly Margo MacDonald – Daily Herald

Whatever chance there might have been of the National Assembly election campaign focusing on Welsh issues was blown away by the result of last year’s General Election. Even before Labour’s defeat last year, some of its senior AMs in vulnerable seats were expressing the view that the arrival of a Tory-led Government at Westminster imposing public sector spending cuts would prove to be their salvation. Things would have been so much different if Gordon Brown had snatched victory from the jaws of defeat and himself been in the position of imposing cuts. As it is, the prediction of those Labour AMs last year seems likely to come to pass. Labour supporters, both core and soft, have a traditional enemy in power at Westminster to vote against. The party has been able in Wales to capitalise on the fear of cuts in a nation that has a disproportionately high number of public sector workers. Another astute factor in Labour’s campaign has been its presentation of Carwyn Jones as a national leader – almost, dare it be said, a Welsh nationalist leader. Certainly Plaid Cymru has been left at a disadvantage by Labour’s appropriation of rhetoric formerly its own. Who at a previous election would have expected any party but Plaid to use as its campaign slogan, and as the title of its manifesto, “Standing up for Wales”? – Western Mail

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UNCUT: No to PR, Yes to AV

04/05/2011, 08:07:14 PM

by Tom Watson

When Roy Jenkins recommended a change in the electoral system twelve years ago I helped lead the campaign to defeat it and preserve the first past the post system. I was dead against any form of proportional representation then and I still am now. But whilst I remain as firmly opposed to proportional representation as ever, I have become convinced that our current first past the post system is in need of reform and upgrading. That is why I am supporting the campaign to introduce the alternative vote and will be voting Yes in tomorrow’s referendum.

The main objections I have to proportional representation do not apply to the alternative vote system. One of my main concerns has always been that PR would give the BNP a greater chance of gaining representation at Westminster. But that is even less likely with AV than FPTP. That is why the BNP have come out to say they will be supporting a No vote in the referendum. AV is the anti-extremist system. With AV, no-one can get elected unless most people back them. Therefore the risk of extremist parties being elected by the back door is eliminated.

Another of my traditional objections to PR was that it will lead to unstable government. But hung parliaments are no more likely with AV than with first past the post. As the recent election showed, first past the post has not given Britain any special immunity to hung parliaments. The result at the last election was not an exception. It is the result of long-term changes in our voting patterns here in the UK which means the current voting system can no longer be relied upon to deliver a clear-cut result with a strong and stable single-party system previously the strongest argument for preserving first past the post.

The last of my major objections to PR, and to the hybrid system Roy Jenkins put forward, was that it was too complicated and alien to the way we have always voted. But AV, in contrast, couldn’t be more straightforward. It simply allows you to choose your candidates in order of your preference. It is literally as easy as 1,2,3. For voters, it simply means swapping an X on your ballot paper for a 1,2,3. And if you still want to vote for only one candidate you can.

So the alternative vote doesn’t have the disadvantages I have always associated with PR. But it does offer advantages that I believe will help change the way we do our politics for the better. Read the rest of this entry »

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UNCUT: Half a minute Harris

04/05/2011, 04:20:34 PM

Episode 8: Fingers crossed tomorrow’s AV result keeps it out of the next manifesto

You can catch up with previous episodes here:

Episode 1: Welcome, Uncut readers, to the mind of Tom Harris

Episode 2: Should we abstain on the welfare reform bill?

Episode 3: How’s that working out for you Polly?

Episode 4: Student visas… I’m with Theresa May on this one

Episode 5: A distraction from the main event

Episode 6: Ollie Letwin and the common people

Episode 7: Why I’m backing an in/out referendum on the EU

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UNCUT: How to organise a political stag night

04/05/2011, 07:00:42 AM

by Sunder Katwala

Everybody loves a good wedding (except, obviously, for those objecting to the celebrations last Friday on grounds of republicanism, public expense or patriarchy).

So, when tomorrow’s knocking-up of the vote is done, and the AV hurly-burly is gone, Labour thoughts will naturally turn to the happy prospect of the union of Ed and Justine.

There will doubtless be much blue Labour bunting hung out by Maurice Glasman’s traditionalist band to celebrate the Labour leader’s conversion to the cause of matrimony.

Less happily, Ed also chose the holiday period, while shooting a few frames of pool with Mr Murdoch’s man from the Sun, to not only kill off “Red Ed”, but also to deliver a pointed snub to his allies in the Fabian Society. (He also took the up the offer to pose with the paper. Tony Blair did so with the headline “the Sun Backs Blair”. “Rooney hooker bedded married actor” may be less on message.)

As the Sun reported:

“Ed is finally marrying Justine Thornton, his long-term partner and mother of his two young sons in May. All Ed let slip was: ‘I’m not going to tell you about my stag. But it won’t be two Fabian Society lectures and half a pint of beer, as somebody in Westminster suggested'”.

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UNBOUND: Wednesday News Review

04/05/2011, 06:50:52 AM

Huhne gets cross as ‘No’ lead grows

The fractious Coalition split over voting reform led to a Cabinet confrontation yesterday when the Liberal Democrat Energy Secretary attacked David Cameron and George Osborne over the tactics being used by the ‘No’ campaign. The fractious Coalition split over voting reform led to a Cabinet confrontation yesterday when the Liberal Democrat Energy Secretary attacked David Cameron and George Osborne over the tactics being used by the ‘No’ campaign. Chris Huhne expressed his anger with the Prime Minister and Chancellor over claims made by the ‘No’ campaign in leaflets published ahead of this Thursday’s referendum on whether to adopt the Alternative Vote system. Some sources described a “bit of a bust up” as the Energy secretary “went for” Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne. The Daily Telegraph understands that Mr Huhne waved the ‘No to AV’ leaflets at the pair at the beginning of yesterday’s Cabinet meeting in Downing Street and protested about their content. One Liberal Democrat source said that Mr Huhne wanted to raise concerns “felt by lots of Liberal Democrat supporters on the Yes side” about the No campaign. – the Telegraph

The No to AV campaign have opened up a 32 point lead according to a ComRes poll for the Independent. The poll follows a day of high profile clashes over campaign tactics, with Chris Huhne directly challenging David Cameron and George Osborne to “disassociate” themselves from the NO to AV campaign at this morning’s Cabinet meeting. The Chancellor rebuked the Energy Secretary, saying his behaviour was inappropriate and that Cabinet was the wrong place to raise such grievances. – Politics Home

Labour struggle to match SNP in Scotland

Over the course of the campaign that advantage has not just vanished, it has been turned into such a thumping SNP lead that the latest poll published last night by TNS-BMRB for Scottish Television forecast abject humiliation for Labour tomorrow. That poll gave the SNP a whopping 18-point lead on the constituency vote and a 13-point lead on the list vote. This was not a one-off, though. It was merely the latest in a series of polls creating “clear tartan water” between the Nationalists and their rivals – according to Alex Salmond. The SNP’s 2007 Scottish Parliament victory (by a single seat) was seen by many observers as a blip, an aberration, something which would be righted this year. But if Labour loses again tomorrow and, more importantly, if Labour loses by a substantial margin, then it will be clear that the ground has shifted in Scottish politics, perhaps forever. – the Independent

Early election speculation rumbles on

Many [Conservatives] hope a debacle for the Lib Dems and the pro-AV camp tomorrow will be the end of that party’s calling the shots. The common view is that the Lib Dems have nowhere else to go. Maybe over the coming weekend there will be calls for Mr Clegg’s head on a plate from his notional supporters. Maybe even some Lib Dem MPs not on the payroll will signal their unwillingness to co-operate further, for fear of their own demise at the next election. Most Tories are quite relaxed about this. Mr Cameron himself is so devoid of principle that he will no doubt be happy either way… Mr Cameron has probably the best opportunity he will ever have to win a majority if he were to choose after these polls to call a general election. Although Labour will do well on Thursday, it will be almost entirely at the expense of the Lib Dems. Its leader, Ed Miliband, would be damaged by his support for the presumably lost cause of AV. His party is badly split on it, and all those in it one feels the need to take seriously are not on his side. – the Telegraph

Lansley favourite to go

Buy Dorrell and sell Lansley. That is the advice doing the rounds at senior levels of the Whitehall stock exchange. Britain’s grandest share market, run by the Sir Humphreys who preside over Whitehall departments, has reached a settled view. Stephen Dorrell, Sir John Major’s last health secretary, is on course to replace Andrew Lansley, the current holder of the post, when the “listening exercise” on NHS reforms ends next month. The mandarins have concluded that Lansley is a busted flush for one simple reason: the coalition will never be able to sell its NHS reforms as long as he remains in office. Over the cheap coffee served at their meetings – the days of a whisky in grand clubs are long gone – the permanent secretaries believe Lansley is now a liability as David Cameron and Nick Clegg attempt to strike a difficult balance on the NHS. On one hand the prime minister and his deputy need to continue with the spirit of the reforms to hand commissioning powers to GPs. On the other hand Cameron and Clegg have to show that real and substantive changes are being introduced to the reforms. – the Guardian