by Atul Hatwal
The full analysis of these polling figures is in a new book “Labour’s Reset: The Path Back to Power” released this week. Click here to download it. The book looks at the barriers for voters in picking Labour, what the party can do in opposition to tackle these issues and the type of policy platform that would attract switchers to Labour at the election
Exclusive polling conducted for Labour Uncut by Yonder (the new name for Populus) has revealed that a majority of swing voters believe their household finances will be worse under a Conservative government compared to a Labour government.
Traditionally, the Conservatives have won the electoral war of the wallet with voters tending to believe their personal finances will be better off under the Tories than Labour, even when Labour is in the ascendant.
However, this latest polling shows that there’s an 11% majority, 46% to 35% among prospective Labour switchers that disagreed with the statement “I think my household will be better off under the Conservatives than Labour”
Even more striking is how this majority explodes among the groups nearer to switching to Labour. Looking at these segments who comprise 60% of potential switchers and whose electoral impact would be to take Labour north of 40% in the polls, the majority is +40%, 62% to 22%.
Yonder polled a nationally representative sample of 2,010 respondents on the 12th and 13th of September. Respondents who were not backing Labour were asked whether they would consider supporting the party at the next election – just over 1 in 4 (26%) said they might switch, which included 1 in 7 Conservative voters. These respondents were then asked to classify themselves on a scale of 0-5 to indicate their proximity to switching, where 5 was very close and 0 was very far and asked the extent to which they agreed/disagreed with a series of statements, drawn from previous research, that describe Labour negatives.
If Labour were to win voter groups that said they were 5, 4 and 3 on the above scale in terms of proximity to switching, that would take the party into the low forties in vote share. The poll numbers used in the analysis were unweighted and typically the act of weighting by a pollster adds points on the unweighted score, primarily by redistributing don’t knows. Labour’s specific vote share if these switchers backed the Party would depend on the pollster’s weighting methodology but regardless of approach, it would put the election result on a knife’s edge.
Needless to say, there are many serious obstacles on the path between considering supporting Labour and becoming a Labour voter. The ongoing influence of Jeremy Corbyn, Labour’s problems with antisemitism and perception as being more concerned with minorities than mainstream voters are all addressed in the full analysis of this polling in Labour’s Reset: The Path Back to Power. Labour’s conference last week was positive in terms of internal party management but the party presented itself as divided to the country. There are huge issues that need to be tackled.
But the presence of these majorities for Labour, in terms of which party will make voters’ better off, is not to be underestimated, particularly at a time when the cost of living is paramount in public concerns. It’s indicative of the depth of underlying damage that the Conservatives have done to their historic brand that Labour is seen as better for voters’ wallets and suggests the breadth of opportunity there is for Labour, if only Keir Starmer can knock down its negatives and clear away the barriers to switching.
Atul Hatwal is editor of Labour Uncut
Tags: Atul Hatwal, household finances, Labour's reset: the path back to power, party that will make you better off, polls, wallets
Back to completely misunderstanding and misquoting polls I see Atul. Not once in a decade have tyou ever interpreted polls correctly. You just look at the headline figure and draw a mickey-mouse conclusion, usually using a decidely lower second division pollster.
And now the moment you have been waiting for – polling figures for September.
AUGUST
Across August there were 22 polls conducted at various times by all the major polling agencies. Polling average was (figure in brackets compared to last month)
Con 39.4% (-1.0%)
Lab 34.8% (n/c)
LDem 9.0% (-0.6)
Grn 6.4% (+0.5%)
Oth 10.5% (-0.1%)
ave lead Con over Lab – 4.59% (-2.19%)
September was pretty volatile for all major parties as the month rolled on. The Tories ranged between 33-41%, Labour ranged between 31-38% and the LDems between 7-12%. Labour equalled the Tories in one poll (Opinium, 9-11 Sep) and showed a slight lead over them in another (YouGov, 8-9 Sep). Both were conspicuus by their ‘bucking’ of the overall trend and were almost certainly short term reaction to the NI rise. The final quarter of the month showed that the Tories had recovered slightly ‘settled’ somewhere around 40% and that Labour had – after having generally risen mid-month, had settled somwhere around 34%. As in previous months there appears to be very very little cross-over from Red to Blue or Blue to Red. What appears to be happening is shifts between Tory and Reform on one side, and drifting between Labour, Lib Dem, Green, SNP and Plaid on the other.
Comparison
General Election 12 Dec 2019:
GB only – Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%
GB lead Con over Lab – 11.7%
Polling figures for 2021 (186 polls)
Con 41.5%, Lab 34.8%, LDem 9.0%, Grn 5.5%, Oth 10.1%
(Oth includes SNP, Plaid, Reform, UKIP)
ave lead Con over Lab 2021 – 6.53%
Polling figures for August (22 polls)
Con 39.4%, Lab 34.8%, LDem 9.0%, Grn 6.4%, Oth 10.5%
ave lead Con over Lab Aug – 4.59%
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SCOTLAND
Several polls during the month that average out as:
Westminster
SNP 49% (+2), SCon 22% (-3), SLab 18% (nc), SLD 6% (nc), SGP 2% (nc), Oth 3% (+1)
There have been no Scotland-specific polls conducted there since June
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WALES
One poll was carried out, the first one since May (Change from May in brackets):
Lab 37% (nc), Con 31% (-5), Plaid 15% (+1), LD 4% (+1), Reform 6% (+2), Grn 5% (+2), Oth 2% (-1)
(GE2019 Lab 40.9%, Con 36.1%, Plaid 9.9%, LD 6.0%, Reform/BXP 5.4%, Grn 1.0%, Oth 0.7%)
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RED WALL Seats
One poll carried out since April, which was carried out by a different pollster and thus will be different methodology. (change from April in brackets):
Con 44% (nc), Lab 38% (-7), LD 4% (+3), Oth 14% (+11)
(GE2019: Con 47.7%, Lab 39.1%, LD 4.8%, Oth 8.3%)
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Other specific polling shows Remain voting tory seats(Blue Wall) with an increasingTory lead, and specific Ethnic Minority voting patterns showing the Tories static, a marked decine in Labour and a marked surge to minority interest parties.
Well Uncut surprised, surprise you have actually posted something positive for a change. Business, of course, does take notice of finances. Rachel Reeves’ presentation at Conference was well received. One small business owner said to me that if Labour had continued with advocating for the minimum wage of £15 an hour it would have put many out of business. The same business person went on to say “I like Kier Starmer” Also situations such as war and pandemics change the landscape for many. The cost of everything is going up. Fuel (if you can get it) and food are going up. This is hitting every household. Now wasn’t it Thatcher who said that the Nation’s financials should be run like a household budget.
So if there was a general election today the Tories would get a majority of 10
With .the libdems in 9% Snd reform in 2.5%
Both of which could have voters go back to the Tories
Few typos in my monthly round-up above. Everywhere it says August’, read that as September.
And a ‘quickie’. Can anyone on here decipher what the meaning of Labour’s statement to it’s staff: ‘Labour will work in multi-disciplined teams, adopt a product-mindset using agile ceremonies, be empowered to make decisions and encouraged to focus on rapid proto-typing, deployment and iteration’.?
I have yet to find a Labour voter round here (there are still some left) who has the slightest idea and most of them I know are decodedly better educated middle class types (teachers, public sector managers and what not) so your bog standard Joe Bloggs has got no chance.
In an ideal world.
Margaret Thatcher sometimes lacked judgement.
John, 10 on paper but bigger in reality. Sinn Fein refuse to take their seats. But this is based on constituencies as they are now.
The next GE will see significant boundary changes with an increase in seats in England and a reduction in seats in Wales, Scotland & Northern Ireland as the constituencies are evened out to reflect the number of registered voters more accurately and more are deliberately made marginal to increase competition.