Lib Dem rating at all time low

Support for the Liberal Democrats has slumped to its lowest level since the party was formed in 1988, according to The Independent’s “poll of polls”. Nick Clegg is now the most unpopular third party leader since David Owen led the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in 1989. The Liberal Democrats’ 11 per cent rating in the first poll of polls since last May’s election highlights the dramatic slide in their fortunes since they entered the Coalition with the Conservatives. The 57 Liberal Democrat MPs would be reduced to a rump of just 15 at the next election if this level of support were to be repeated then. Labour is now on 40 per cent and the Tories on 38 per cent, giving Labour an overall majority of 14, according to the weighted average of the regular surveys by ComRes, ICM, Ipsos MORI and YouGov. John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, who compiled the figures, said that the costs and benefits of the Coalition had been distributed very unevenly between the two parties in it. “It is clear that the tone and direction of the Coalition Government has upset many people who voted Liberal Democrat in May, and before, while for the most part those who voted Conservative have been reasonably content with what has transpired,” he said. – Independent

Nick Clegg and Theresa May at war over control orders

Nick Clegg has yet to strike a deal with the increasingly determined home secretary, Theresa May, over how to replace control orders or allow suspected terrorists to be detained for more than 14 days without charge in exceptional circumstances.

Faced by growing calls from senior former cabinet members to retain control orders, it appears that the Liberal Democrat leader is willing to seek a compromise, and will recognise that some form of replacement to control orders is necessary – even though in opposition he called for their outright abolition… Clegg is facing a fraught battle to balance the needs of civil liberties and national security, as well as prevent a public falling out between two distinguished Liberal Democrats peers: Lord Carlile, the government reviewer of terrorism until last week, and Lord Macdonald, the man appointed at the insistence of Clegg to monitor the terrorism review. – Guardian

DAVID Cameron is to hold crisis talks with Nick Clegg amid signs the row over control orders is threatening to shatter the fragile coalition. Mr Clegg wants the measures, which force terrorist suspects to observe a curfew and wear a tag, to be scrapped. But he is locked in a bitter row with Home Secretary Theresa May. Mr Cameron has called an urgent meeting ahead of next week’s Cabinet. No?10 hinted he was unwilling to give any ground, saying UK security was above party politics. – The Mirror

Lib Dems crumble in Oldham

The Liberal Democrats will not win the Oldham by-election next week. The Tories might, though. They were around 2000 down in May and I don’t perceive that their support has fallen by a great deal. Remember, this is one of the few parts of the country where a sizeable group of people define themselves as “Liberal”.  From the times I’ve been on the doorstep in Oldham (it’s not often), it is these “Liberals” who most feel the betrayal. They’re turning on Clegg. Many will stay at home. Some will vote Labour. A smaller group will go Tory. A Tory win is the only thing that all three party leaders don’t want. It would be comical if the consequences weren’t so serious. If we lose (and if we don’t turn out our natural supporters on a cold day in January, we will), Ed Miliband will be in the firing line of the anonymous (though we all know who they are) briefers near to the shadow cabinet. Yet defeat causes greater problems for the government. The Lib Dems need this seat to remain credible. If their coalition partners win, it will be a catastrophe for Clegg and, therefore, an irritation for Cameron. – Tom Watson, Labour Uncut

David Cameron and Nick Clegg will use the Oldham East by-election to quash claims the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives are planning a permanent merger. The Deputy Prime Minister will claim the by-election is a two horse race between the Liberal Democrats and Labour when he visits the constituency later today. He will also tell a town hall meeting that his party will run in every seat in 2015, instead of forming any electoral pact with the Conservatives. David Cameron is expected to visit later in the week, perhaps as soon as tomorrow. – PoliticsHome

VAT rise puts jobs at risk

The 2.5% hike in VAT which comes into effect at midnight tonight will cost families almost £400 a year and put up to 250,000 jobs at risk, Labour leader Ed Miliband warned today. He accused both of the parties in the ruling coalition of breaking election promises on tax, reminding voters that Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg campaigned against a “Tory VAT bombshell”, while Conservatives promoted a “fuel duty stabiliser” to reduce levies on petrol when prices are high at the pump. The increase to 20% will force up the cost not only of a tank of petrol, but also of regular purchases like a mobile phone call, cup of coffee or DVD, he said. But he was accused of “opportunism” by Chancellor George Osborne, who challenged him to explain what he would cut to make up for the revenue he would lose by scrapping the planned VAT increase. – Independent

The rate of Value Added Tax rose by 2.5 percentage points at midnight, from 17.5 per cent to 20 per cent – an attempt by the Coalition to reduce the deficit. But analysts believe many gyms, mobile phone companies, restaurants and shops will raise their prices by between 5 per cent and 8 per cent, or possibly more. To recoup the escalating cost of petrol, energy, cotton and other key commodities, they are expected to use the tax change to obscure far larger price increases. This could add far more to a family’s annual expenditure than previously expected. Ed Miliband, the Labour leader, said yesterday that the VAT rise would cost the average family almost £400 a year and put 250,000 jobs at risk. Campaigning in the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election, Mr Miliband cited a Liberal Democrat poster from last year’s general election, that warned a “Tory VAT bombshell” would cost households £7.50 a week. – The Telegraph

The government claims that the alternative to today’s VAT rise is bigger spending cuts. But that isn’t true. Yes, the coalition government needed to set out a credible framework for stabilising the national debt, but its decision to tighten the screws so far and so fast was a political choice. It wouldn’t surprise me if Osborne was planning pre-election tax cuts for 2014. Instead of raising VAT and national insurance this year, the government could introduce taxes on carbon and financial transactions next year. And it should levy a tax on land values. Since all the land in Britain is worth some £5 trillion, an annual levy of 1% could raise £50bn a year – without depressing economic activity, because land is in fixed supply: central London can’t be spirited away to a tax haven. As well as preventing property bubbles (and busts), a land tax would be fair. A mere 160,000 people (mostly hereditary landowners) own more than two-thirds of Britain – and the value of that land increases not through their own striving, but through that of others. – The Guardian Read the rest of this entry »

VAT increase will hit hard

The planned rise in VAT is the “wrong tax, at the wrong time”, Labour leader Ed Miliband is to warn. Speaking ahead of Tuesday’s VAT increase from 17.5% to 20%, Mr Miliband will claim it will cost the average family £7.50 a week. He will say the rise, considered but rejected by Labour, will hit “living standards, small businesses and jobs”. But the Conservatives say Labour’s plans for the economy would cost businesses billions of pounds. The government hopes the VAT increase will raise £13bn and insists it is necessary to help reduce the UK’s deficit. The Labour leader is set to issue his warning on Monday during a visit to the constituency of Oldham East and Saddleworth, where a by-election is to take place on 13 January. He will say the VAT rise on most goods and services will hinder economic growth, cost thousands of jobs and make it even harder for families to make ends meet when they are already feeling squeezed. “Today we start to see the Tory-led agenda move from Downing Street to your street,” Mr Miliband will warn. – BBC

The shameless Chancellor jetted off on a luxury skiing holiday – leaving Britain to suffer the backlash of his vicious policies. He went on the piste as struggling families faced huge rises in fuel duties, rail fares and VAT. That’s not to mention benefit reductions, pay cuts, job losses and the rise in university tuition fees. Last night furious union chiefs said the top Tory’s latest jaunt made a mockery of his claim that “we’re all in this together”. Millionaire Mr Osborne is staying with wife Frances and their two children at a trendy boutique hotel in the Swiss resort of Klosters. They have enjoyed almost a week of fun on the slopes – just before the Coalition’s stinging 2.5% VAT hike hits the high street. – The Mirror

Hundreds of poor families and young people may miss out on emergency welfare assistance for essential items such as beds for children, cookers and fridges because of this week’s VAT increase, charities warn. People in urgent need of specific household items – for instance those who have had to move swiftly to escape domestic violence, or who have lost their belongings in a house fire – can apply to charitable organisations for small, quickly delivered sums to meet their most pressing needs when they have exhausted state help. But charities warned of a “perfect storm” as the rise in the VAT rate from 17.5% to 20% on Tuesday increases prices and cuts the number of grants awarding bodies can make – at a time when applications are rising and funds dwindling because the interest earned on charities’ investments has plummeted. – Guardian

Campaign kicks on in Oldham East

Campaigning will get under way in earnest this week in the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election, the first big test of public opinion since the creation of the coalition government. Both Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband will pay their second visits to the constituency, which Labour won last year with a majority of just 103 over the Liberal Democrats. David Cameron, who has faced accusations he secretly wants his coalition partners to win the contest on 13 January, is also due to visit this week. In a sign of Liberal Democrat anxiety about their prospects, their former leader, Charles Kennedy, deputy leader, Simon Hughes, president, Tim Farron, and several ministers will also bang the drum for the party. Mr Miliband will say during a visit today: “The battle in Oldham and across the country is about Labour and this Conservative-led government. “It may be a three-way fight for Oldham East and Saddleworth between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Tories. But it’s only a two-way fight about the direction for the country.” – Independent Read the rest of this entry »